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FORECAST51 DAYS OUT
← House3 November 2026 · 51 days out

CA-29 · U.S. House

Open this race on The Map ↗

Luz Maria Rivas is heavily favored to win. Projected candidate margin: Luz Maria Rivas over Angélica María Dueñas by 34.5 points. No two-party forecast is published for this race: November's certified top-two field is Luz Maria Rivas and Angélica María Dueñas, so a Democrat-versus-Republican margin would not describe this contest.

Luz Maria Rivas (D)94 in 10094.3%67.2high 80.0 · low 54.0
Angélica María Dueñas (D)6 in 1005.7%32.8high 46.0 · low 20.0

high / low: vote share (%) in the middle 80 in 100 simulations

Democratic-held seat

Recent elections

ElectionResultVotes cast
2024 · U.S. House ↗D+39.6209,686
2022 · U.S. House ↗Not a D–R contestThe ballot was not a Democrat versus a Republican; a D/R margin cannot identify the winner.119,435
2020 · U.S. House ↗Not a D–R contestThe ballot was not a Democrat versus a Republican; a D/R margin cannot identify the winner.210,944
2018 · U.S. House ↗D+61.2154,692

Historical district boundaries may differ. Margins compare Democratic and Republican vote totals. Nonstandard ballots are labeled separately.

The money

Bar length compares reported receipts in this race; the tick marks cash on hand. A missing filing stays blank rather than becoming $0.

One more fundraising reportCall the Map · $0

The candidates are comfortably out-fundraising the website covering them. A little rude, perhaps, but statistically unsurprising.

Received so far
$0
Measured compute
$26,188.58

Ko-fi and Buy Me a Coffee receipts are counted through Sep 1, 2026. Measured compute prices model runs at standard published API rates; it is not what I paid. Hosting, data and subscriptions, the domain and my own time are not counted. Donations buy gratitude, never a forecast adjustment.

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See the public support ledger →

No outside spending matched: Luz Maria Rivas, Angélica María Dueñas.

FEC filings · through 06/30/2026 · Definitions & method

No county projection here: this is a same-party general, so there is no Democratic-vs-Republican margin to project onto counties.

Race context

Forecast votes cast
161,440
2024 presidential margin
D+34.7