Senate
Chance of R control>99 in 100
Republicans are favored to hold control. Republicans hold 24 of 33 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 9.3 of 33 · 80% range 9–11
See all 33 districts →One state, every federal race and the provisional balance of power in its capitol.
Counties colored by the projected margin — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast above. Hover a county for its numbers.
| Franklin | 291,555 (68.4%) | 128,869 (30.3%) | D+38.2 | 425,962 |
| Cuyahoga | 286,008 (69.7%) | 119,190 (29.0%) | D+40.6 | 410,535 |
| Hamilton | 178,975 (61.3%) | 109,329 (37.4%) | D+23.8 | 292,101 |
| Summit | 113,166 (58.1%) | 79,208 (40.6%) | D+17.4 | 194,908 |
| Montgomery | 99,063 (54.6%) | 80,155 (44.1%) | D+10.4 | 181,579 |
| Lucas | 83,407 (61.4%) | 50,647 (37.3%) | D+24.1 | 135,820 |
| Stark | 57,552 (43.8%) | 72,022 (54.9%) | R+11.0 | 131,281 |
| Butler | 53,730 (41.2%) | 75,130 (57.5%) | R+16.4 | 130,557 |
| Lorain | 58,986 (52.1%) | 52,858 (46.6%) | D+5.4 | 113,317 |
| Warren | 37,592 (37.8%) | 60,626 (60.9%) | R+23.1 | 99,512 |
| Delaware | 47,775 (50.3%) | 46,055 (48.4%) | D+1.8 | 95,066 |
| Lake | 42,812 (46.7%) | 47,626 (52.0%) | R+5.3 | 91,629 |
| Clermont | 28,376 (34.9%) | 51,915 (63.8%) | R+28.9 | 81,349 |
| Mahoning | 41,639 (51.8%) | 37,642 (46.9%) | D+5.0 | 80,325 |
| Medina | 31,719 (41.6%) | 43,578 (57.1%) | R+15.5 | 76,289 |
| Trumbull | 32,743 (47.6%) | 35,165 (51.1%) | R+3.5 | 68,802 |
| Licking | 26,435 (39.0%) | 40,439 (59.7%) | R+20.7 | 67,755 |
| Greene | 28,050 (43.7%) | 35,296 (55.0%) | R+11.3 | 64,180 |
| Fairfield | 25,061 (41.6%) | 34,345 (57.1%) | R+15.4 | 60,188 |
| Portage | 27,875 (47.0%) | 30,651 (51.7%) | R+4.7 | 59,297 |
| Wood | 23,857 (49.5%) | 23,682 (49.2%) | D+0.4 | 48,165 |
| Clark | 18,339 (40.9%) | 25,872 (57.8%) | R+16.8 | 44,793 |
| Miami | 12,852 (30.5%) | 28,785 (68.2%) | R+37.8 | 42,185 |
| Richland | 13,614 (32.7%) | 27,447 (66.0%) | R+33.3 | 41,602 |
| Geauga | 16,360 (41.8%) | 22,258 (56.9%) | R+15.1 | 39,127 |
| Wayne | 12,962 (34.2%) | 24,428 (64.5%) | R+30.3 | 37,882 |
| Columbiana | 10,159 (29.7%) | 23,647 (69.0%) | R+39.4 | 34,251 |
| Allen | 10,745 (32.5%) | 21,874 (66.2%) | R+33.7 | 33,049 |
| Ashtabula | 12,678 (41.0%) | 17,836 (57.7%) | R+16.7 | 30,916 |
| Tuscarawas | 9,966 (32.5%) | 20,302 (66.2%) | R+33.7 | 30,667 |
| Erie | 13,460 (47.5%) | 14,499 (51.2%) | R+3.7 | 28,327 |
| Muskingum | 9,149 (32.6%) | 18,522 (66.1%) | R+33.4 | 28,035 |
| Hancock | 9,222 (34.1%) | 17,470 (64.6%) | R+30.5 | 27,044 |
| Union | 10,030 (37.7%) | 16,206 (61.0%) | R+23.2 | 26,582 |
| Ross | 8,202 (34.9%) | 14,968 (63.8%) | R+28.8 | 23,475 |
| Knox | 7,031 (30.7%) | 15,548 (68.0%) | R+37.2 | 22,876 |
| Jefferson | 7,343 (33.0%) | 14,649 (65.7%) | R+32.8 | 22,282 |
| Scioto | 6,877 (30.9%) | 15,061 (67.8%) | R+36.8 | 22,227 |
| Belmont | 6,749 (30.5%) | 15,085 (68.2%) | R+37.7 | 22,122 |
| Washington | 7,092 (32.1%) | 14,720 (66.6%) | R+34.5 | 22,099 |
| Sandusky | 8,274 (39.1%) | 12,633 (59.6%) | R+20.6 | 21,182 |
| Pickaway | 6,039 (28.9%) | 14,559 (69.8%) | R+40.8 | 20,869 |
| Marion | 6,478 (33.2%) | 12,769 (65.5%) | R+32.3 | 19,501 |
| Huron | 6,177 (31.8%) | 12,970 (66.9%) | R+35.0 | 19,399 |
| Darke | 3,768 (19.6%) | 15,230 (79.1%) | R+59.6 | 19,248 |
| Lawrence | 5,562 (29.2%) | 13,232 (69.5%) | R+40.3 | 19,042 |
| Ashland | 5,315 (28.0%) | 13,445 (70.7%) | R+42.8 | 19,007 |
| Athens | 11,103 (60.5%) | 6,998 (38.2%) | D+22.4 | 18,339 |
| Auglaize | 3,681 (20.2%) | 14,348 (78.6%) | R+58.4 | 18,266 |
| Shelby | 3,579 (19.9%) | 14,214 (78.8%) | R+59.0 | 18,027 |
| Seneca | 6,403 (35.6%) | 11,372 (63.1%) | R+27.6 | 18,009 |
| Ottawa | 7,093 (41.5%) | 9,763 (57.2%) | R+15.6 | 17,078 |
| Mercer | 3,202 (18.9%) | 13,509 (79.8%) | R+60.9 | 16,931 |
| Logan | 4,078 (24.4%) | 12,388 (74.3%) | R+49.8 | 16,683 |
| Fulton | 5,225 (32.6%) | 10,572 (66.1%) | R+33.4 | 16,005 |
| Preble | 3,569 (23.1%) | 11,666 (75.6%) | R+52.5 | 15,436 |
| Brown | 3,486 (22.8%) | 11,600 (75.9%) | R+53.1 | 15,285 |
| Clinton | 3,809 (25.7%) | 10,811 (73.0%) | R+47.3 | 14,813 |
| Madison | 4,713 (32.0%) | 9,829 (66.7%) | R+34.7 | 14,734 |
| Champaign | 4,122 (28.3%) | 10,279 (70.4%) | R+42.2 | 14,591 |
| Crawford | 3,849 (26.7%) | 10,392 (72.0%) | R+45.4 | 14,429 |
| Highland | 3,040 (21.3%) | 11,021 (77.4%) | R+56.0 | 14,246 |
| Putnam | 2,513 (17.8%) | 11,386 (80.9%) | R+63.0 | 14,082 |
| Defiance | 4,686 (34.3%) | 8,790 (64.4%) | R+30.1 | 13,654 |
| Morrow | 3,335 (24.8%) | 9,931 (73.9%) | R+49.1 | 13,441 |
| Williams | 3,804 (29.2%) | 9,054 (69.5%) | R+40.3 | 13,027 |
| Guernsey | 3,489 (27.8%) | 8,890 (70.9%) | R+43.1 | 12,542 |
| Perry | 3,268 (27.0%) | 8,687 (71.7%) | R+44.7 | 12,112 |
| Coshocton | 3,201 (27.5%) | 8,291 (71.2%) | R+43.7 | 11,643 |
| Henry | 3,249 (30.6%) | 7,243 (68.1%) | R+37.6 | 10,630 |
| Van Wert | 2,436 (23.2%) | 7,928 (75.5%) | R+52.3 | 10,500 |
| Jackson | 2,512 (24.7%) | 7,539 (74.0%) | R+49.4 | 10,183 |
| Carroll | 2,528 (25.7%) | 7,194 (73.0%) | R+47.4 | 9,850 |
| Hocking | 3,019 (31.4%) | 6,472 (67.3%) | R+35.9 | 9,616 |
| Gallia | 2,212 (23.9%) | 6,935 (74.8%) | R+51.0 | 9,267 |
| Hardin | 2,380 (25.9%) | 6,692 (72.8%) | R+46.9 | 9,191 |
| Fayette | 2,340 (26.1%) | 6,505 (72.6%) | R+46.5 | 8,961 |
| Adams | 1,746 (19.7%) | 6,999 (79.0%) | R+59.3 | 8,860 |
| Holmes | 1,517 (17.3%) | 7,162 (81.5%) | R+64.2 | 8,793 |
| Pike | 2,393 (27.5%) | 6,204 (71.2%) | R+43.7 | 8,710 |
| Wyandot | 2,205 (27.2%) | 5,808 (71.5%) | R+44.4 | 8,119 |
| Meigs | 1,865 (25.2%) | 5,453 (73.6%) | R+48.4 | 7,414 |
| Paulding | 1,708 (25.8%) | 4,819 (72.9%) | R+47.0 | 6,613 |
| Harrison | 1,302 (25.7%) | 3,700 (73.0%) | R+47.3 | 5,068 |
| Monroe | 1,181 (24.4%) | 3,599 (74.3%) | R+49.9 | 4,843 |
| Morgan | 1,337 (27.7%) | 3,435 (71.0%) | R+43.4 | 4,835 |
| Noble | 895 (20.4%) | 3,440 (78.3%) | R+58.0 | 4,392 |
| Vinton | 995 (24.3%) | 3,042 (74.4%) | R+50.1 | 4,090 |
Model benchmark — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast.
Counties colored by the projected margin — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast above. Hover a county for its numbers.
Both chambers carry the Call the Map state legislature forecast — the same model the Chamber Board publishes.
Republicans are favored to hold control. Republicans hold 24 of 33 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 9.3 of 33 · 80% range 9–11
See all 33 districts →Republicans are favored to hold control. Republicans hold 65 of 99 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 36.8 of 99 · 80% range 30–39
See all 99 districts →Chamber-by-chamber detail for every state lives on the full Chamber Board. Control today: NCSL · 2026 State & Legislative Partisan Composition · Jan. 27, 2026
Counties colored by the actual 2024 presidential result — counted votes, not a projection. Hover a county for its numbers.
The county tables and shift arrows across this site measure against these baselines. No president is on the 2026 ballot; this is the reference line every other race here is measured against.
Ballot measures — coming with the Ballotpedia layer.
Trifecta nowRepublican trifecta
| Chamber | Now | Projected |
|---|---|---|
| Senate | R | R |
| House | R | R |