Senate
Chance of R control55 in 100
Republicans are favored to hold control. Republicans hold 17 of 30 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 14.5 of 30 · 80% range 12–16
See all 30 districts →One state, every federal race and the provisional balance of power in its capitol.
No U.S. Senate seat in Arizonais on the 2026 ballot — both of the state's seats are mid-cycle. Senate control still runs through the 35 races on the national Senate map.
Counties colored by the projected margin — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast above. Hover a county for its numbers.
| Maricopa | 733,607 (51.3%) | 673,729 (47.1%) | D+4.2 | 1,430,220 |
| Pima | 213,766 (59.8%) | 137,856 (38.6%) | D+21.2 | 357,339 |
| Pinal | 60,759 (41.6%) | 82,823 (56.8%) | R+15.1 | 145,917 |
| Yavapai | 36,916 (35.5%) | 65,452 (62.9%) | R+27.4 | 104,033 |
| Mohave | 18,374 (23.9%) | 57,304 (74.5%) | R+50.6 | 76,909 |
| Coconino | 30,423 (62.4%) | 17,586 (36.0%) | D+26.3 | 48,790 |
| Yuma | 21,168 (44.6%) | 25,558 (53.8%) | R+9.2 | 47,486 |
| Cochise | 16,698 (40.7%) | 23,676 (57.7%) | R+17.0 | 41,030 |
| Navajo | 16,015 (45.4%) | 18,728 (53.0%) | R+7.7 | 35,308 |
| Apache | 14,285 (64.1%) | 7,654 (34.3%) | D+29.7 | 22,296 |
| Gila | 6,398 (33.2%) | 12,546 (65.2%) | R+31.9 | 19,252 |
| Santa Cruz | 8,506 (63.9%) | 4,595 (34.5%) | D+29.4 | 13,314 |
| Graham | 2,917 (27.6%) | 7,486 (70.8%) | R+43.2 | 10,572 |
| La Paz | 1,611 (30.3%) | 3,613 (68.1%) | R+37.7 | 5,309 |
| Greenlee | 746 (32.4%) | 1,520 (66.0%) | R+33.6 | 2,303 |
Model benchmark — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast.
Both chambers carry the Call the Map state legislature forecast — the same model the Chamber Board publishes.
Republicans are favored to hold control. Republicans hold 17 of 30 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 14.5 of 30 · 80% range 12–16
See all 30 districts →Republicans are favored to hold control. Republicans hold 33 of 60 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 27.4 of 60 · 80% range 24–31
See all 30 districts →Chamber-by-chamber detail for every state lives on the full Chamber Board. Control today: NCSL · 2026 State & Legislative Partisan Composition · Jan. 27, 2026
Counties colored by the actual 2024 presidential result — counted votes, not a projection. Hover a county for its numbers.
The county tables and shift arrows across this site measure against these baselines. No president is on the 2026 ballot; this is the reference line every other race here is measured against.
Ballot measures — coming with the Ballotpedia layer.
Trifecta nowSplit control
| Chamber | Now | Projected |
|---|---|---|
| Senate | R | R |
| House | R | R |