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Forecast7 days out

The forecast projects an even split of governorships.

Although the state count is even, more people would live in states governed by Democratic governors.

Forecast as of October 26, 2026: 25 Democratic and 25 Republican governorships projected nationwide, counting the states with no race this year. 36 governor's races are on the 2026 ballot.

25·25projected governorships nationwide

GAMIAZNVWIKSIAPANHMEOHAKORNMMNCACOMDILNYCTRIHIMAVTTXFLALARIDOKSCSDTNNEWYWAMTNDINNJUTMOKYWVVADENCLAMS

36 governor races. Every governor gets a budget office; here the budget office is also the data desk, the copy desk and the night shift. Get what moved by emailSupport the work

The Flippers

5 of 36 governorships are projected to change hands. Hover or tap for the forecast.

Possible outcomes

D 25 / R 25

12.8% of simulations

Democratic governorships, out of 50

Middle 80% 21–29Median 25 · mean 25.1

Outcomes beyond this chart: 0.2% of simulations.

Explore the geographic map →

Who governs the population?

Area = population · color = chance of party control · all 50 states, largest first.

— 5 governorships change party checked = no election in 2026
California39,355,309 residents
2026 election
Yes
Governor today
Democratic
Forecast
D 98.9% · R 1.1%
Expected population
D 38.9M · R 0.4M

U.S. Census Bureau · NST-EST2025-ALLDATA. Vintage 2025 resident population estimates · July 1, 2025. Resident population across the 50 states: 341,091,212. Probabilities cover 36/36 election states; 14/14 states are not voting.

206.7Maverage population governed by Democrats
134.2Maverage population governed by Republicans
25.1average Democratic-governed states
24.8average Republican-governed states

The modeled races · closest first

8 of 36
Oregon · GovernorFlipTina Kotek (D) vs. Christine Drazan (R)Tilt RR+0.8Ohio · GovernorFlipAmy Acton (D) vs. Vivek Ramaswamy (R) · openTilt DD+0.9Wisconsin · GovernorDavid Crowley (D) vs. Tom Tiffany (R) · openTilt DD+2.0Georgia · GovernorKeisha Lance Bottoms (D) vs. Rick Jackson (R) · openTilt RR+2.2Nevada · GovernorAaron Ford (D) vs. Joe Lombardo (R)Lean RR+3.3Nebraska · GovernorLynne Walz (D) vs. Jim Pillen (R)Lean RR+5.6Texas · GovernorGina Hinojosa (D) vs. Greg Abbott (R)Lean RR+5.8Michigan · GovernorJocelyn Benson (D) vs. John James (R) · openLean DD+6.3
See every competitive race on The Map →

What if the national environment moved?

Explore scenarios for the governorships

Where we disagree with the markets

Democratic win chance · forecast vs. Polymarket. Markets never feed the forecast. Quotes: Oct 26, 2026.

Race
Nevada28 in 10070 in 10042 pts more Democratic in market
Oregon45 in 10082 in 10037 pts more Democratic in market
Ohio56 in 10082 in 10026 pts more Democratic in market
Georgia37 in 10062 in 10025 pts more Democratic in market
Wisconsin62 in 10081 in 10019 pts more Democratic in market

Biggest movessince Oct 25, 8:58 PM ET

  1. Nevada+1.6R+3.3
  2. Pennsylvania-1.0D+22.5
  3. New Hampshire-0.3R+14.4
  4. Michigan+0.2D+6.3

← Toward Republicans±5 pointsToward Democrats →

4 of 36 governor races moved at least 0.2 points · Rhode Island, Nebraska not compared on this board