{ "candidate_quality_layer": { "close_band_d": 7.5, "contract": "ctm-candidate-quality-house-layer-v1", "disclosed_races_n": 7, "label": "JUDGMENT_INCLUDED", "loading_source": "data/model/candidate_quality_house_loading_2026.json", "loading_source_sha256": "7416cff1af627aba808e0d23a725fb0cbc6b1ec2ba1389519551b550ffbb6094", "rule": { "band": "close_shrink_only", "close_band_abs_none_lt_d": 7.5, "formula": "selected = none + w * (candidate - none)", "missingness": "no panel row / no named major-party pair / no strictly-prior history for both sides -> contribution exactly 0 AND a recorded missingness flag; scores are never invented", "out_of_band_weight": 0, "sign_condition": "candidate signal must OPPOSE the sign of the none-center; reinforcing evidence has weight exactly 0", "structural_locks_out_of_scope": true, "weight_w": 0.1 }, "signal_panel": "data/model/layer_b_candidate_2026.json", "signal_panel_sha256": "86431cb0870e54dd190d2a0e6793af467aadb0e04719ce9c2220ddd48d2a6bf5", "surface": "house", "trial": "HOUSE-2022-BLOCK-DIRECTIONAL-RELIABILITY-TRIAL7", "weight": 0.1 }, "control_prob_D": 0.73901, "expected_D_seats": 229.44476, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "model_term_policy": { "model": "CTMM 2.1", "twin_poll_residual": { "comparison": "docs/model/twin-migration-2026-09-08/comparison.json", "comparison_sha256": "b3be811d276513517c830a24d5cc72166de45a9935ff061eaa1832ded1dea90b", "decision": "docs/model/twin-migration-2026-09-08/DECISION.md", "disposition": "RETIRED_FROM_CTMM21_RETAINED_IN_V1", "forecast_effect": "No frozen v1 overlay is added. CTMM 2.1 candidate centers and draws are unchanged by this term policy. Legacy same-party latent-coordinate explanations are replaced with the already computed current coordinate.", "legacy_artifact_sha256": "ee43f0fa35ca8225a4a16d180434ae5fbdecdf6ee452504832ac97af6d600bcd" } }, "multiparty_control": { "admitted_by_election_rule": [ "AK-AL", "GA-01", "GA-02", "GA-03", "GA-04", "GA-05", "GA-06", "GA-07", "GA-08", "GA-09", "GA-10", "GA-11", "GA-12", "GA-13", "GA-14", "LA-01", "LA-02", "LA-03", "LA-04", "LA-05", "LA-06", "ME-01", "ME-02" ], "admitted_by_third_outcome": [ "AK-AL", "CA-06" ], "basis": "ctmm21_joint_draws", "binary_lane_seats": [ "GA-01", "GA-02", "GA-03", "GA-04", "GA-05", "GA-06", "GA-07", "GA-08", "GA-09", "GA-10", "GA-11", "GA-12", "GA-13", "GA-14", "LA-01", "LA-02", "LA-03", "LA-04", "LA-05", "LA-06", "ME-01", "ME-02" ], "contract": "ctm-multiparty-seat-control-v1", "ctmm21_note": "outcome shares, expected seats, partitions and per-seat party partitions regenerated from the CTMM 2.2 draws and person probabilities; membership lists and election-rule ids carried", "d_majority_threshold": 218, "d_outright": 0.73901, "d_total_distribution": { "134": 0.00001, "140": 0.00001, "150": 0.00001, "152": 0.00001, "153": 0.00001, "155": 0.00001, "160": 0.00001, "164": 0.00001, "165": 0.00001, "166": 0.00001, "168": 0.00002, "170": 0.00004, "171": 0.00001, "172": 0.00001, "173": 0.00001, "174": 0.00005, "175": 0.00003, "176": 0.00002, "177": 0.00006, "178": 0.00005, "179": 0.00006, "180": 0.00003, "181": 0.00004, "182": 0.00007, "183": 0.00012, "184": 0.00004, "185": 0.00018, "186": 0.00021, "187": 0.00016, "188": 0.00026, "189": 0.00021, "190": 0.00037, "191": 0.00042, "192": 0.00068, "193": 0.00076, "194": 0.0009, "195": 0.00104, "196": 0.00161, "197": 0.00222, "198": 0.003, "199": 0.0036, "200": 0.00505, "201": 0.0058, "202": 0.00691, "203": 0.00857, "204": 0.00885, "205": 0.00991, "206": 0.01086, "207": 0.01274, "208": 0.01333, "209": 0.01409, "210": 0.01544, "211": 0.01565, "212": 0.01718, "213": 0.0185, "214": 0.01934, "215": 0.02008, "216": 0.02033, "217": 0.02198, "218": 0.02188, "219": 0.02137, "220": 0.02356, "221": 0.02343, "222": 0.0238, "223": 0.025, "224": 0.02396, "225": 0.02401, "226": 0.02408, "227": 0.02362, "228": 0.02387, "229": 0.02346, "230": 0.02346, "231": 0.02218, "232": 0.02171, "233": 0.02084, "234": 0.02028, "235": 0.02014, "236": 0.01984, "237": 0.01794, "238": 0.01728, "239": 0.01696, "240": 0.01676, "241": 0.01621, "242": 0.01482, "243": 0.01391, "244": 0.01346, "245": 0.01231, "246": 0.01202, "247": 0.01149, "248": 0.00996, "249": 0.0104, "250": 0.0098, "251": 0.00923, "252": 0.00783, "253": 0.00704, "254": 0.00716, "255": 0.0064, "256": 0.00616, "257": 0.00569, "258": 0.00557, "259": 0.00503, "260": 0.00452, "261": 0.00445, "262": 0.00372, "263": 0.00357, "264": 0.0032, "265": 0.00325, "266": 0.0028, "267": 0.00226, "268": 0.00224, "269": 0.00228, "270": 0.0021, "271": 0.00174, "272": 0.00154, "273": 0.00138, "274": 0.00125, "275": 0.00125, "276": 0.00123, "277": 0.00121, "278": 0.00076, "279": 0.00085, "280": 0.00077, "281": 0.00081, "282": 0.00068, "283": 0.00069, "284": 0.00054, "285": 0.00059, "286": 0.00049, "287": 0.00036, "288": 0.00038, "289": 0.00029, "290": 0.00036, "291": 0.00037, "292": 0.00024, "293": 0.00028, "294": 0.00028, "295": 0.00018, "296": 0.0001, "297": 0.00021, "298": 0.00022, "299": 0.00015, "300": 0.00017, "301": 0.00013, "302": 0.00007, "303": 0.00011, "304": 0.00005, "305": 0.00011, "306": 0.00006, "307": 0.00004, "308": 0.00007, "309": 0.00007, "311": 0.00003, "312": 0.00003, "313": 0.0001, "314": 0.00002, "315": 0.00002, "316": 0.00008, "317": 0.00001, "318": 0.00004, "319": 0.00001, "320": 0.00001, "321": 0.00001, "322": 0.00003, "323": 0.00002, "324": 0.00001, "326": 0.00001, "328": 0.00002, "330": 0.00003, "331": 0.00001, "335": 0.00004, "337": 0.00001, "338": 0.00002, "339": 0.00001, "341": 0.00002, "343": 0.00001, "347": 0.00001, "351": 0.00001 }, "definition": "d_outright = P(Democratic seats reach the majority threshold with no independent needed); r_outright likewise for Republicans (the Republican Vice-President breaks a Senate tie, so the R threshold is 50 there); hinges_on_independents = the remaining probability, where one or more independent winners decide which side has a majority. No caucus assumption is made anywhere: an independent's seat is its own outcome.", "expected_d_seats": 229.44476, "expected_independent_seats": 0, "expected_r_seats": 205.55524, "hinges_on_independents": 0, "legacy": { "control_prob_d": 0.73901, "expected_d_seats": 229.44476, "note": "CTMM 2.2 outright accounting over the same draws", "seat_distribution": { "134": 1, "140": 1, "150": 1, "152": 1, "153": 1, "155": 1, "160": 1, "164": 1, "165": 1, "166": 1, "168": 2, "170": 4, "171": 1, "172": 1, "173": 1, "174": 5, "175": 3, "176": 2, "177": 6, "178": 5, "179": 6, "180": 3, "181": 4, "182": 7, "183": 12, "184": 4, "185": 18, "186": 21, "187": 16, "188": 26, "189": 21, "190": 37, "191": 42, "192": 68, "193": 76, "194": 90, "195": 104, "196": 161, "197": 222, "198": 300, "199": 360, "200": 505, "201": 580, "202": 691, "203": 857, "204": 885, "205": 991, "206": 1086, "207": 1274, "208": 1333, "209": 1409, "210": 1544, "211": 1565, "212": 1718, "213": 1850, "214": 1934, "215": 2008, "216": 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"299": 15, "300": 17, "301": 13, "302": 7, "303": 11, "304": 5, "305": 11, "306": 6, "307": 4, "308": 7, "309": 7, "311": 3, "312": 3, "313": 10, "314": 2, "315": 2, "316": 8, "317": 1, "318": 4, "319": 1, "320": 1, "321": 1, "322": 3, "323": 2, "324": 1, "326": 1, "328": 2, "330": 3, "331": 1, "335": 4, "337": 1, "338": 2, "339": 1, "341": 2, "343": 1, "347": 1, "351": 1 } }, "legacy_binary_control_prob_d": 0.73901, "membership_rule": "in the overlay when the election rule is round-based (max_rounds > 1: ranked choice / top-four, or a majority runoff) OR the non-major candidates carry >= 0.005 of the admitted win probability; out only when neither holds (owner ruling 2026-09-02)", "min_third_outcome_prob": 0.005, "n_simulations": 100000, "p_any_independent_seat": 0, "partition_by_d_total": { "134": { "d_outright": 0, "draws": 1, "hinges_on_independents": 0, "r_outright": 1 }, "140": { "d_outright": 0, "draws": 1, "hinges_on_independents": 0, "r_outright": 1 }, "150": { "d_outright": 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"r_outright": 1 }, "173": { "d_outright": 0, "draws": 1, "hinges_on_independents": 0, "r_outright": 1 }, "174": { "d_outright": 0, "draws": 5, "hinges_on_independents": 0, "r_outright": 5 }, "175": { "d_outright": 0, "draws": 3, "hinges_on_independents": 0, "r_outright": 3 }, "176": { "d_outright": 0, "draws": 2, "hinges_on_independents": 0, "r_outright": 2 }, "177": { "d_outright": 0, "draws": 6, "hinges_on_independents": 0, "r_outright": 6 }, "178": { "d_outright": 0, "draws": 5, "hinges_on_independents": 0, "r_outright": 5 }, "179": { "d_outright": 0, "draws": 6, "hinges_on_independents": 0, "r_outright": 6 }, "180": { "d_outright": 0, "draws": 3, "hinges_on_independents": 0, "r_outright": 3 }, "181": { "d_outright": 0, "draws": 4, "hinges_on_independents": 0, "r_outright": 4 }, "182": { "d_outright": 0, "draws": 7, "hinges_on_independents": 0, "r_outright": 7 }, "183": { "d_outright": 0, "draws": 12, "hinges_on_independents": 0, "r_outright": 12 }, "184": { "d_outright": 0, 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CTMM 2.2 has no nominee-status polling veto; an empty poll set is not a withheld-polls claim. Any earlier-model counterfactual is retained as historical context only.", "removed_candidate_adjustment_disclosure_d_v1": 0, "removed_candidate_incumbency_d_v1": 0.09, "removed_named_poll_v1": null, "source_model_v1": "R63_HOUSE_CORE_PLUS_ORDINAL_RATINGS", "withheld_inputs": [], "withheld_inputs_v1": [ "candidate_quality", "candidate_finance", "candidate_advertising", "named_candidate_general_election_polls" ] }, "notes": { "core": "Generic-party House core. 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CTMM 2.2 has no nominee-status polling veto; an empty poll set is not a withheld-polls claim. Any earlier-model counterfactual is retained as historical context only.", "removed_candidate_adjustment_disclosure_d_v1": 0.0038910508095625, "removed_candidate_incumbency_d_v1": 2.47, "removed_named_poll_v1": null, "source_model_v1": "R63_HOUSE_CORE_PLUS_ORDINAL_RATINGS", "withheld_inputs": [], "withheld_inputs_v1": [ "candidate_quality", "candidate_finance", "candidate_advertising", "named_candidate_general_election_polls" ] }, "notes": { "core": "Generic-party House core. 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