Democrats are projected to hold more governorships.
The forecast projects that more people would live in states governed by Democratic governors.
26·24projected governorships nationwide
Possible outcomes
D 25 / R 25
13.4% of simulationsDemocratic governorships, out of 50
Middle 80% 21–29Median 25 · mean 25.3
Outcomes beyond this chart: 0.4% of simulations.
Changing of the Guard
Changing of the Guard — the 4 of 36 governorships the forecast flips this cycle, in the favorite’s color with an explicit flip marker. Hover for the forecast.
Who governs the population?
Area = population · color = chance of party control · all 50 states, largest first.
- 2026 election
- Yes
- Governor today
- Democratic
- Forecast
- D 99.1% · R 0.9%
- Expected population
- D 39.0M · R 0.4M
U.S. Census Bureau · NST-EST2025-ALLDATA. Vintage 2025 resident population estimates · July 1, 2025. Resident population across the 50 states: 341,091,212. Probabilities cover 36/36 election states; 14/14 states are not voting.
The modeled races · closest first
What if the national environment moved?
Where We Disagree With the Markets
Democratic win chance · forecast vs. Polymarket. Markets never feed the forecast. Quotes: Sep 11, 2026.
Biggest movessince Sep 10 → Sep 11
- Kansas-4.2R+7.1
- Iowa+1.6D+5.1
- Connecticut-1.0D+19.4
← toward Republicans±5 pointstoward Democrats →
3 of 36 Governors races moved