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Pollster performance

Historical polls, measured against certified results.

Pollsters
242
Eligible polls
9,348
Coverage
1998–2025

MAE is the average miss in points. Bias shows D/R overstatement; a dash means the history includes other contest types. Select a pollster for its record.

20 of 242 matching

Pollster performance table

Coverage
6984.21D+0.01221998–2024Oct 21, 1998 – Oct 26, 2024
6394.56R+1.45182000–2024Oct 18, 2000 – Nov 1, 2024
4474.60D+1.01142004–2025Oct 12, 2004 – Oct 28, 2025
3955.18R+0.67131998–2014Oct 13, 1998 – Oct 30, 2014
3894.53R+0.56191998–2020Oct 14, 1998 – Oct 20, 2020
3334.15D+0.99112008–2022Oct 17, 2008 – Oct 20, 2022
2556.48D+4.9342016–2020Oct 20, 2016 – Nov 1, 2020
2485.16D+1.4392000–2010Oct 17, 2000 – Jan 16, 2010
2304.19D+0.37112013–2025Jun 20, 2013 – Oct 31, 2025
1825.05R+1.1181998–2020Oct 20, 1998 – Nov 1, 2020
1724.48D+0.60201998–2025Oct 16, 1998 – Oct 28, 2025
1374.42D+0.47151998–2024Oct 27, 1998 – Oct 30, 2024
1264.57D+1.5272012–2020Oct 18, 2012 – Dec 30, 2020
1246.29R+5.0922010–2012Oct 13, 2010 – Nov 5, 2012
1165.93D+2.31132000–2022Nov 3, 2000 – Nov 4, 2022
1144.43D+0.09142004–2025Oct 12, 2004 – Nov 3, 2025
1134.04R+2.4492016–2025Oct 25, 2016 – Nov 2, 2025
1103.69R+2.0942004–2008Oct 13, 2004 – Nov 1, 2008
1064.21D+2.08132002–2024Oct 16, 2002 – Nov 3, 2024
1015.74D+3.0732017–2020May 22, 2017 – Nov 1, 2020

Current archive only. These identities have sourced current polls and no graded historical record: 1892 Polling (5) · 2040 Strategy Group (3) · A2 Insights (5) · Abacus Data (10) · Action Solutions (1) · Advantage, Inc. (4) · AlphaROC (8) · American Directions (1) · American Pulse Research & Polling (9) · American Research Institute (1) · AP-NORC (23) · Applecart (2) · Aspect Strategic (1) · Associated Press/NORC (1) · Atlas Intel (2) · Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center (20) · Beacon Insights (3) · Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research (60) · Bedrock Polling (6) · Bendixen & Amandi International (5) · Big Data Poll (67) · Blueprint Polling (7) · Bowling Green State University (1) · Bowling Green State University Democracy and Public Policy Research Network/YouGov (20) · Bowling Green State University/YouGov (1) · Bravo Group (6) · BSP Research (3) · Capital Strategic Partners (1) · Catalyst Research (1) · CBS/YouGov (1) · Center for Excellence in Polling (1) · Center for Strategic Politics (4) · Centerline Research & Strategy (6) · CHS & Associates (1) · Civiqs/Daily Kos (1) · CNN/SSRS (36) · Cole Hargrave (2) · Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates (6) · Concord Public Opinion Partners (8) · Cygnal/Beacon Research (2) · Data Targeting (1) · David J Wolfson (2) · DCCC Targeting Team (13) · Deep Root Analytics (1) · Echelon Insights/GBAO (2) · Elon University/YouGov (3) · Embold Research (8) · Emerson College/WPRI-TV (2) · Equis Research (1) · Expedition Strategies (7) · Fabrizio Ward (2) · Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research (17) · Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research (4) · Fairleigh Dickinson (2) · Financial Times/Focaldata (1) · FirstStrategic (1) · FirstStrategic Communications and Public Affairs (1) · Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research (2) · Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research (1) · Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research (1) · GBAO/Third Way (1) · Gonzales Research (1) · Grassroots Targeting (3) · GrayHouse (14) · GreatBlue Research (7) · Guidant Polling and Strategy (9) · Harris Poll/HarrisX (1) · HarrisX/Harris (4) · HarrisX/Harris Poll (21) · Hart Research Associates (26) · Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies (1) · Harvard Caps/HarrisX (1) · High Point University (13) · High Point University Survey Research Center (6) · High Point University Survey Research Center/YouGov (2) · HighGround (2) · HIT Strategies (1) · Hoffman Research Group (2) · Hunt Research (1) · Impact Research/BSP Research (1) · Impact Research/National Research (1) · Impact Research/National Research Inc. (7) · Inquire (2) · InsiderAdvantage/Trafalgar (1) · Ipsos/Reuters (1) · IVC Media (1) · J.L. Partners (41) · John Zogby Strategies (25) · Justice Research Fund (1) · KAConsulting LLC (1) · Kaplan Strategies (3) · Keating Research, Inc. (1) · Keystone Analytics (1) · KFF (3) · Kreate Strategies (4) · KSTP/SurveyUSA (2) · KTSP/SurveyUSA (1) · Lighthouse Research (4) · Listener Group/Political Matrix News (9) · Lord Ashcroft Polls (4) · MAD Global Strategy (2) · Manhattan Institute (6) · Marist University (57) · Mason-Dixon (3) · Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. (12) · McLaughlin & Associates (R) (3) · MDW (1) · MDW Communications (7) · Merlin Strategy (1) · Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov (5) · Middle Seat (4) · Miller Consulting Services (2) · Minnesota Private Business Council (1) · Moxie Strategies (1) · Napolitan News Service (1) · Napolitan News Service/RMG Research (1) · Napolitan News/RMG Research (1) · National Association of Independent Pollsters (1) · National Public Affairs (15) · National Republican Senatorial Committee (1) · National Victory Strategies (1) · Navigator Research (32) · Neighborhood Research and Media (2) · Neighborhood Research Corporation (2) · New River (1) · New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group (6) · New York Times/Siena (1) · NewsNation/Decision Desk HQ (4) · NextGen P (1) · NextGen Polling (1) · NextGenP (3) · Nexus Strategies/Strategic Partners Solutions (1) · Noble Predictive Insights (37) · NonDoc Media (1) · NPI/Franklin News (1) · NRSC (1) · OnMessage (4) · Opinion Diagnostics (7) · Overton Insights (4) · Pan Atlantic SMS Group (7) · Pantheon Insight/HarrisX (1) · Peak Insights (13) · Pennsylvania State University McCourtney Institute for Democracy/YouGov (2) · Pew Research (1) · Platform Communications (2) · Plymouth Union Public (1) · Polity Research Consulting (2) · Pollfinity (3) · Pollster not named (1) · Praecones Analytica (5) · PRRI (5) · Public Religion Research Institute (3) · Public Sentiment Institute (1) · Pulse Decision Science (11) · PureSpectrum (1) · Quantus Insights/TrendingPolitics (2) · Ragnar Research Partners (29) · RealClear Opinion Research (3) · ReconMR/Siena Research Institute (8) · Red Oak Strategic (1) · Remington (3) · Responsive Management (1) · Rosetta Stone (6) · Rosetta Stone Communications (3) · Rutgers-Eagleton (5) · Sacred Heart University/WFSB/CT Insider (1) · Saint Anselm (10) · Schoen Cooperman Research (7) · SEA Polling (3) · Siena University (21) · Slingshot Strategies (17) · Spry Strategies (1) · St. Anselm (25) · State Navigate (4) · Stealth Analytics (1) · Stetson University (3) · Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research (8) · StimSight Research (2) · Strategic National (3) · Stratus Intelligence (9) · Strength in Numbers/Verasight (1) · Survey 160 (12) · Talker Research (6) · Target Insyght (6) · TargetSmart (2) · Tavern Research (64) · Texas Public Opinion Research (1) · Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center (14) · The Alabama Poll (2) · The American Promise (3) · The Argument/Verasight (27) · The Bullfinch Group (56) · The Honest Poll (15) · The Public Sentiment Institute (27) · The Public Sentiment Institute/Virginia Project (1) · The Rainey Center (1) · The Tarrance Group (1) · The Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin/YouGov (2) · Torchlight Strategies (3) · Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage (8) · TrueDot (10) · TrueDot.ai (2) · Tulchin Research (22) · Tusk Strategies (1) · Tyson Group (1) · UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies (2) · UMass Amherst/YouGov (5) · UMBC Institute of Politics (1) · University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies (3) · University of California Berkeley Jack Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research/Verasight/TrueDot (1) · University of Georgia (6) · University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs (10) · University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs/Texas Southern University School of Public Affairs (18) · University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs/YouGov (1) · University of Houston/Texas Southern University (1) · University of Houston/YouGov (2) · University of Maryland Baltimore County (1) · University of Maryland Baltimore County Institute of Politics (1) · University of Massachusetts Department of Political Science/YouGov (3) · University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov (12) · University of North Florida (20) · University of Southern California/California State University Long Beach Center for Urban Politics and Policy/Cal Poly Pomona (6) · Unknown (Reported by NOTUS) (1) · Upswing Research (7) · URI/YouGov (1) · USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab (1) · Verasight (57) · Verasight/Morris Predictive Insights (1) · Victory Insights (15) · VictoryPhones (2) · VoteHub/Verasight (2) · VoteNexus (5) · Voter Sciences (1) · Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos (1) · Washington Post/George Mason University (4) · Washington Post/Ipsos (1) · Wave Polling and Research/Verasight (1) · Wesleyan University Survey Lab/YouGov (1) · Workbench Strategy (4) · Yahoo News/YouGov (2) · Yale University Institution for Social and Policy Studies (5) · yes. every kid. (6) · yes. every kid. foundation. (5) · YouGov - CBS News (1) · YouGov Blue (3) · Z to A Research (12) · Zenith Research (11)

Archive source date 2026-10-24. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

242 of 242 histories verified. These descriptive results do not create a second forecast weight.

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

Backtest rule · Backtests must recompute a pollster rating excluding the scored cycle.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.