Alaska · Governor

The polling average above is the polls’ own: every poll in this race’s poll average, newer and larger polls counting for more and each pollster once, with nothing adjusted. What the forecast does with the polls is a separate matter, set out here.

The forecast reads every poll as one party’s candidates against the other’s, and that, with past results and the national mood, sets the balance between the two parties. From the 6 polls above that named every candidate it also takes the share of Dave Bronson and Treg Taylor: Dave Bronson 16.4% and Treg Taylor 9.4%, a weighted average. Newer and larger polls count for more.

Some of these polls were taken before this ballot was settled on 2026-08-18, so the other candidates’ numbers are not taken from them. The Democratic and Republican totals come from the forecast’s Democrat-versus-Republican estimate, which is built from past results, the national mood and this race’s poll average. Each candidate named here takes their share out of their own party’s total, or out of both if they belong to neither party. The published result is Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 48.3%, Bernadette Wilson 25.9%, Dave Bronson 16.3% and Treg Taylor 9.4%, a lead of 22.3 points for Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins. This race is decided by ranked-choice voting: these shares are first choices, and each candidate’s chance of winning comes from simulating the ranked count.

Poll average, each party’s candidates added together Republicans combined +1.3Each poll here is read as party totals: every Democrat on the ballot added together against every Republican added together. It is not the gap between the two leading candidates.In a ranked-choice count a party total is not the final round: when a candidate is eliminated, not all of their ballots go to their party’s other candidates.A poll’s weight halves every 60 days and grows with its sample. Each pollster counts once, at its best release. Every poll counts at its published margin, sponsored or not.In governor races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at R+1.1. It then applies a fitted correction of 2.5 points toward Republicans for governor races, measured from past polling error, before blending it with its other evidence.10 recorded polls · 8 in the poll average

Weighted average, as the forecast took it: 16.4Dave Bronson9.4Treg Taylor · 6 polls

Each poll’s figures are shares of the people who picked a candidate. Undecided voters are left out, so the numbers run a little higher than the poll’s own headline figures, and a candidate who has since left the race is not counted.