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Forecast6 days out
Race polling · GOV-AZ

Arizona Governor polls 2026

Katie Hobbs (D) vs Andy Biggs (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.

Poll averageD+7.4the polls’ average, each as published · same figure as the race page
Polls3636 on file · 24 in the poll average · 12 not counted
Latest field dateOct 25Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-10-25 (3 days old)
EditionOct 28the poll average and its weights as of this edition

The polls and the poll average

drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its poll

Oct 28, 2026D+7.4today's poll average of 24 polls

R+5EvenD+5D+10D+15D+20Jan ’26AprJulOct
  • poll in the average · area is its weight
  • not counted · shown, never moves the line
  • trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average
  • left of the break: 5 earlier polls, not on the time axis

The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.

Data table
DaysAverage as it stoodTrend line
Oct 28, 2026D+7.4D+7.4
Oct 25–Oct 27, 2026D+7.4D+7.4
Oct 23–Oct 24, 2026D+7.4D+7.4
Oct 20–Oct 22, 2026D+7.8D+7.4
Oct 8–Oct 19, 2026D+7.8D+7.8 to D+7.4
Oct 6–Oct 7, 2026D+7.5D+7.8
Oct 5, 2026D+7.8D+7.7
Oct 4, 2026D+8.2D+7.7
Sep 9–Oct 3, 2026D+7.3D+7.3 to D+7.7
Sep 4–Sep 8, 2026D+7.5D+7.4 to D+7.3
Aug 19–Sep 3, 2026D+6.5D+6.5 to D+7.4
Aug 18, 2026D+7.3D+6.5
Aug 17, 2026D+6.5D+6.5
Aug 16, 2026D+6.6D+6.5
Aug 13–Aug 15, 2026D+7.0D+6.6
Aug 11–Aug 12, 2026D+6.1D+6.7
Jul 30–Aug 10, 2026D+6.9D+6.8 to D+6.7
Jul 28–Jul 29, 2026D+8.1D+6.9
May 7–Jul 27, 2026D+8.3D+8.3 to D+7.0
Apr 24–May 6, 2026D+9.7D+9.7 to D+8.3
Feb 26–Apr 23, 2026D+8.4D+8.4 to D+9.7
Dec 17–Feb 25, 2026D+12.8D+12.8 to D+8.4
Nov 10–Dec 16, 2025D+0.7D+0.7 to D+12.7

In governor races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at D+7.3.

Every poll on file · 36

newest added first

24 in the poll average · 12 shown, not counted

PollsterFieldedSampleResultAddedWeightSource
●RedBox ResearchGeneral · D sponsor · D partisan2,686 LVD+5.0Katie Hobbs 47Andy Biggs 421d ago0.94Poll release
●HighGroundGeneral400 LVD+12.2Katie Hobbs 51.5Andy Biggs 39.3Don't know 5.7Teri Hourihan 1.8Risa Lombardo 1.5Someone else 0.21d ago0.53Poll release
●GrayHouseGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan550 LVD+6.0Katie Hobbs 51Andy Biggs 45Don't know 2Teri Hourihan 2Risa Lombardo 05d ago0.58Pollster post
●BSP ResearchGeneral1,300 RVD+13.0Katie Hobbs 47Andy Biggs 34Don't know 16Teri Hourihan 2Risa Lombardo 10.74Poll document
Equis ResearchGeneral · Governor1,214 RVD+6.0Katie Hobbs 49Andy Biggs 43source not read by the modelPoll release
BSP ResearchGeneral · Governor— LVD+13.0Katie Hobbs 47Andy Biggs 34Teri Ann Hourihan 2Risa Lombardo 1source not read by the modelPoll release
●WickGeneral1,513 LVD+5.7Katie Hobbs 48.9Andy Biggs 43.2Don't know 4.5Someone else 3.40.78Poll release
●HighGroundGeneral400 LVD+16.8Katie Hobbs 50.5Andy Biggs 33.7Don't know 10.3Teri Hourihan 2.7Someone else 1.5Risa Lombardo 1.30.43Poll release
●GrayHouseGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan550 LVD+6.0Katie Hobbs 50Andy Biggs 44Don't know 4Risa Lombardo 1Teri Hourihan 10.51Poll release
●Equis ResearchGeneral1,214 RVD+6.0Katie Hobbs 49Andy Biggs 430.54Poll release
●GQRGeneral · D sponsor · D partisan600 LVD+4.0Katie Hobbs 49Andy Biggs 450.51Poll release
●Arizona State UniversityGeneral1,300 RVD+13.0Katie Hobbs 47Andy Biggs 340.53Poll document

Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.

Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.