North Carolina · U.S. Senate
Open this race on The Map ↗Roy Cooper is narrowly favored to flip North Carolina’s Senate seat. Predicted margin: D+7.2.
Show all others (2)
Michael Dublin · Shannon W. Bray
Other is a combined forecast; individual estimates are not published.
Ballot eligibility alone supplies no quantitative estimate. Other is a collective share, not any named candidate’s forecast. Official ballot sources: Michael Dublin (checked 2026-08-31); Shannon W. Bray (checked 2026-08-31).
high / low: vote share (%) in the middle 80 in 100 simulations
About this field
Open (Tillis retired). Cooper's the strongest recruit of the cycle; official ratings still say Toss-Up but polling and markets favor him clearly.
Forecast share averages the simulated vote. Win chance counts how often a candidate wins. A wider range of outcomes can give a candidate a higher win chance despite a lower average share.
Forecast history
Latest reading · Sep 13 · first published Sep 9 · 80% range · margin points R+0.4 to D+14.7. Methodology
Hover the line, tap it, or use the arrow keys to inspect its history.
About this series
This comparable series begins on September 9, 2026, when the model version changed to CTMM 2.2. Earlier readings remain in the archive and are not joined as voter movement; faded points before September 9, 2026 are reconstructions, not forecasts issued on those days.
Faded: CTMM 2.2 reconstructed history: computed after the fact with each date's available polls and environment, without expert ratings; not an issued forecast. Issued forecasts begin at the launch marker.
The polls
Ledger weighted average D+8.0Used by the forecast: 32 polls (60-day half-life) · measured D+8.6 · after the fitted poll-error shift D+7.032 recorded polls · 32 eligible for the aggregate · 32 with positive weight
| Fieldwork | Added | Pollster | Result | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| from 2026-09-08 | 1h ago | Trafalgar Group ↗ | D+5.9D 48.2% · R 42.3% | 1,084 LV |
| from 2026-08-31 | 3d ago | East Carolina University Center for Survey Research ↗ | D+8.1D 51.7% · R 43.6% | 675 LV |
| from 2026-08-21 | 3d ago | Elon University/YouGov ↗ | D+11.0D 49% · R 38% | 565 LV |
| from 2026-08-21 | 3d ago | YouGov ↗Elon University | D+11.0D 49% · R 38% | 565 LV |
| from 2026-08-03 | High Point University/YouGov ↗ | D+7.0D 48% · R 41% | 800 RV | |
| from 2026-08-03 | High Point University ↗ | D+5.0D 50% · R 45% | 660 LV | |
| from 2026-08-09 | Harper Polling ↗Carolina Journal | D+12.5D 51.5% · R 39% | 600 LV | |
| from 2026-08-03 | Change Research ↗Carolina Forward | D+7.1D 50.05% · R 42.93% | 915 LV |
Explore poll adjustments
Ledger weighted average D+8.0
- Published result
- D+5.9
- Model read
- D+8.9
- Model weight
- 0.870
- Fieldwork
- 8 Sep–10 Sep
- Sample
- 1,084 LV
- Sponsor
- Republican sponsor · organization not listed
- Pollster quality
- 0.715
- Admission
- Included in the model
Recorded corrections: sponsor +1.73 points; pollster +2.44 points.
The New York Times polling archive · first recorded by Call the Map 13 SepOpen poll source- Published result
- D+8.1
- Model read
- D+6.3
- Model weight
- 0.585
- Fieldwork
- 31 Aug–3 Sep
- Sample
- 675 LV
- Sponsor
- Not listed
- Pollster quality
- 0.767
- Admission
- Included in the model
Recorded corrections: sponsor −0.16 points; pollster −1.63 points.
The New York Times polling archive · first recorded by Call the Map 10 SepOpen poll source- Published result
- D+11.0
- Model read
- D+10.8
- Model weight
- 0.348
- Fieldwork
- 21 Aug–31 Aug
- Sample
- 565 LV
- Sponsor
- Not listed
- Pollster quality
- 0.550
- Admission
- Included in the model
Recorded corrections: sponsor −0.16 points; pollster 0.00 points.
Wikipedia polling archive · first recorded by Call the Map 10 SepOpen poll source- Published result
- D+11.0
- Model read
- D+9.8
- Model weight
- 0.409
- Fieldwork
- 21 Aug–31 Aug
- Sample
- 565 LV
- Sponsor
- Elon University
- Pollster quality
- 0.648
- Admission
- Included in the model
Recorded corrections: sponsor −0.16 points; pollster −1.01 points.
The New York Times polling archive · first recorded by Call the Map 10 SepOpen poll source- Published result
- D+5.0
- Model read
- D+4.8
- Model weight
- 0.201
- Fieldwork
- 3 Aug–12 Aug
- Sample
- 660 LV
- Sponsor
- Not listed
- Pollster quality
- 0.550
- Admission
- Included in the model
Recorded corrections: sponsor −0.16 points; pollster 0.00 points.
The New York Times polling archive · first recorded by Call the Map 24 AugOpen poll source- Published result
- D+7.0
- Model read
- D+5.7
- Model weight
- 0.221
- Fieldwork
- 3 Aug–12 Aug
- Sample
- 800 RV
- Sponsor
- Not listed
- Pollster quality
- 0.550
- Admission
- Included in the model
Recorded corrections: sponsor −0.16 points; pollster 0.00 points.
Wikipedia polling archive · first recorded by Call the Map 24 AugOpen poll source- Published result
- D+12.5
- Model read
- D+11.6
- Model weight
- 0.277
- Fieldwork
- 9 Aug–10 Aug
- Sample
- 600 LV
- Sponsor
- Carolina Journal
- Pollster quality
- 0.852
- Admission
- Included in the model
Recorded corrections: sponsor −0.16 points; pollster −0.71 points.
The New York Times polling archive · first recorded by Call the Map 23 AugOpen poll source- Published result
- D+7.1
- Model read
- D+4.1
- Model weight
- 0.180
- Fieldwork
- 3 Aug–6 Aug
- Sample
- 915 LV
- Sponsor
- Carolina Forward
- Pollster quality
- 0.511
- Admission
- Included in the model
Recorded corrections: sponsor −2.98 points; pollster −3.07 points.
The New York Times polling archive · first recorded by Call the Map 23 AugOpen poll sourceHow the margin was built
Follow each contribution to the margin. Wider ribbons mean more percentage points. Tap an input for its calculation and source.
The signed totals combine at the forecast. Displayed values are rounded.
All calculations & sources
How this state voted, 2024 −3.220 points
The state's two-party presidential margin in 2024, from our own county sums — the same measurement the model's statewide terrain center is built from. Every pull below is measured from here, not from EVEN, which is why a landslide seat's listed pulls are small numbers and still land where the forecast does.
- 2024 presidential result for this state, two-party, from Call the Map's own county sums.
- Same source as Act I's 2024-president reference mark, so the origin lands on it.
Fitted model, above the terrain shown +6.412 points
What the fitted model adds on top of the starting terrain above — incumbency, past results, campaign finance and the other fitted terms — measured from that terrain rather than from EVEN. It is a comparison with the starting point already shown, not a separate input. The source detail lists the variables the fit uses.
- Fitted baseline 3.192 minus starting point -3.220 = 6.412 points.
- For orientation, the presidential results here: 2024 R+3.2, 2020 R+1.4.
- The work: the +3.2 D fundamentals push is the sum of the dynamic formula's surviving variables for this race — each one's own contribution is listed below.
- fundamentals core = 25-term dynamic formula (mass fit over the master feature matrix, held-out-cycle validated; see matrix/feature_dictionary.md + mass_fit_report.json)
- 9-term formula, held-out validated.
National environment +1.988 points
The contribution to this race’s margin, not the national polling margin itself. The race’s loading, reference level and polling blend determine how much of the national climate reaches its final forecast.
- Three-source blend, updated 2026-09-08: 52% generic-ballot aggregates (D+6.5) · 28% special-election overperformance (D+9.0 across 46 specials) · 20% approval-implied (D+8.6 from net approval -21.7).
- Latest polls — generic ballot 2026-09-08 (5 days old), approval 2026-09-10 (3 days old).
- Generic-ballot average D+6.5 · support factor 0.84 (the share of that channel's capacity the admitted polls carry) — separate inputs; their product is a capacity diagnostic, not a margin.
- Weights are the 55/25/20 capacities scaled by each channel's evidence and renormalized, so thin polling widens the interval instead of pulling the center toward zero — 16% of the weight is carried that way.
- Blended national environment: D+7.6.
- Applied at full strength to this chamber's races.
- The work: national environment × 1 chamber strength = +2.0 D of this margin.
- Blended national environment: D+7.6 (updated 2026-09-08).
- Effective poll weight 84%; fundamentals share 16%, carried by the interval (×1.08) rather than by the center.
- The support factor is the share of the generic-ballot capacity the admitted polls carry; average × support is a capacity diagnostic, not a margin, and is not what the row above multiplies.
- Applied at full strength to this chamber: +2.0 of this margin.
This race’s polls +1.513 points
What this race’s own recent polling adds beyond its prior, after each poll is weighted for recency, sample size and pollster quality.
- 32 matchup-validated, sample/recency/grade-weighted poll(s), latest 2026-09-10
- East Carolina University Center for Survey Research (2026-09-03, n=675): D+8.1 · weight 0.81
- Elon University/YouGov (2026-08-31, n=565): D+11.0 · weight 0.68
- YouGov (2026-08-31, n=565): D+11.0 · weight 0.67
- High Point University/YouGov (2026-08-12, n=800): D+7.0 · weight 0.43
- High Point University (2026-08-12, n=660): D+5.0 · weight 0.39
- Harper Polling (2026-08-10, n=600): D+12.5 · weight 0.35
- … and 25 more below.
- Adjusted poll-bank aggregate D+7.8 · 31 recorded polls · 31 eligible for the aggregate · 31 with positive weight. The sealed model records a net polling contribution of +1.5 D. Observation weights are not the final model blend weight. Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-09-03 (10 days old).
- Adjusted poll-bank aggregate D+7.8 · 31 recorded polls · 31 eligible for the aggregate · 31 with positive weight; recorded polling contribution +1.5 D. These observation weights must not be read as the model’s final prior-versus-polling weight. Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-09-03 (10 days old).
Structural safeguards +0.470 points
Bounded corrections that keep the model consistent with structural facts.
- Applied only when a safe state's dynamic fundamentals point in the same direction as its strong presidential lean but are materially compressed toward zero.
- The 25% correction toward that lean improved safe-race MAE in strict expanding-window validation without changing a historical call.
- The disclosed adjustment is +0.5 D.
The components this edition publishes for this race, in points. “Other factors” closes the sum to the two-party structural lean exactly. Here the structural lean IS the published margin, so the walk sums to the projection exactly; nothing is left over.
| Named factor | Contribution |
|---|---|
| FundamentalsThe admitted fitted baseline. Its surviving variables differ by office; the source detail above identifies those used for this race. | +3.19 |
| National environmentThe national environment’s contribution to the prior. Polling can attenuate its influence; this value is not the national polling margin. | +1.99 |
| This race's pollsAdmitted head-to-head polls of this race, recency- and quality-weighted. | +1.51 |
| Structural terrain safeguardA bounded pull toward presidential terrain in heavily partisan states. | +0.47 |
| Other factors | 0.00 |
Recent elections
| Election | Result | Votes cast |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 · U.S. Senate ↗ | R+1.8 | 5,474,952 |
| 2014 · U.S. Senate ↗ | R+1.6 | 2,915,281 |
| 2008 · U.S. Senate ↗ | D+8.7 | 4,271,970 |
| 2002 · U.S. Senate ↗ | R+8.7 | 2,331,181 |
Margins compare Democratic and Republican vote totals. Nonstandard ballots are labeled separately.
The money
Roy Cooper ↗
D$35.0Mraised
$20.7M cash on handFiling through 06/30/2026
Michael Whatley ↗
R$11.3Mraised
$3.5M cash on handFiling through 06/30/2026
Bar length compares reported receipts in this race; the tick marks cash on hand. A missing filing stays blank rather than becoming $0.
One more fundraising reportCall the Map · $0
The candidates are comfortably out-fundraising the website covering them. A little rude, perhaps, but statistically unsurprising.
- Received so far
- $0
- Measured compute
- $26,188.58
Ko-fi and Buy Me a Coffee receipts are counted through Sep 1, 2026. Measured compute prices model runs at standard published API rates; it is not what I paid. Hosting, data and subscriptions, the domain and my own time are not counted. Donations buy gratitude, never a forecast adjustment.
Outside spending
Support + opposition · separate from receiptsFor and against Roy Cooper$16.5M
14 spending groups
| Group | For | Against |
|---|---|---|
| Senate Leadership Fund | $0 | $13.3M |
| Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. (AFP Action) DBA CVA Action and DBA LIBRE Action | $0 | $1.8M |
| Planned Parenthood Votes North Carolina (FEC) | $624K | $0 |
| WORKERS VOTE | $231K | $0 |
| NO GOING BACK PAC INC. | $0 | $195K |
| CFFE PAC | $106K | $0 |
| Progressive Turnout Project | $56K | $0 |
| WinSenate | $50K | $0 |
| THE CONSERVATIVE CAUCUS DBA AMERICANS FOR CONSTITUTIONAL LIBERTY | $0 | $48K |
| Forward Blue PAC | $32K | $0 |
| CatholicVote.org | $0 | $18K |
| ModSquad Action | $15K | $0 |
| North Carolinians Against Gun Violence Action Fund | $3K | $0 |
| Field Team 6 Inc. | $3K | $0 |
For and against Michael Whatley$19.8M
5 spending groups
| Group | For | Against |
|---|---|---|
| WinSenate | $0 | $14.6M |
| Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. (AFP Action) DBA CVA Action and DBA LIBRE Action | $4.7M | $0 |
| Senate Leadership Fund | $549K | $0 |
| NO GOING BACK PAC INC. | $25K | $0 |
| RED SENATE | $392 | $0 |
Includes primary spending. Opposition is recorded against its named target; no benefit to another candidate is assumed.
No filing matched: Michael Dublin, Shannon W. Bray.
FEC filings · through 06/30/2026 · Definitions & method
Race context
- Forecast votes cast
- 3,848,155
- Forecast turnout
- 46.7% of the voting-eligible population
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+3.3
Statewide, 47.4% of the voting-eligible population is projected to cast a ballot; the lower figure above is the share projected to vote in this race.
Population profile Select a measure for its source and denominator
U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 American Community Survey 5-year estimates ↗
Coverage
5 stories · 3 quotes
- In a CNN interview, Roy Cooper (D) says, “This is going to be anywhere from a 1 to 3 percent race.”
VoteHub’s forecast gives Cooper a 90% chance to win in North Carolina, with a projected final margin of D+8. ↗
VoteHub · Analysis · 53m ago
curated poll aggregator · recent Bluesky post · named-race match · election-topic match - In Goldsboro, Roy Cooper highlights cost of living crisis ↗
Cardinal & Pine · Sep 11
- Aren’t Ds favored to win both? Quinnipiac gives Dems +11 in generic congressional polling. In recent Senate polling, Roy Cooper is up double digits in North Carolina, Troy Jackson is up by 4 in Maine, and James Talarico in Texas, Sherrod Brown in Ohio and Mary Peltola in Alaska hold leads. ↗
Jen Rubin · Commentary · 2d ago
curated political commentary · recent Bluesky post · named-race match · election-topic match - The Elon poll found that former North Carolina Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper holds an 11% lead over Republican Michael Whatley, 49% to 38%, among likely voters in the race for U.S. Senate. The race is largely being driven by pocketbook issues. ncnewsline.com/2026/09/10/c... #ncpol #nc ↗
NC Newsline · Official · 3d ago
curated state newsroom · recent Bluesky post · named-race match · election-topic match - A North Carolina dad who lost his son says he was deceived into appearing in anti-Roy Cooper ad. ↗
Cardinal & Pine · Sep 2
- Three Races to Watch in Roy Cooper’s Backyard ↗
The Assembly NC · Aug 31
- U.S. Senate Candidates Could Skip Debating for First Time in Almost 30 Years ↗
The Assembly NC · Aug 27
- What the Duke Lacrosse Case Says About Roy Cooper ↗
The Assembly NC · Aug 25