{ "caucus_aligned": { "aligned_seat_distribution": { "38": 0.00002, "39": 0.00004, "40": 0.00024, "41": 0.00085, "42": 0.00334, "43": 0.00883, "44": 0.01944, "45": 0.03745, "46": 0.06256, "47": 0.08859, "48": 0.1098, "49": 0.11963, "50": 0.12381, "51": 0.11799, "52": 0.1038, "53": 0.0858, "54": 0.05638, "55": 0.03332, "56": 0.0167, "57": 0.00732, "58": 0.00271, "59": 0.0009, "60": 0.00039, "61": 0.00008, "62": 0.00001 }, "alignment_materiality_threshold": 0.005, "alignment_source": "senate_caucus_alignment_2026.json", "alignments": { "SEN-AK": "none", "SEN-MT": "D", "SEN-NE": "D", "SEN-SD": "D" }, "contract": "ctm-senate-caucus-aligned-control-v1", "control_prob_d_aligned": 0.4254, "control_prob_r_aligned": 0.5746, "definition": "Each modeled independent's simulated wins count with the caucus the governed alignment file records for them (owner ruling 2026-08-23); the seats not on the ballot already carry their alignments in the 34-seat Democratic-aligned carry. control_prob_d_aligned = P(D-aligned seats >= 51); control_prob_r_aligned is its exact drawwise complement (R controls at 50 with the Republican Vice-President's tiebreak). The no-caucus three-outcome block remains published beside this one.", "expected_d_aligned_seats": 49.90284, "market_safeguard": { "age_days": 1, "applied": false, "band": [ 0.42500000000000004, 0.625 ], "contract": "ctm-senate-control-market-safeguard-v1", "freshness_window_days": [ 0, 1 ], "guarded_p_d_control": 0.4254, "maximum_market_gap": 0.1, "polymarket_fetched": "2026-09-08T21:18:56.788624+00:00", "polymarket_p_d_control": 0.525, "polymarket_volume_usd": 2480305.7187869987, "preregistration": "docs/model/BOARD_REALISM_ROUND_PREREGISTRATION_2026-08-23.md", "raw_aligned_p_d_control": 0.4254, "reason": "MARKET_DECOUPLED_BY_OWNER_RULING_2026_08_24" }, "n_independent_seats_aligned_d": 3, "preregistration": "docs/model/SENATE_IND_1_PREREGISTRATION_2026-08-23.md", "two_party_seats_by_rule": [ "SEN-GA", "SEN-ME" ], "unaligned_immaterial_seats": { "SEN-AK": 0 } }, "control_hinges_on_independents": 0.011609999999999954, "control_prob_D": 0.43537, "control_prob_D_outright": 0.42376, "control_prob_R": 0.56463, "control_prob_R_outright": 0.56463, "control_prob_definition": "control_prob_D is the probability the DEMOCRATIC-ALIGNED side reaches 51 seats, counting each modeled independent's simulated wins with the caucus the governed alignment file records for them (owner ruling 2026-08-23, SENATE-IND-1 R3; data/model/senate_caucus_alignment_2026.json carries the per-person rationales); control_prob_R is its exact drawwise complement (Republicans control at 50 with the Republican Vice-President's tiebreak). The no-caucus three-outcome accounting remains published beside it: control_prob_D_outright, control_prob_R_outright and control_hinges_on_independents, with the full block under multiparty_control and the superseded latent lane under multiparty_control.legacy. Preregistrations: docs/model/MULTIPARTY_SEAT_CONTROL_V2_PUBLICATION_PREREGISTRATION_2026-08-22.md and docs/model/SENATE_IND_1_PREREGISTRATION_2026-08-23.md.", "expected_D_aligned_seats": 49.95878, "expected_D_seats": 49.8338, "expected_I_seats": 0.12498, "expected_R_seats": 50.04122, "independents_counted_aligned": [ "SEN-ID", "SEN-NE", "SEN-SD" ], "model": "CTMM 2.2", "model_term_policy": { "model": "CTMM 2.1", "twin_poll_residual": { "comparison": "docs/model/twin-migration-2026-09-08/comparison.json", "comparison_sha256": "b3be811d276513517c830a24d5cc72166de45a9935ff061eaa1832ded1dea90b", "decision": "docs/model/twin-migration-2026-09-08/DECISION.md", "disposition": "RETIRED_FROM_CTMM21_RETAINED_IN_V1", "forecast_effect": "No frozen v1 overlay is added. CTMM 2.1 candidate centers and draws are unchanged by this term policy. Legacy same-party latent-coordinate explanations are replaced with the already computed current coordinate.", "legacy_artifact_sha256": "ee43f0fa35ca8225a4a16d180434ae5fbdecdf6ee452504832ac97af6d600bcd" } }, "multiparty_control": { "admitted_by_election_rule": [ "SEN-AK", "SEN-GA", "SEN-ME" ], "admitted_by_third_outcome": [ "SEN-MT", "SEN-NE", "SEN-SD" ], "basis": "ctmm21_joint_draws", "binary_lane_seats": [ "SEN-GA", "SEN-ME" ], "contract": "ctm-multiparty-seat-control-v1", "ctmm21_note": "outcome shares, expected seats, partitions and per-seat party partitions regenerated from the CTMM 2.2 draws and person probabilities; membership lists and election-rule ids carried", "d_majority_threshold": 51, "d_outright": 0.42376, "d_total_distribution": { "38": 0.00004, "39": 0.00011, "40": 0.0004, "41": 0.00143, "42": 0.00475, "43": 0.01321, "44": 0.02376, "45": 0.04127, "46": 0.06155, "47": 0.08652, "48": 0.10419, "49": 0.11807, "50": 0.12094, "51": 0.11912, "52": 0.10397, "53": 0.0829, "54": 0.05498, "55": 0.03211, "56": 0.01651, "57": 0.00837, "58": 0.00365, "59": 0.00131, "60": 0.00044, "61": 0.00021, "62": 0.00011, "63": 0.00007, "64": 0.00001 }, "definition": "d_outright = P(Democratic seats reach the majority threshold with no independent needed); r_outright likewise for Republicans (the Republican Vice-President breaks a Senate tie, so the R threshold is 50 there); hinges_on_independents = the remaining probability, where one or more independent winners decide which side has a majority. No caucus assumption is made anywhere: an independent's seat is its own outcome.", "expected_d_seats": 49.8338, "expected_independent_seats": 0.12498, "expected_r_seats": 50.04122, "hinges_on_independents": 0.01161, "legacy": { "control_prob_d": 0.42376, "expected_d_seats": 49.8338, "note": "CTMM 2.2 outright accounting over the same draws", "seat_distribution": { "38": 4, "39": 11, "40": 40, "41": 143, "42": 475, "43": 1321, "44": 2376, "45": 4127, "46": 6155, "47": 8652, "48": 10419, "49": 11807, "50": 12094, "51": 11912, "52": 10397, "53": 8290, "54": 5498, "55": 3211, "56": 1651, "57": 837, "58": 365, "59": 131, "60": 44, "61": 21, "62": 11, "63": 7, "64": 1 } }, "legacy_binary_control_prob_d": 0.42376, "membership_rule": "in the overlay when the election rule is round-based (max_rounds > 1: ranked choice / top-four, or a majority runoff) OR the non-major candidates carry >= 0.005 of the admitted win probability; out only when neither holds (owner ruling 2026-09-02)", "min_third_outcome_prob": 0.005, "n_simulations": 100000, "p_any_independent_seat": 0.11922, "partition_by_d_total": { "38": { "d_outright": 0, "draws": 4, "hinges_on_independents": 0, "r_outright": 4 }, "39": { "d_outright": 0, "draws": 11, "hinges_on_independents": 0, "r_outright": 11 }, "40": { "d_outright": 0, "draws": 40, "hinges_on_independents": 0, "r_outright": 40 }, "41": { "d_outright": 0, "draws": 143, "hinges_on_independents": 0, "r_outright": 143 }, "42": { "d_outright": 0, "draws": 475, "hinges_on_independents": 0, "r_outright": 475 }, "43": { "d_outright": 0, "draws": 1321, "hinges_on_independents": 0, "r_outright": 1321 }, "44": { "d_outright": 0, "draws": 2376, "hinges_on_independents": 0, "r_outright": 2376 }, "45": { "d_outright": 0, "draws": 4127, "hinges_on_independents": 0, "r_outright": 4127 }, "46": { "d_outright": 0, "draws": 6155, "hinges_on_independents": 0, "r_outright": 6155 }, "47": { "d_outright": 0, "draws": 8652, "hinges_on_independents": 0, "r_outright": 8652 }, "48": { "d_outright": 0, "draws": 10419, "hinges_on_independents": 0, "r_outright": 10419 }, "49": { "d_outright": 0, "draws": 11807, "hinges_on_independents": 5, "r_outright": 11802 }, "50": { "d_outright": 0, "draws": 12094, "hinges_on_independents": 1156, "r_outright": 10938 }, "51": { "d_outright": 11912, "draws": 11912, "hinges_on_independents": 0, "r_outright": 0 }, "52": { "d_outright": 10397, "draws": 10397, "hinges_on_independents": 0, "r_outright": 0 }, "53": { "d_outright": 8290, "draws": 8290, "hinges_on_independents": 0, "r_outright": 0 }, "54": { "d_outright": 5498, "draws": 5498, "hinges_on_independents": 0, "r_outright": 0 }, "55": { "d_outright": 3211, "draws": 3211, "hinges_on_independents": 0, "r_outright": 0 }, "56": { "d_outright": 1651, "draws": 1651, "hinges_on_independents": 0, "r_outright": 0 }, "57": { "d_outright": 837, "draws": 837, "hinges_on_independents": 0, "r_outright": 0 }, "58": { "d_outright": 365, "draws": 365, "hinges_on_independents": 0, "r_outright": 0 }, "59": { "d_outright": 131, "draws": 131, "hinges_on_independents": 0, "r_outright": 0 }, "60": { "d_outright": 44, "draws": 44, "hinges_on_independents": 0, "r_outright": 0 }, "61": { "d_outright": 21, "draws": 21, "hinges_on_independents": 0, "r_outright": 0 }, "62": { "d_outright": 11, "draws": 11, "hinges_on_independents": 0, "r_outright": 0 }, "63": { "d_outright": 7, "draws": 7, "hinges_on_independents": 0, "r_outright": 0 }, "64": { "d_outright": 1, "draws": 1, "hinges_on_independents": 0, "r_outright": 0 } }, "preregistration": "docs/model/MULTIPARTY_SEAT_CONTROL_V1_PREREGISTRATION_2026-08-22.md", "r_majority_threshold": 50, "r_outright": 0.56463, "seats": { "SEN-AK": { "binary_lane_p_d": 0.48390591865023613, "election_rule_id": "ak-top-four-rcv", "election_rule_kind": "top_four_rcv", "field_model_partition": { "D": 0.486, "I": 0, "R": 0.514 }, "field_partition": { "D": 0.486, "I": 0, "R": 0.514 }, "non_major_candidates": 1, "overlay_basis": "election_rule", "partition_source": "ctmm21_joint_simulation_person_probabilities", "round_based_rule": true, "simulated_frequency": { "D": 0.486, "I": 0, "R": 0.514 } }, "SEN-GA": { "binary_lane_p_d": 0.8946914596941158, "election_rule_id": "ga-majority-runoff", "election_rule_kind": "majority_runoff", "field_model_partition": { "D": 0.89165, "I": 0, "R": 0.10835 }, "field_partition": { "D": 0.89565, "I": 0, "R": 0.10435000000000005 }, "non_major_candidates": 0, "overlay_basis": "election_rule", "partition_source": "binary_lane", "round_based_rule": true, "simulated_frequency": { "D": 0.89565, "I": 0, "R": 0.10435000000000005 } }, "SEN-ME": { "binary_lane_p_d": 0.5612084032234438, "election_rule_id": "me-rcv-federal", "election_rule_kind": "ranked_choice", "field_model_partition": { "D": 0.518925, "I": 0, "R": 0.481075 }, "field_partition": { "D": 0.51764, "I": 0, "R": 0.48236 }, "non_major_candidates": 0, "overlay_basis": "election_rule", "partition_source": "binary_lane", "round_based_rule": true, "simulated_frequency": { "D": 0.51764, "I": 0, "R": 0.48236 } }, "SEN-MT": { "binary_lane_p_d": 0.061530791462870174, "election_rule_id": "plurality-partisan", "election_rule_kind": "plurality", "field_model_partition": { "D": 0.0864, "I": 0.2136, "R": 0.7 }, "field_partition": { "D": 0.0864, "I": 0.2136, "R": 0.7 }, "non_major_candidates": 1, "overlay_basis": "third_outcome", "partition_source": "ctmm21_joint_simulation_person_probabilities", "round_based_rule": false, "simulated_frequency": { "D": 0.0864, "I": 0.2136, "R": 0.7 } }, "SEN-NE": { "binary_lane_p_d": 0.10489239138546864, "election_rule_id": "plurality-partisan", "election_rule_kind": "plurality", "field_model_partition": { "D": 0, "I": 0.153875, "R": 0.846125 }, "field_partition": { "D": 0, "I": 0.153875, "R": 0.846125 }, "non_major_candidates": 1, "overlay_basis": "third_outcome", "partition_source": "field_model", "round_based_rule": false, "simulated_frequency": { "D": 0, "I": 0.15388, "R": 0.84612 } }, "SEN-SD": { "binary_lane_p_d": 0.014459709552378503, "election_rule_id": "plurality-partisan", "election_rule_kind": "plurality", "field_model_partition": { "D": 0, "I": 0.06075, "R": 0.93925 }, "field_partition": { "D": 0, "I": 0.06075, "R": 0.93925 }, "non_major_candidates": 1, "overlay_basis": "third_outcome", "partition_source": "field_model", "round_based_rule": false, "simulated_frequency": { "D": 0, "I": 0.06075, "R": 0.93925 } } } }, "publication_label": "CTMM 2.2 — expert-free forecasting, smooth Senate calibration and fitted uncertainty", "races": [ { "band": { "p10": -28.81709127494098, "p90": -6.935847321900351 }, "base": -17.876469298420666, "binary_publication_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "binary_withheld_reason": null, "candidate_ids": [ "cand-fec-s6al00393", "cand-fec-s6al00427", "cand-fec-s6al00435", "cand-fec-s6al00443", "cand-fec-s6al00450", "cand-fec-s6al00468", "cand-fec-s6al00476", "cand-fec-s6al00484", "cand-fec-s6al00500", "cand-fec-s6al00518" ], "centre_v2_stack": -17.876469298420666, "decomp": { "environment": 1.6518812597431332, "expert_ratings": 0, "fundamentals": -16.658293645371895, "historical_calibration": 0, "ledger": "CTMM 2.2: structural prior -> national environment -> (finance) -> polls -> centre calibration -> Senate smooth compression calibration / G1 governor calibration; expert ratings excluded", "polls": -0.7012423429146928, "structural_calibration": -2.1688145698772114 }, "decomp_ctmm21": { "centre_calibration": -2.1688145698772114, "environment": 1.6518812597431332, "expert_ratings": 0, "expert_target_gap": 0, "finance": 0, "g1_centre_calibration": 0, "polls": -0.7012423429146928, "prior": -16.658293645371895 }, "decomp_v1_carried": null, "distribution": { "calibration_method": "full-stack OOF log-error quantile regression; nonnegative tail; coherent Student-t", "coherent_cdf": true, "df": 8, "family": "v2_sigma_law_student_t", "poll_bias_sd_in_sigma": false, "prob_calibration": { "a": 0, "applied": false, "b": 1 }, "scale_basis": "full-stack OOF residuals already include realized polling errors", "sigma": 8.25059576579408, "z50": 0.6705947921146288, "z80": 1.3260402384369312, "z95": 2.189161481802059, "zscale": 0.9493311171396656 }, "field": { "candidates": [ { "cand_id": "SEN-AL:R", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.9740589130627908, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Barry Moore", "party": "R", "share_mean": 58.38569679359708, "share_p10": 51.587154792648136, "share_p90": 65.24765019394002, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.9740589130627908 }, { "cand_id": "SEN-AL:D", "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "first_round_lead_prob": 0.025941086937209236, "incumbent": false, "is_generic": false, "name": "Everett Wess", "party": "D", "share_mean": 40.646397215677936, "share_p10": 33.81811140411911, "share_p90": 47.421215326404415, "through_runoff_win_prob": null, "win_prob": 0.025941086937209236 } ], "claim_strength": "COMPLETE", "election_rule_id": "plurality-partisan", "election_rule_kind": "plurality", "field_status": "ORDINARY_TWO_PARTY", "other_share": { "mean": 0.9679059907249934, "p10": 0.16263540262866294, "p90": 2.1251364336520235 }, "registry_verified": true, "schema_version": "ctm.r70.field-race-record.v1", "through_runoff_applies": false, "through_runoff_note": "plurality-partisan: one round, most votes wins, so the first-round lead probability IS the win probability.", "through_runoff_outright_prob": 1, "two_party": { "center": -17.876469298420666, "distribution": { "calibration_method": "full-stack OOF log-error quantile regression; nonnegative tail; coherent Student-t", "coherent_cdf": true, "df": 8, "family": "v2_sigma_law_student_t", "poll_bias_sd_in_sigma": false, "prob_calibration": { "a": 0, "applied": false, "b": 1 }, "scale_basis": "full-stack OOF residuals already include realized polling errors", "sigma": 8.25059576579408, "z50": 0.6705947921146288, "z80": 1.3260402384369312, "z95": 2.189161481802059, "zscale": 0.9493311171396656 }, "pivot_a": "SEN-AL:D", "pivot_b": "SEN-AL:R", "pivot_is_d_vs_r": true, "pivot_lead_prob": 0.025941086937209236, "pivot_scope": "CANDIDATE_PAIR", "published_base": -17.876469298420666, "published_binary_status": "PUBLISHABLE_BINARY", "published_win_prob_D": 0.025941086937209236, "sigma": 8.25059576579408 } }, "g1_centre_calibration": 0, "held": "R", "interval50": [ -23.409275850805184, -12.343662746036149 ], "interval95": [ -35.93835575081623, 0.1854171539748961 ], "latent_party_control_probability_D": 0.025941086937209236, "margin_semantics": { "binary_party_center": -17.876469298420666, "candidate_mean_share": { "Barry Moore": 58.38569679359708, "Everett Wess": 40.646397215677936 }, "candidate_pair_margin": 17.73929957791914, "leader_id": "SEN-AL:R", "leader_margin": 17.73929957791914, "leader_party": "R", "published_headline": "two_party_dr_margin", "runner_up_id": "SEN-AL:D", "two_party_dr_margin": -17.876469298420666 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "model_component": "CTMM_2_2", "notes": { "consensus_layer": "Exact revision after the governed current Senate board enters the release consensus and uncertainty layer.", "poll_calendar_factor": 0.8607735, "polls": "1 matchup-validated, sample/recency/grade-weighted poll(s), latest 2026-07-11", "quality": null }, "open": true, "p": "Alabama", "publication_label": "CTMM 2.2 — expert-free forecasting, smooth Senate calibration and fitted uncertainty", "r68_consensus_evidence": { "base_evidence_edition_id": "ctm-1.0-20260909-3c4daae0318b", "base_total_sigma": 10.690166801191593, "basis": "executing_model", "expert": { "applied": false, "cap": 0, "contribution_d": 0, "geography_excluded": [], "mapped_median_center_d": null, "policy": "EXCLUDED_FROM_ALL_OFFICES", "publisher_count": 0, "sources": [], "weight": 0 }, "final_center_d": -17.876469298420666, "final_p_d": 0.025941086937209236, "final_total_sigma": 8.537012688889389, "market": { "dual_consensus": false, "eligibility_reason": "display_only_not_a_model_input", "eligible": false, "mode": "NONE", "ordinary_probability_delta_d": 0, "weight": 0 }, "model": "CTMM 2.2", "poll_corroboration": { "center_d": -15, "n_eff": 0.500416493200081 }, "sigma_recomputation": { "admitted": true, "band_is_declared_distribution_quantiles": true, "distribution": { "calibration_method": "full-stack OOF log-error quantile regression; nonnegative tail; coherent Student-t", "coherent_cdf": true, "df": 8, "family": "v2_sigma_law_student_t", "poll_bias_sd_in_sigma": false, "prob_calibration": { "a": 0, "applied": false, "b": 1 }, "scale_basis": "full-stack OOF residuals already include realized polling errors", "sigma": 8.25059576579408, "z50": 0.6705947921146288, "z80": 1.3260402384369312, "z95": 2.189161481802059, "zscale": 0.9493311171396656 }, "method": "v2_sigma_law_student_t", "previous_final_total_sigma": 10.690166801191593, "reason": "CTMM_2_1_DECLARED_DISTRIBUTION" } }, "race_id": "SEN-AL", "rating": 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