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FORECAST52 DAYS OUT

The Senate is on a knife's edge.

52in 100 Republican

Senate control and seat distribution

Expected D seats
50.3
Expected R seats
49.7
Current Senate
D 47 · R 5345 D + 2 I aligned
Change
D+3

1 in 100: the majority hinges on independent winners — neither party reaches its threshold without them.

45505560current 47median 5051 wins control50–50 · VP RDemocratic-aligned seats
Lower 10% tailMiddle 80% · 46–55 DUpper 10% tail
D 50 · R 50The median outcome — 10.9% of simulations land exactly here: Republican control via vice-presidential tie-break, with Democratic-aligned +3 and Republicans −3 from today's Senate.59.0% land here or better for Democratic-aligned — 41.0% land worse.
From today’s Senate today · selected

100,000 joint simulations · each outcome totals 100 seats.

How the forecast has changed

Chance of control

9 in 101 in 10

Expected seats

455055Aug 1SepOctNov. 3 · Election Day

Reconstructed with the current model Aug 1 – Sep 8 (faded); published readings Sep 9 – Sep 11.

Hover the line, tap it, or use the arrow keys to read a date. Current 80% range · D 46–55 · R 45–54.

This comparable series begins on September 9, 2026, when the model version changed to CTMM 2.2. Earlier readings remain in the archive and are not joined as voter movement; faded points before September 9, 2026 are reconstructions, not forecasts issued on those days.

All 35 Senate races

NCGAMEMINHOHTXIANEAKMNILFLCONMNJVAMARIDEORALARIDKSKYLAMSMTOKSCSDTNWVWYVTWANDWINYNVINPACTCAUTMOMDAZHI

Changing of the Guard

Changing of the Guard — the 4 of 35 seats the forecast flips this cycle, in the favorite’s color with an explicit flip marker. Hover for the forecast.

The modeled races · closest first

8 of 35
TexasFLIPJames Talarico (D) vs. Ken Paxton (R) · openTilt DEvenOhioFLIPSherrod Brown (D) vs. Jon Husted (R)Tilt DD+0.8MaineFLIPTroy Jackson (D) vs. Susan Collins (R)Tilt DD+1.2MichiganAbdul El-Sayed (D) vs. Mike Rogers (R) · openTilt DD+1.6AlaskaMary Peltola · David B. Leslie (D) vs. Dan S. Sullivan (R)Tilt RR+1.6IowaJosh Turek (D) vs. Ashley Hinson (R) · openTilt RR+1.7New HampshireChris Pappas (D) vs. John Sununu (R) · openLean DD+4.1MississippiScott Colom (D) vs. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)Lean RR+5.0
See every competitive race on The Map →

Which races decide control

Needed for Democratic control

  1. Texas11%
  2. Ohio11%
  3. Michigan11%
  4. Iowa11%
  5. Maine11%
  6. Alaska7.2%

Needed for Republican control

  1. Iowa12%
  2. Texas11%
  3. Ohio11%
  4. Michigan10%
  5. Maine10%
  6. Alaska8.1%

Share of each party-control path in which the race is the tipping seat · 100,000 simulations.

What if the national environment moved?

Explore Senate and House scenarios

Where We Disagree With the Markets

Democratic win chance · forecast vs. Polymarket. Markets never feed the forecast. Quotes: Sep 11, 2026.

Race
Mississippi29 in 1007 in 10022 pts more Republican in market
Alaska45 in 10066 in 10021 pts more Democratic in market
Minnesota77 in 10092 in 10015 pts more Democratic in market
Maine58 in 10071 in 10013 pts more Democratic in market
New Hampshire73 in 10083 in 10010 pts more Democratic in market

Biggest movessince Sep 10 → Sep 11

Every Senate race moved about +0.1 with the national environment. These moved further than that.

  1. Minnesota-1.1D+5.2
  2. Kansas+1.0R+8.2
  3. Florida-0.9R+7.8
  4. Iowa+0.6R+1.7

← toward Republicans±5 pointstoward Democrats →

4 of 32 Senate races moved