Who has voted so far.
How many registered Democrats, Republicans and unaffiliated voters have already voted in each state, against the same day before the election in 2022 and 2024.
- Party is registration, not a vote. How anyone voted is secret until the count.
- Early ballots often lean Democratic, not always. Compare a state with its own past, not with the result.
- 8.2% of these ballots were cast in person. In-person votes are in the counts for Maine; the rest came by mail.
How to read early-vote numbers
- Since 2020 Democrats have voted by mail more than Republicans, who vote more on Election Day; in-person early voting is more mixed. A party “ahead” early often just voted earlier.
- Registered Democrats led the final early vote in 8 of the 12 counts these states published in 2022 and 2024; registered Republicans led in North Carolina (2024), Iowa (2024) and Oklahoma (2022 and 2024).
- Unaffiliated voters are a large and growing share and can break either way.
- Each state is compared through its last complete day. Some files date a ballot by the day it was returned and add late entries to earlier days; others date it by the day it was logged, and earlier days stay as they are. The note under a state says which, and how much.
- 2022 is the last midterm and the fairer comparison; in 2024 Republicans pushed their voters to vote early, which raised their early share.
Against the same point in 2022
Change in ballots from each party’s registered voters, and the Democratic minus Republican share of all ballots. Through each state's last complete day (25 to 26 days before Election Day, depending on the state).
† Behind 2022 so far, in a file that still adds ballots to its latest days (North Carolina: 2 to 6% in past files); see the note under the state.
‡ Pennsylvania: changes and gaps are for the 23 of 67 counties under way in every year compared. Maine: 2022 is read through Oct 14, 2022, after the same number of working days. The ballot counts are statewide.
Not reporting yet: Iowa (about Oct 15), Oklahoma (about Oct 19), Colorado (about Oct 20). The dates are when each state began reporting in past years, not announcements.
North Carolina
Mail ballots returned so far; mail ballots went out Sep 4. In-person early voting has not started: it runs Oct 15 to Oct 31.
As of Oct 10 · North Carolina State Board of Elections, absentee file ↗
Through Oct 9, 25 days before Election Day, against the same day in 2022 and 2024.
- −31% vs 2022
- −38% vs 2024
- −21% vs 2022
- −68% vs 2024
- −11% vs 2022
- −44% vs 2024
- −23% vs 2022
- −48% vs 2024
North Carolina is 23% behind 2022 at this point. In past files, 2 to 6% of the ballots through the latest day were added later, so most of this gap is real.
Mail ballots went out 18 days later in 2024 (42 days before that election, against 60 this year), so 2024 had had less time by this point.
The gap between registered Democrats and Republicans
Ballots by party, day by day
Who has voted so far
Age
- 18-297.9%
- 30-4410.8%
- 45-6421.3%
- 65+60.1%
Gender
- Men45.6%
- Women54.4%
2,112 not stated in the file, left out of these shares.
Race and ethnicity
- Asian2.7%
- Black10.7%
- Hispanic2.4%
- Other2.3%
- White81.8%
2,864 not stated in the file, left out of these shares.
By congressional district and county
| District | Ballots |
|---|---|
| NC-01 | 1,217 |
| NC-02 | 3,051 |
| NC-03 | 897 |
| NC-04 | 3,786 |
| NC-05 | 1,342 |
| NC-06 | 1,622 |
| NC-07 | 1,993 |
| NC-08 | 1,789 |
| NC-09 | 1,702 |
| NC-10 | 1,942 |
| NC-11 | 2,951 |
| NC-12 | 1,541 |
| NC-13 | 2,136 |
| NC-14 | 1,870 |
| Largest counties | Ballots | D–R gap |
|---|---|---|
| Wake | 5,009 | D+31.8 |
| Mecklenburg | 3,053 | D+28.2 |
| Buncombe | 1,450 | D+36.4 |
| Durham | 1,236 | D+47.7 |
| Forsyth | 1,191 | D+29.0 |
| Guilford | 1,023 | D+36.0 |
| Orange | 914 | D+53.6 |
| Brunswick | 772 | D+16.7 |
About these numbers
- Counts ballots the board has accepted, including those accepted after a cure or with a photo-ID exception form; ballots awaiting a cure or review are not yet included.
- A ballot is dated by the return date the county keyed, which can be entered some days late. In three archived copies of this file, 2.5% to 5.4% of the accepted mail ballots through the latest complete day were added later; none of the three is from mid-October of a midterm year, so the range is a guide, not a bound.
- Since the 2023 municipal elections a mailed ballot needs a copy of photo ID or an exception form; in 2022 it did not.
- Mail ballots went out September 4, 2026, 60 days before the election.
- 1 ballot dated after the file's own date (a keying error in the file) is left out.
- 2024: Rebuilt from the board's final file. A ballot is dated by the return date the county keyed, which can be entered some days late.
- 2024: Mail ballots went out late in 2024: September 20 to military and overseas voters and September 24 to everyone else (42 days before the election, not the usual 60), after a court ordered ballots reprinted.
- 2024: Since the 2023 municipal elections a mailed ballot needs a copy of photo ID or an exception form; in 2022 it did not.
- 2024: From 2024 a mailed ballot must arrive by 7:30 p.m. on Election Day (no three-day grace period).
- 2024: Hurricane Helene disrupted voting in western counties in 2024.
- 2024: 2 accepted ballots with an impossible return date (a keying error in the file) are left out.
- 2022: Rebuilt from the board's final file. A ballot is dated by the return date the county keyed, which can be entered some days late.
- 2022: Mail ballots went out September 9, 2022, 60 days before the election.
- 2022: In 2022 a mailed ballot needed no photo ID, and counted if postmarked by Election Day and received within three days.
Pennsylvania
Mail ballots returned. Pennsylvania has no in-person early voting; voters can request and cast a mail ballot at their county office.
As of Oct 9 · Pennsylvania Department of State, mail ballot file ↗
Through Oct 8, 26 days before Election Day, against the same day in 2022 and 2024.
- −11% vs 2022
- −29% vs 2024
- +11% vs 2022
- −42% vs 2024
- +4% vs 2022
- −39% vs 2024
- −6% vs 2022
- −33% vs 2024
The comparison covers 23 of 67 counties, with 46% of this year’s ballots, because counties start logging returns on different days each year: Montgomery and Philadelphia have 46,033 and 46,014 ballots now and had 93 and 149 at this point in 2022. A county is compared once it had logged 5% of its final mail vote by this point in 2022 and 2024, and has logged as much this year. The counts above are statewide; the changes, the gap and the chart are for these counties.
Pennsylvania is 6% behind 2022 at this point in the counties compared. A ballot here is dated by the day the county logged it, so earlier days do not fill in later.
The gap between registered Democrats and Republicans, in the counties compared
Ballots by party, day by day, in the counties compared
Who has voted so far
The breakdowns below cover all 228,357 ballots in the state’s file: the 228,355 above and 2 dated Oct 9, a day the file holds only in part.
Age
- 18-293.4%
- 30-449.4%
- 45-6419.6%
- 65+67.6%
By congressional district and county
| District | Ballots |
|---|---|
| PA-01 | 7,525 |
| PA-02 | 16,899 |
| PA-03 | 27,324 |
| PA-04 | 34,931 |
| PA-05 | 6,974 |
| PA-06 | 1,939 |
| PA-07 | 1,846 |
| PA-08 | 15,895 |
| PA-09 | 9,934 |
| PA-10 | 6,549 |
| PA-11 | 8,570 |
| PA-12 | 24,085 |
| PA-13 | 4,737 |
| PA-14 | 990 |
| PA-15 | 7,749 |
| PA-16 | 19,440 |
| PA-17 | 32,970 |
| Largest counties | Ballots | D–R gap |
|---|---|---|
| Allegheny | 51,196 | D+59.9 |
| Montgomery | 46,033 | D+52.3 |
| Philadelphia | 46,014 | D+81.1 |
| Erie | 8,920 | D+54.1 |
| Lackawanna | 8,666 | D+63.2 |
| Lancaster | 8,552 | D+33.2 |
| Cumberland | 6,757 | D+28.6 |
| Beaver | 5,815 | D+52.0 |
About these numbers
- Mail and absentee ballots only: Pennsylvania has no in-person early voting; ballots marked at a county office in one visit count as mail.
- Counts ballots recorded as votes; returned ballots pending a cure or cancelled are not counted.
- A ballot is dated when the county logged it as returned, not when the voter sent it. Counties log in batches (Philadelphia especially), so daily counts are lumpy and the latest day is usually partial.
- Because the date is the logging date, earlier days do not fill in later: a copy of the 2022 file archived the day before that election held 1% more ballots for earlier dates than the final file, not fewer.
- Counties begin logging on different days each year, so the comparison with 2022 and 2024 is made county by county, in the counties under way in every year compared.
- 2024: Mail and absentee ballots only: Pennsylvania has no in-person early voting.
- 2024: Counts ballots recorded as votes; returned ballots pending a cure or cancelled are not counted.
- 2024: A ballot is dated when the county logged it as returned, not when the voter sent it. Counties log in batches (Philadelphia especially), so daily counts are lumpy.
- 2024: 1,568 ballots with an impossible return date are left out.
- 2022: Mail and absentee ballots only: Pennsylvania has no in-person early voting.
- 2022: Counts every ballot with a returned date. The 2022 file has no status column, so ballots a county later set aside (missing signature, date or secrecy envelope) are included; 2024 and 2026 count only ballots recorded as votes.
- 2022: A ballot is dated when the county logged it as returned, not when the voter sent it. Counties log in batches (Philadelphia especially), so daily counts are lumpy.
- 2022: Party is the applicant's designation: D and R, with every other entry as U.
Maine
Mail ballots returned and in-person early votes. In-person early voting runs Oct 5 to Oct 29. In person means an absentee ballot cast at the town clerk's office.
As of Oct 9 · Maine Secretary of State, statewide absentee voter file ↗
Through Oct 8, 26 days before Election Day, against Oct 14, 2022 (25 days before that election) and the same day in 2024.
- +32% vs 2022
- −11% vs 2024
- +18% vs 2022
- −40% vs 2024
- +58% vs 2022
- −22% vs 2024
- +35% vs 2022
- −21% vs 2024
2022 is read through Oct 14, 2022, one day later in its calendar. In 2022 clerks' offices opened for in-person voting on a Tuesday, after a Sunday and a holiday; this year they opened on a Monday. Until both years have had the same number of working days, 2022 is read after as many as this year has had.
The gap between registered Democrats and Republicans
Ballots by party, day by day
Who has voted so far
The breakdowns below cover all 44,439 ballots in the state’s file: the 39,054 above and 5,385 dated Oct 9, a day the file holds only in part.
How they voted
- By mail39.5%
- In person, early60.5%
By congressional district
| District | Ballots |
|---|---|
| ME-01 | 27,107 |
| ME-02 | 17,332 |
About these numbers
- Counts ballots received and accepted by clerks; rejected ballots and ballots awaiting a cure are not included.
- In person means absentee ballots voted in the clerk's presence before Election Day.
- Clerks enter ballots as they arrive; the latest day is usually partial.
- Since December 31, 2025 any voter may ask to be sent an absentee ballot for every election (ongoing absentee status, open only to voters 65 and over or with a disability in 2024 and to no one in 2022). The 2026 file marks those requests; the 2022 and 2024 files mark none.
- Whether clerks enter some ballots under an earlier date after the fact has not been measured: no earlier copy of this file survives to compare.
- 2024: Rebuilt from the state's final absentee file; a ballot is dated by when the clerk received it.
- 2024: In person means absentee ballots voted in the clerk's presence before Election Day.
- 2024: 2 ballots with an impossible return date are left out.
- 2022: Rebuilt from the state's final absentee file; a ballot is dated by when the clerk received it.
- 2022: In person means absentee ballots voted in the clerk's presence before Election Day.
- 2022: 2 ballots with an impossible return date are left out.
Which states, and why only these
A state is here only when its files let Democrats and Republicans be compared with the same point in 2022 and 2024: it registers voters by party, publishes returns while voting is under way, and its earlier counts by party survive day by day, not only as a final total. Several important states cannot meet that: Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Texas and Virginia do not register voters by party; Arizona and Nevada’s statewide office block automated reading of their files; Florida, Louisiana and Kentucky publish party counts today but kept only a final count for 2022 or 2024, so how the parties stood three weeks out cannot be known; and Maryland kept only a final file of its 2022 and 2024 mail ballots, with no daily copies, so its mail vote cannot be compared day by day.
Counts come straight from each state; we publish totals only and never the voter-level records some states release. See the methodology for how the forecast itself works; nothing on this page enters it.