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FORECAST52 DAYS OUT

Democrats are favored in the House.

74in 100 Democratic

House control and seat distribution

Expected D seats
229.5
Expected R seats
205.5
Current House
D 215 · R 219 · I 1
Change
D+14
200220240260280current 215median 228218 wins controlDemocratic seats
Lower 10% tailMiddle 80% · 209–252 DUpper 10% tail
D 228 · R 207The median outcome — 2.5% of simulations land exactly here: Democratic control, with Democrats +13 and Republicans −12 from today's House.50.3% land here or better for Democrats — 49.7% land worse.
From today’s House today · selected

100,000 joint simulations · each outcome totals 435 seats.

How the forecast has changed

Chance of control

9 in 101 in 10

Expected seats

203232Aug 1SepOctNov. 3 · Election Day

Reconstructed with the current model Aug 1 – Sep 8 (faded); published readings Sep 9 – Sep 11.

Hover the line, tap it, or use the arrow keys to read a date. Current 80% range · D 209–252 · R 183–226.

This comparable series begins on September 9, 2026, when the model version changed to CTMM 2.2. Earlier readings remain in the archive and are not joined as voter movement; faded points before September 9, 2026 are reconstructions, not forecasts issued on those days.

All 435 districts

Changing of the Guard

29 House seats are projected to change hands. Hover or tap for the forecast.

The districts · closest first

8 of 435
MI-07FLIPWilliam Lawrence (D) vs. Tom Barrett (R)Tilt DD+0.2VA-02FLIPElaine Luria (D) vs. Jen Kiggans (R)Tilt DD+0.5TX-15FLIPBobby Pulido (D) vs. Monica De La Cruz (R)Tilt DD+0.5PA-08Rob Bresnahan (R) vs. Paige Cognetti (D)Tilt RR+0.7WI-03FLIPRebecca Cooke (D) vs. Derrick Van Orden (R)Tilt DD+0.8NY-17Mike Lawler (R) vs. Cait Conley (D)Tilt RR+0.9OH-09FLIPDerek Merrin (R) vs. Marcy Kaptur (D)Tilt RR+0.9FL-22FLIPCasey Askar (R) vs. Pia Dandiya (D)Tilt RR+1.1
See every competitive district on The Map →

Which races decide control

Needed for Democratic control

  1. TX-152.7%
  2. TX-342.5%
  3. AZ-062.4%
  4. MI-072.3%
  5. VA-022.3%
  6. WI-032.3%

Needed for Republican control

  1. TX-152.9%
  2. TX-342.7%
  3. WI-032.6%
  4. MI-072.6%
  5. VA-022.6%
  6. AZ-062.5%

Share of each party-control path in which the race is the tipping seat · 100,000 simulations.

What if the national environment moved?

Explore Senate and House scenarios

Where We Disagree With the Markets

Democratic win chance · forecast vs. Polymarket. Markets never feed the forecast. Quotes: Sep 11, 2026.

Race
IA-0338 in 10074 in 100Thin book · $3,847 liquidity36 pts more Democratic in market
NC-1134 in 10064 in 100Thin book · $2,250 liquidity30 pts more Democratic in market
VA-0253 in 10082 in 10029 pts more Democratic in market
OH-0943 in 10069 in 100Thin book · $2,283 liquidity26 pts more Democratic in market
MO-0218 in 10041 in 100Thin book · $1,412 liquidity23 pts more Democratic in market

Biggest movessince Sep 9 → Sep 11

Every House race moved about +0.1 with the national environment. These moved further than that.

  1. GA-07+6.5R+11.2
  2. TN-09+4.4R+9.4
  3. VT-AL-1.9D+39.4
  4. HI-02-0.5D+36.1
  5. IA-04+0.4R+21.6
  6. UT-04+0.4R+21.4
  7. HI-01-0.4D+40.0
  8. UT-02+0.4R+18.4
  9. UT-03+0.4R+29.4
  10. WA-07+0.4D+73.5

← toward Republicans±5 pointstoward Democrats →

45 of 430 House races moved · 10 shown