Alaska · Governor
Open this race on The Map ↗Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins has a 87.6% chance of winning after ranked-choice transfers. No final-round margin is published.
Show all others (1)
high / low: vote share (%) in the middle 80 in 100 simulations · shares are first-choice votes; winning chances include ranked-choice transfers, not a published final-round margin
About this field
Dunleavy is term-limited. The August 18 nonpartisan top-four primary has been held: on the state's unofficial returns Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (21.7%) and Tom Begich (20.1%) finished first and second, alongside Bernadette Wilson (10.5%) and Dave Bronson (8.4%), with the twelve-candidate Republican field splitting its vote. Begich withdrew on August 29. Under Alaska Statute 15.25.100(f) a withdrawal more than 64 days before the general advances the next-highest vote total, so Treg Taylor (7.3%) takes the fourth place on the ballot. Results are not yet certified, and November is decided by ranked-choice voting among the four.
Forecast share averages the simulated vote. Win chance counts how often a candidate wins. A wider range of outcomes can give a candidate a higher win chance despite a lower average share.
The polls
Ledger weighted average EVENUsed by the forecast: 1 poll (60-day half-life) · measured D+2.0 · after the fitted poll-error shift R+0.51 recorded poll · 1 eligible for the aggregate · 1 with positive weight
| Fieldwork | Added | Pollster | Result | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| from 2026-06-30 | Alaska Survey Research ↗ | D+2.0D 51% · R 49% | 1,528 LV |
How the candidate lead was built
Follow each contribution to the margin. Wider ribbons mean more percentage points. Tap an input for its calculation and source.
The signed totals combine at the forecast. Displayed values are rounded. This is the model coordinate before ranked-choice transfers.
Winning chances include ranked-choice transfers. No final-round margin is published.
The two-party D-versus-R coordinate, step by step
The walk above decomposes the published candidate lead. The model also carries a latent Democrat-minus-Republican coordinate, which is the quantity chamber seat and control arithmetic runs on. It is shown here at the same steps, as a secondary reading — it is not this race’s published forecast margin.
| After this step | D−R coordinate |
|---|---|
| Fundamentals | R+6.5 |
| National environment | R+5.4 |
| Campaign finance | R+5.4 |
| This race’s polls | R+1.7 |
| Expert ratings | R+1.7 |
| Election rules & guards | R+1.7 |
| Historical calibration | R+1.2 |
| The candidate field | R+1.2 |
All calculations & sources
The candidate field +26.095 points
What the field itself contributes: the third principals on the ballot and the election rule, which a two-party coordinate has nowhere to put.
This race’s polls +2.728 points
What this race’s admitted polls move the leader-versus-runner-up gap by.
National environment +0.837 points
How much of the national climate reaches this race’s leader-versus-runner-up gap.
Historical calibration +0.371 points
The calibration term fitted on past cycles, carried onto this gap.
Fundamentals −4.789 points
What the fitted structural model contributes to the gap between the leader and the runner-up, before any of this cycle’s evidence.
These are the fitted model’s named contributions to the partisan coordinate, before the candidate-field calculation.
| Named factor | Contribution |
|---|---|
| FundamentalsThe admitted fitted baseline. Its surviving variables differ by office; the source detail above identifies those used for this race. | −6.54 |
| This race's pollsAdmitted head-to-head polls of this race, recency- and quality-weighted. | +3.72 |
| National environmentThe national environment’s contribution to the prior. Polling can attenuate its influence; this value is not the national polling margin. | +1.14 |
| Historical calibrationThe House lane's calibration against certified past cycles. | +0.51 |
| Other factors | 0.00 |
Race context
- Forecast votes cast
- 259,668
- Forecast turnout
- 47.8% of the voting-eligible population
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+13.7
Statewide, 48.4% of the voting-eligible population is projected to cast a ballot; the lower figure above is the share projected to vote in this race.
Population profile Select a measure for its source and denominator
U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 American Community Survey 5-year estimates ↗
Coverage
3 stories · 3 quotes
- Missed the Alaska gubernatorial candidates' debate at the Kodiak fisheries forum? You can watch via the link here.
See the list of upcoming candidate debates this election season, plus we've updated with the links to past debates👇
alaskabeacon.com/2026/09/09/w... ↗
Alaska Beacon · Official · 2d ago
curated state newsroom · recent Bluesky post · named-race match - Alaska gubernatorial candidates participate in first forum since a post-primary ballot shuffle, writes @yjrosen.bsky.social for the @alaskabeacon.com alaskabeacon.com/2026/09/09/a... ↗
Alaska Beacon · Official · 3d ago
curated state newsroom · recent Bluesky post · named-race match · election-topic match - Tonight at 5:30 p.m. at the Petroleum Club in Anchorage, three of Alaska's governor candidates will meet for a debate. Dave Bronson, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and Treg Taylor are all set to appear. It's also being streamed (and is already live) vimeo.com/event/615792... #akleg ↗
James Brooks Cascade · Commentary · 4d ago
curated political commentary · recent Bluesky post · named-race match - Alaska Lt. Gov. Dahlstrom reverses herself, puts Treg Taylor back in governor’s race ↗
KTOO · Sep 8
- Alaska legislator asks state to prosecute candidate for Lt. Gov. and former attorney general ↗
KTOO · Sep 7
- Coverage from KTOO ↗
KTOO · Aug 28