Every source the forecast and the site read, judged against the rhythm that source is actually published on. Read live when you loaded this page — nothing here is frozen at build time and nothing is estimated. How the inputs become a forecast is on methodology.
Forecast published · edition ctm-2.2-20260909-1acc590f6537
Markets and Geography have not refreshed on schedule. The forecast keeps serving its last published edition, and every figure on the site carries the date it was measured.
| Source | Status | Newest data | Last checked | Moves the forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PollsRace and national polling intake. | fresh · <1h | YesYes — polls are evidence the model weighs. | ||
| MarketsPrediction-market quotes (Polymarket). | stale · 30h | NoNo — shown for comparison only. Markets were decoupled from every published number on 24 August 2026. | ||
| MoneyFEC totals, cash on hand, independent expenditures and ad spending. | delayed · 12h | NoNo — money is reported beside a race, never weighed into it. | ||
| WireCurated RSS news pointers from the governed outlet roster. | delayed · 6h | NoNo — the Wire is reading, not evidence. | ||
| SocialPosts from the governed Bluesky account roster. | delayed · 6h | NoNo — posts are reading, not evidence. | ||
| GeographyDistrict, county and precinct boundaries (vendored with the build). | unavailable | not recorded | not recorded | NoNo — boundaries draw the map; they do not move a number. |
Newest data is the most recent thing in the source — the last poll fielded, the last quote taken. Last checked is the last time we read that source successfully. They differ whenever a source has published nothing new, which is ordinary: a pollster who has not released a survey for three days is not a broken pipeline.
Public forecast data, free to use with attribution to Call the Map (callthemap.com). The downloads are refreshed with every update, so link to this page rather than caching a file.