Arizona
Explore Arizona on The Map ↗SenateNo 2026 race
U.S. House · projectedD 5 · R 4
GovernorD+6.2
2024 presidentR+5.5
Forecast as of October 28, 2026. Governor: Katie Hobbs ahead of Andy Biggs by D+6.2, with an 86 in 100 chance to win. U.S. House: Democrats are favored in 5 of the state's 9 districts and Republicans in 4.
Closest races
No U.S. Senate seat in Arizona is on the 2026 ballot. The national forecast covers 35 Senate elections.
Projected delegation: D 5 · R 4
AZ-01FlipAmish Shah vs. Jay FeelyD+3.5AZ-02Eli Crane vs. Jonathan NezR+3.4AZ-03Yassamin AnsariD+46.4AZ-04Greg Stanton vs. Zuhdi JasserD+16.5AZ-05Mark Lamb vs. Elizabeth LeeR+9.3AZ-06FlipJoAnna Mendoza vs. Juan CiscomaniD+2.0AZ-07Adelita Grijalva vs. Daniel ButierezD+31.0AZ-08Abraham Hamadeh vs. Bernadette Greene-PlacentiaR+8.5AZ-09Paul Gosar vs. Danielle SterbinskyR+21.8
Context, not a 2026 forecast.
- 2024 result
- R+5.5
- 2020 result
- D+0.3