Race polling · GOV-AK

Alaska Governor polls 2026

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) vs Bernadette Wilson (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.

How the forecast reads these polls

the same figures as the race page

Every poll feeds the forecast’s Democrat-versus-Republican estimate, which sets the balance between the parties. From the 6 polls below that named every candidate it also takes the share of Dave Bronson and Treg Taylor: Dave Bronson 16.4% and Treg Taylor 9.4%, a weighted average.

Poll average, each party’s candidates added togetherR+1.3all Democrats against all Republicans · not the gap between the two leaders

Polls1818 on file · 8 in the poll average · 2 read for candidate shares · 8 not counted

Latest field dateOct 25Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-10-25 (3 days old)

EditionOct 28the poll average and its weights as of this edition

The polls and the poll average

drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its poll

Oct 28, 2026R+1.3today's poll average of all Democrats against all Republicans of 8 polls

poll in the average · area is its weight
trend through the counted polls · ends on today's poll average of all Democrats against all Republicans

The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's poll average of all Democrats against all Republicans.

Data table

The poll average as the edition published it for each stretch of days, and the trend line drawn over the same days.
Days	Average as it stood	Trend line
Oct 28, 2026	R+1.3	R+1.3
Oct 25–Oct 27, 2026	R+1.3	R+1.3
Oct 18–Oct 24, 2026	R+1.6	R+1.5 to R+1.3
Oct 16–Oct 17, 2026	R+2.1	R+1.5
Oct 3–Oct 15, 2026	R+1.9	R+1.9 to R+1.6
Oct 1–Oct 2, 2026	R+1.0	R+1.8 to R+1.9
Sep 27–Sep 30, 2026	D+0.6	R+1.4 to R+1.8
Sep 17–Sep 26, 2026	R+0.5	R+0.2 to R+1.2
Sep 11–Sep 16, 2026	R+1.0	R+0.6 to R+0.3

In governor races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at R+1.1.

Every poll on file · 18

newest added first

8 in the poll average · 2 read for candidate shares only (6 in all, each marked “every candidate named”; the others are also in the poll average) · 8 shown, not counted

Pollster	Fielded	Sample	Result	Added	Weight	Source
●Alaska Survey ResearchGeneral · Governor	Oct 25, 2026	1,068 LV	D+6.8Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 53.4Bernadette Wilson 46.6	Oct 272d ago	0.86	Pollster post
●Data for ProgressGeneral	Oct 16, 2026 from Oct 8	694 LV	Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 46Bernadette Wilson 28Dave Bronson 12Treg Taylor 9Don't know 5every candidate namedJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 48.4Bernadette Wilson 29.5Dave Bronson 12.6Treg Taylor 9.5	Oct 217d ago	0.62	Poll release
●Alaska Survey ResearchGeneral · Governor	Oct 18, 2026	1,568 LV	D+10.0Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 55Bernadette Wilson 45	Oct 20	0.89	Pollster post
●The New York Times/Siena CollegeGeneral	Oct 1, 2026 from Sep 24	504 LV	Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 40.24Bernadette Wilson 20.07Dave Bronson 14.87Don't know 13.25Treg Taylor 11.2Someone else 0.37every candidate namedJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 46.6Bernadette Wilson 23.2Dave Bronson 17.2Treg Taylor 13.0	Oct 15	0.45	News coverage
●CygnalGeneral · Governor · REP sponsor · REP partisan	Sep 27, 2026	502 LV	Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 44Bernadette Wilson 24Treg Taylor 9David Bronson 8	Oct 15	0.43	Poll document
●Fabrizio Ward/Impact ResearchGeneral · for AARP	Sep 11, 2026 from Sep 8	800 LV	Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 40Bernadette Wilson 20Don't know 18Dave Bronson 14Treg Taylor 7every candidate namedJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 49.4Bernadette Wilson 24.7Dave Bronson 17.3Treg Taylor 8.6	Oct 15	0.45	Poll release
●Alaska Survey ResearchGeneral	Oct 3, 2026	1,512 LV	R+4.0Bernadette Wilson + Dave Bronson + Treg Taylor 52Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 48	Oct 7	0.75	Pollster post
●co/efficientGeneral	Sep 17, 2026 from Sep 14	799 LV	Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 43Bernadette Wilson 20Dave Bronson 17Don't know 14Treg Taylor 6every candidate namedJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 50.0Bernadette Wilson 23.3Dave Bronson 19.8Treg Taylor 7.0	Sep 17	0.48	Poll release
Change ResearchGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan	Jul 19, 2026	604 LV	Don't know 27Tom Begich 17Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 15Bernadette Wilson 14Bill Walker 7Dave Bronson 6Someone else 6Adam Crum 4Click Bishop 4	Jul 28	all-candidate ballot	Poll document
Alaska Survey ResearchGeneral · Governor	Apr 19, 2026	1,923 LV	Tom Begich 41Bernadette Wilson 22Click Bishop 19Dave Bronson 19+4 other releases	Jul 20	all-candidate ballot	Pollster post
Alaska Survey ResearchGeneral	Jul 1, 2026	— LV	Tom Begich 19.7Bernadette Wilson 14.6Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 12.2Someone else 12.1Dave Bronson 10.9Bill Walker 9.4Click Bishop 9.3Adam Crum 7Shelley Hughes 4.8	Jul 9	all-candidate ballot	Pollster post
Public Policy PollingGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan	Jun 25, 2026	529 LV	Don't know 27Tom Begich 16Dave Bronson 13Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 13Bernadette Wilson 12Click Bishop 10Bill Walker 8Matt Claman 3	Jul 2	all-candidate ballot	Poll document

Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.

Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.