Democrats are heavily favored in the House.
85in 100 Democratic
Forecast as of October 26, 2026: Democrats have an 85 in 100 chance to control the House, Republicans 15 in 100. Current race-by-race calls: D 230 - R 205.
House control and seat distribution
- Expected D seats
- 235.6
- Expected R seats
- 199.4
- Current House
- D 215 · R 219 · I 1
- Change
- D+21
Lower 10% tailMiddle 80% · 214–259 DUpper 10% tail
D 234 · R 201The median outcome — 2.3% of simulations land exactly here: Democratic control, with Democrats +19 and Republicans −18 from today's House.51.6% land here or better for Democrats — 48.4% land worse.
From today’s House Today · Selected
100,000 joint simulations · each outcome totals 435 seats.
How the forecast has changed
Oct 26 · latestDemocrats 85 in 100Republicans 15 in 100seats 235.6 D to 199.4 R
Reconstructed with the current model Aug 1 – Oct 5; published readings Oct 6 – Oct 26.
Current 80% range · D 214–259 · R 176–221.
Data table
| Date | D control | R control | D seats | R seats | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 | 85 in 100 | 15 in 100 | 235.6 | 199.4 | Published forecast |
| Oct 25 | 85 in 100 | 15 in 100 | 236.0 | 199.0 | Published forecast |
| Oct 24 | 85 in 100 | 15 in 100 | 235.8 | 199.2 | Published forecast |
| Oct 23 | 86 in 100 | 14 in 100 | 235.8 | 199.2 | Published forecast |
| Oct 22 | 85 in 100 | 15 in 100 | 235.2 | 199.8 | Published forecast |
| Oct 21 | 82 in 100 | 18 in 100 | 233.7 | 201.3 | Published forecast |
| Oct 20 | 82 in 100 | 18 in 100 | 233.2 | 201.8 | Published forecast |
| Oct 19 | 82 in 100 | 18 in 100 | 233.2 | 201.8 | Published forecast |
| Oct 18 | 82 in 100 | 18 in 100 | 233.2 | 201.8 | Published forecast |
| Oct 17 | 82 in 100 | 18 in 100 | 233.2 | 201.8 | Published forecast |
| Oct 16 | 82 in 100 | 18 in 100 | 233.0 | 202.0 | Published forecast |
| Oct 15 | 82 in 100 | 18 in 100 | 233.0 | 202.0 | Published forecast |
| Oct 14 | 81 in 100 | 19 in 100 | 232.8 | 202.2 | Published forecast |
| Oct 13 | 81 in 100 | 19 in 100 | 232.8 | 202.2 | Published forecast |
| Oct 12 | 81 in 100 | 19 in 100 | 232.5 | 202.5 | Published forecast |
| Oct 11 | 81 in 100 | 19 in 100 | 232.5 | 202.5 | Published forecast |
| Oct 10 | 81 in 100 | 19 in 100 | 232.5 | 202.5 | Published forecast |
| Oct 9 | 81 in 100 | 19 in 100 | 232.5 | 202.5 | Published forecast |
| Oct 8 | 80 in 100 | 20 in 100 | 232.0 | 203.0 | Published forecast |
| Oct 7 | 80 in 100 | 20 in 100 | 231.9 | 203.1 | Published forecast |
| Oct 6 | 79 in 100 | 21 in 100 | 231.7 | 203.3 | Published forecast |
| Oct 5 | 80 in 100 | 20 in 100 | 232.1 | 202.9 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Oct 4 | 80 in 100 | 20 in 100 | 232.2 | 202.8 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Oct 3 | 80 in 100 | 20 in 100 | 232.2 | 202.8 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Oct 2 | 80 in 100 | 20 in 100 | 232.1 | 202.9 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Oct 1 | 80 in 100 | 20 in 100 | 232.1 | 202.9 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Sep 30 | 80 in 100 | 20 in 100 | 231.8 | 203.2 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Sep 29 | 80 in 100 | 20 in 100 | 231.9 | 203.1 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Sep 28 | 80 in 100 | 20 in 100 | 231.8 | 203.2 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Sep 27 | 80 in 100 | 20 in 100 | 231.6 | 203.4 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Sep 26 | 80 in 100 | 20 in 100 | 231.6 | 203.4 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Sep 25 | 80 in 100 | 20 in 100 | 231.6 | 203.4 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Sep 24 | 79 in 100 | 21 in 100 | 231.4 | 203.6 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Sep 23 | 79 in 100 | 21 in 100 | 231.0 | 204.0 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Sep 22 | 79 in 100 | 21 in 100 | 231.1 | 203.9 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Sep 21 | 79 in 100 | 21 in 100 | 231.0 | 204.0 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Sep 20 | 79 in 100 | 21 in 100 | 231.0 | 204.0 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Sep 19 | 79 in 100 | 21 in 100 | 231.0 | 204.0 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Sep 18 | 79 in 100 | 21 in 100 | 230.9 | 204.1 | Computed after the fact; no edition was issued that day |
| Sep 17 | 79 in 100 | 21 in 100 | 230.9 | 204.1 | Computed after the fact; no edition was issued that day |
| Sep 16 | 76 in 100 | 24 in 100 | 230.9 | 204.1 | Computed after the fact; no edition was issued that day |
| Sep 15 | 76 in 100 | 24 in 100 | 230.4 | 204.6 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Sep 14 | 75 in 100 | 25 in 100 | 230.4 | 204.6 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Sep 13 | 75 in 100 | 25 in 100 | 230.2 | 204.8 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Sep 12 | 75 in 100 | 25 in 100 | 230.1 | 204.9 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Sep 11 | 75 in 100 | 25 in 100 | 230.0 | 205.0 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Sep 10 | 75 in 100 | 25 in 100 | 229.8 | 205.2 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Sep 9 | 74 in 100 | 26 in 100 | 229.6 | 205.4 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Sep 8 | 74 in 100 | 26 in 100 | 229.6 | 205.4 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Sep 7 | 74 in 100 | 26 in 100 | 229.6 | 205.4 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Sep 6 | 74 in 100 | 26 in 100 | 229.3 | 205.7 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Sep 5 | 75 in 100 | 25 in 100 | 229.6 | 205.4 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Sep 4 | 72 in 100 | 28 in 100 | 228.5 | 206.5 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Sep 3 | 72 in 100 | 28 in 100 | 228.2 | 206.8 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Sep 2 | 70 in 100 | 30 in 100 | 227.2 | 207.8 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Sep 1 | 70 in 100 | 30 in 100 | 227.2 | 207.8 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Aug 31 | 70 in 100 | 30 in 100 | 227.3 | 207.7 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Aug 30 | 70 in 100 | 30 in 100 | 227.2 | 207.8 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Aug 29 | 70 in 100 | 30 in 100 | 227.3 | 207.7 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Aug 28 | 70 in 100 | 30 in 100 | 227.3 | 207.7 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Aug 27 | 70 in 100 | 30 in 100 | 227.3 | 207.7 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Aug 26 | 70 in 100 | 30 in 100 | 227.2 | 207.8 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Aug 25 | 66 in 100 | 34 in 100 | 226.2 | 208.8 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Aug 24 | 66 in 100 | 34 in 100 | 226.2 | 208.8 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Aug 23 | 66 in 100 | 34 in 100 | 226.2 | 208.8 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Aug 22 | 67 in 100 | 33 in 100 | 226.5 | 208.5 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Aug 21 | 65 in 100 | 35 in 100 | 225.8 | 209.2 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Aug 20 | 66 in 100 | 34 in 100 | 225.9 | 209.1 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Aug 19 | 65 in 100 | 35 in 100 | 225.8 | 209.2 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Aug 18 | 65 in 100 | 35 in 100 | 225.7 | 209.3 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Aug 17 | 64 in 100 | 36 in 100 | 225.4 | 209.6 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Aug 16 | 64 in 100 | 36 in 100 | 225.4 | 209.6 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Aug 15 | 64 in 100 | 36 in 100 | 225.5 | 209.5 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Aug 14 | 64 in 100 | 36 in 100 | 225.3 | 209.7 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Aug 13 | 64 in 100 | 36 in 100 | 224.9 | 210.1 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Aug 12 | 63 in 100 | 37 in 100 | 224.6 | 210.4 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Aug 11 | 62 in 100 | 38 in 100 | 224.6 | 210.4 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Aug 10 | 63 in 100 | 37 in 100 | 224.6 | 210.4 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Aug 9 | 61 in 100 | 39 in 100 | 224.2 | 210.8 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Aug 8 | 61 in 100 | 39 in 100 | 224.2 | 210.8 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Aug 7 | 61 in 100 | 39 in 100 | 224.2 | 210.8 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Aug 6 | 61 in 100 | 39 in 100 | 223.9 | 211.1 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Aug 5 | 61 in 100 | 39 in 100 | 223.9 | 211.1 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Aug 4 | 61 in 100 | 39 in 100 | 223.6 | 211.4 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Aug 3 | 62 in 100 | 38 in 100 | 223.9 | 211.1 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Aug 2 | 62 in 100 | 38 in 100 | 223.8 | 211.2 | Reconstructed with the current model |
| Aug 1 | 62 in 100 | 38 in 100 | 223.9 | 211.1 | Reconstructed with the current model |
Each reconstructed day is the current model on that day’s own inputs, not a forecast published then. Corrections are dated in the changelog.
All 435 districts
435 districts, one person covering them. At 435 to 1, that would be a safe seat anywhere. Get what moved by emailSupport the work
The Flippers
The districts · closest first
8 of 435
VA-01Shannon Taylor (D) vs. Rob Wittman (R)TiedFL-25Jared Moskowitz (D) vs. Scott Singer (R)TiedTX-35Carlos De La Cruz (R) vs. Johnny Garcia (D) · openR+0.2MO-02Ann Wagner (R) vs. Fred Wellman (D)R+0.3NY-17Cait Conley (D) vs. Mike Lawler (R)D+0.3IA-02Joe Mitchell (R) vs. Lindsay James (D) · openD+0.3MT-01Aaron Flint (R) vs. Sam Forstag (D) · openD+0.4CO-05Jeff Crank (R) vs. Jessica Killin (D)R+0.6
Which races decide control
Win it or lose it. The Democrats’ chance of the House on the nights they win each district, and on the nights they lose it.
- PA-07Brooks (D) 79 in 100Brooks (D) wins PA-07 in 78,767 of the 100,000 simulations; in those, Democrats win the House 93 times in 100. In the other 21,233, 53 times in 100.
- TX-15Pulido (D) 74 in 100Pulido (D) wins TX-15 in 74,276 of the 100,000 simulations; in those, Democrats win the House 95 times in 100. In the other 25,724, 55 times in 100.
- OH-07Poindexter (D) 77 in 100Poindexter (D) wins OH-07 in 77,149 of the 100,000 simulations; in those, Democrats win the House 94 times in 100. In the other 22,851, 54 times in 100.
- MI-07Lawrence (D) 75 in 100Lawrence (D) wins MI-07 in 74,720 of the 100,000 simulations; in those, Democrats win the House 94 times in 100. In the other 25,280, 56 times in 100.
- PA-08Cognetti (D) 70 in 100Cognetti (D) wins PA-08 in 69,800 of the 100,000 simulations; in those, Democrats win the House 95 times in 100. In the other 30,200, 59 times in 100.
- VA-02Luria (D) 68 in 100Luria (D) wins VA-02 in 67,875 of the 100,000 simulations; in those, Democrats win the House 96 times in 100. In the other 32,125, 61 times in 100.
- CO-08Rutinel (D) 70 in 100Rutinel (D) wins CO-08 in 70,013 of the 100,000 simulations; in those, Democrats win the House 95 times in 100. In the other 29,987, 61 times in 100.
- CA-22Villegas (D) 71 in 100Villegas (D) wins CA-22 in 71,250 of the 100,000 simulations; in those, Democrats win the House 94 times in 100. In the other 28,750, 60 times in 100.
- PA-10Stelson (D) 63 in 100Stelson (D) wins PA-10 in 62,763 of the 100,000 simulations; in those, Democrats win the House 97 times in 100. In the other 37,237, 64 times in 100.
- AZ-06Mendoza (D) 65 in 100Mendoza (D) wins AZ-06 in 64,756 of the 100,000 simulations; in those, Democrats win the House 95 times in 100. In the other 35,244, 64 times in 100.
- WA-03Perez (D) 61 in 100Perez (D) wins WA-03 in 60,546 of the 100,000 simulations; in those, Democrats win the House 97 times in 100. In the other 39,454, 66 times in 100.
- KY-06Dembo (D) 57 in 100Dembo (D) wins KY-06 in 57,448 of the 100,000 simulations; in those, Democrats win the House 96 times in 100. In the other 42,552, 69 times in 100.
Races move together: a night Democrats carry one of these is usually a good night for them everywhere. A row's gap mostly shows what kind of night it is, not what that one seat is worth.
Each figure is a count over the same 100,000 simulations as the House figure at the top of the page. The smallest group behind any figure here is 21,233 simulations. 12 of the 435 districts are listed: the ones most often the deciding seat, among the 86 that each side wins in at least 5,000 simulations. The other 349 are too one-sided to split this way.
The chance beside each name is that race's own forecast, as its page prints it. The simulations are drawn for the whole chamber at once, and each race listed here is won in them within a tenth of a point of that chance: PA-07 is won in 78,767 of 100,000, against 79 in 100.
What if the national environment moved?
Where we disagree with the markets
Democratic win chance · forecast vs. Polymarket. Markets never feed the forecast. Quotes: Oct 26, 2026.
Biggest movessince Oct 25, 8:58 PM ET
- TX-28-3.9D+6.7
- MI-10-2.7R+3.1
- KS-02-1.8R+7.5
- SD-AL+1.7R+21.6
- TX-09-1.2R+5.9
- NC-01-1.1D+4.8
- PA-01-0.8R+2.2
- TX-34-0.8D+4.2
- MI-04-0.7R+2.3
- PA-08-0.6D+2.6
← Toward Republicans±5 pointsToward Democrats →
16 of 435 House races moved at least 0.2 points · 10 shown · 11 not compared on this board