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FORECAST51 DAYS OUT
Race polling · GOV-AZ

Arizona Governor polls

Katie Hobbs (D) vs Andy Biggs (R). The polls the model aggregates, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.

Adjusted aggregateD+7.4same figure as the race page
Polls2020 recorded polls · 20 eligible for the aggregate · 15 with positive weight
Latest field dateAug 19Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-08-19 (25 days old)
EditionSep 13weights and corrections as of this edition

The polls the model reads

hover, tap or Tab to any poll
last 30 daysR+5EVEND+5D+10D+15D+20Apr ’25JulOctJan ’26AprJulOct
  • counted poll · area is its model weight
  • weight exactly zero · shown, not counted
  • poll trend · smoothed across nearby polls, larger and non-partisan ones count more · the recent end firms up as polls arrive
  • published average
  • 30 days before this edition

Every poll on file · 25

newest first

23 in the aggregate · 2 shown, not counted

PollsterFieldedAddedSampleResultWeightSource
NextGen PollingGeneral · Governor1,627 RVKatie Hobbs 39Andy Biggs 38Risa Lombardo 1Teri Hourihan 1not in the aggregatePoll release
NextGenPGeneral1,378 RVKatie Hobbs 39Andy Biggs 37.5Don't know 22.2Risa Lombardo 0.7Teri Hourihan 0.60.365Poll release
HighGroundGeneral · Governor400 LVKatie Hobbs 50Andy Biggs 34Teri Hourihan 2Risa Lombardo 1+1 other release0.190Poll release
Quantus InsightsGeneral · Governor780 LVKatie Hobbs 49Andy Biggs 43+1 other release0.203Poll document
Kreate StrategiesGeneral · Governor · REP sponsor · REP partisan900 LVKatie Hobbs 45Andy Biggs 40+1 other release0.267Pollster post
Noble Predictive InsightsGeneral · Governor923 LVKatie Hobbs 48Andy Biggs 35Risa Lombardo 2Teri Ann Hourihan 1+2 other releases0.245Poll release
Stealth AnalyticsGeneral · Governor530 LVKatie Hobbs 43Andy Biggs 38+1 other release0.186Poll release
GrayhouseGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan600 LVKatie Hobbs 49Andy Biggs 450.185Pollster post
The Tarrance GroupGeneral · Governor600 LVKatie Hobbs 52Andy Biggs 480.145Poll release
Tarrance GroupGeneral600 LVKatie Hobbs 52Andy Biggs 480.145Poll release
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact ResearchGeneral · Governor913 LVKatie Hobbs 52Andy Biggs 440.144Poll document
Fabrizio Ward/Impact ResearchGeneral913 LVKatie Hobbs 52Andy Biggs 44Don't know 4Someone else 00.144Poll document

Archive source date 2026-09-13. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.