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Pollster performance

Historical polls, measured against certified results.

Pollsters
242
Eligible polls
9,348
Coverage
19982025

MAE is the average miss in points. Bias shows D/R overstatement; a dash means the history includes other contest types. Select a pollster for its record.

20 of 242 matching

Pollster performance table

Coverage
6984.21D+0.01221998–2024Oct 21, 1998 – Oct 26, 2024
6394.56R+1.45182000–2024Oct 18, 2000 – Nov 1, 2024
4474.60D+1.01142004–2025Oct 12, 2004 – Oct 28, 2025
3955.18R+0.67131998–2014Oct 13, 1998 – Oct 30, 2014
3894.53R+0.56191998–2020Oct 14, 1998 – Oct 20, 2020
3334.15D+0.99112008–2022Oct 17, 2008 – Oct 20, 2022
2556.48D+4.9342016–2020Oct 20, 2016 – Nov 1, 2020
2485.16D+1.4392000–2010Oct 17, 2000 – Jan 16, 2010
2304.19D+0.37112013–2025Jun 20, 2013 – Oct 31, 2025
1825.05R+1.1181998–2020Oct 20, 1998 – Nov 1, 2020
1724.48D+0.60201998–2025Oct 16, 1998 – Oct 28, 2025
1374.42D+0.47151998–2024Oct 27, 1998 – Oct 30, 2024
1264.57D+1.5272012–2020Oct 18, 2012 – Dec 30, 2020
1246.29R+5.0922010–2012Oct 13, 2010 – Nov 5, 2012
1165.93D+2.31132000–2022Nov 3, 2000 – Nov 4, 2022
1144.43D+0.09142004–2025Oct 12, 2004 – Nov 3, 2025
1134.04R+2.4492016–2025Oct 25, 2016 – Nov 2, 2025
1103.69R+2.0942004–2008Oct 13, 2004 – Nov 1, 2008
1064.21D+2.08132002–2024Oct 16, 2002 – Nov 3, 2024
1015.74D+3.0732017–2020May 22, 2017 – Nov 1, 2020

Current archive only. These identities have sourced current polls and no graded historical record: ? (1) · 1892 Polling (6) · 2040 Strategy Group (3) · A2 Insights (6) · Abacus Data (10) · Action Solutions (1) · Advantage, Inc. (4) · AlphaROC (6) · American Directions (1) · American Pulse Research & Polling (6) · AP-NORC (18) · Applecart (3) · Associated Press/NORC (1) · Atlas Intel (2) · Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center (17) · Beacon Insights (5) · Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research (36) · Bedrock Polling (7) · Bendixen & Amandi International (4) · Big Data Poll (46) · Blueprint Polling (9) · Bowling Green State University (1) · Bowling Green State University Democracy and Public Policy Research Network/YouGov (17) · Bowling Green State University/YouGov (7) · Bravo Group (7) · BSP Research (2) · Capital Strategic Partners (1) · Catalyst Research (1) · CBS/YouGov (1) · Center for Excellence in Polling (1) · Center for Strategic Politics (3) · CHS & Associates (1) · Civiqs/Daily Kos (1) · CNN/SSRS (24) · Cole Hargrave (2) · Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates (6) · Concord Public Opinion Partners (8) · Data Targeting (2) · David J Wolfson (1) · DCCC Targeting Team (2) · Deep Root Analytics (1) · Echelon Insights/GBAO (2) · Echelon Insights/Tusk Strategies (1) · Elon University/YouGov (2) · Embold Research (4) · Emerson College/WPRI-TV (2) · Expedition Strategies (4) · Fabrizio Ward (2) · Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research (11) · Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research (9) · Fairleigh Dickinson (2) · Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research (2) · Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research (1) · GBAO/Third Way (1) · Gonzales Research (1) · Grassroots Targeting (1) · Grayhouse (13) · GreatBlue Research (5) · Guidant Polling and Strategy (4) · Harris Poll/HarrisX (2) · HarrisX/Harris (6) · HarrisX/Harris Poll (24) · Hart Research Associates (23) · Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies (1) · Harvard Caps/HarrisX (1) · High Point University (12) · High Point University Survey Research Center (5) · High Point University Survey Research Center/YouGov (2) · HighGround (2) · HIT Strategies (1) · Hoffman Research Group (2) · Hunt Research (1) · Impact Research/National Research (2) · Impact Research/National Research Inc. (6) · Inquire (2) · InsiderAdvantage/Trafalgar (1) · Ipsos/Reuters (1) · J.L. Partners (45) · John Zogby Strategies (23) · Justice Research Fund (1) · KAConsulting LLC (1) · Kaplan Strategies (7) · Keating Research, Inc. (1) · Keystone Analytics (1) · KFF (2) · Kreate Strategies (7) · KSTP/SurveyUSA (2) · KTSP/SurveyUSA (1) · Listener Group/Political Matrix News (9) · Lord Ashcroft Polls (4) · MAD Global Strategy (4) · Manhattan Institute (5) · Marist University (26) · Marquette University (10) · Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. (7) · McLaughlin & Associates (R)<ref name= (3) · MDW Communications (10) · Merlin Strategy (1) · Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov (5) · Middle Seat (4) · Minnesota Private Business Council (1) · Napolitan News Service (1) · Napolitan News Service/RMG Research (1) · National Association of Independent Pollsters (1) · National Public Affairs (1) · National Republican Senatorial Committee (1) · National Victory Strategies (1) · Navigator Research (29) · Navigator Research/Global Strategy Group (1) · Neighborhood Research and Media (1) · NewsNation (4) · NewsNation/Decision Desk HQ (4) · NextGen P (1) · NextGen Polling (1) · NextGenP (3) · Nexus Strategies/Strategic Partners Solutions (1) · Noble Predictive Insights (41) · NonDoc Media (1) · NPI/Franklin News (1) · NRSC (1) · OnMessage (5) · Opinion Diagnostics (4) · Overton Insights (4) · Overton Insights/Targoz Market Research (1) · Pan Atlantic SMS Group (12) · Pantheon Insight/HarrisX (1) · Peak Insights (10) · Pennsylvania State University McCourtney Institute for Democracy/YouGov (2) · Pew Research (1) · Platform Communications (4) · Plymouth Union Public (1) · Polity Research Consulting (2) · Pollfinity (1) · Praecones Analytica (6) · PRRI (3) · Public Religion Research Institute (3) · Public Sentiment Institute (1) · Pulse Decision Science (11) · PureSpectrum (1) · Quantus Insights/TrendingPolitics (2) · Ragnar Research Partners (32) · RealClear Opinion Research (3) · ReconMR/Siena University (4) · Red Oak Strategic (2) · Remington (1) · Responsive Management (1) · Rosetta Stone (9) · Rosetta Stone Communications (3) · Rutgers-Eagleton (2) · Sacred Heart University/WFSB/CT Insider (1) · Saint Anselm (8) · Schoen Cooperman Research (7) · SEA Polling (2) · Siena University (26) · Slingshot Strategies (21) · St. Anselm (19) · State Navigate (5) · Stealth Analytics (2) · Stetson University (4) · Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research (4) · StimSight Research (1) · Strategic National (3) · Stratus Intelligence (7) · Survey 160 (12) · Talker Research (6) · Target Insyght (7) · Tavern Research (63) · Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas/YouGov (2) · Texas Public Opinion Research (2) · Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center (11) · The American Promise (3) · The Argument/Verasight (23) · The Bullfinch Group (57) · The Honest Poll (6) · The Public Sentiment Institute (29) · The Public Sentiment Institute/Virginia Project (1) · The Rainey Center (1) · The Tarrance Group (1) · The Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin/YouGov (5) · Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage (8) · TrueDot (2) · TrueDot.ai (2) · Tulchin Research (20) · Tusk Strategies (1) · Tyson Group (1) · UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies (1) · UMass Amherst/YouGov (10) · University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies (2) · University of Georgia (4) · University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs (7) · University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs/Texas Southern University School of Public Affairs (18) · University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs/YouGov (2) · University of Houston/Texas Southern University (2) · University of Houston/YouGov (3) · University of Maryland Baltimore County (1) · University of Massachusetts Department of Political Science/YouGov (5) · University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov (6) · University of North Florida (22) · University of Southern California/California State University Long Beach Center for Urban Politics and Policy/Cal Poly Pomona (6) · Unknown (Reported by NOTUS) (1) · Upswing Research (7) · URI/YouGov (1) · Verasight (43) · Verasight/Morris Predictive Insights (1) · Victory Insights (17) · VictoryPhones (2) · Voter Sciences (1) · Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos (3) · Washington Post/George Mason University (4) · Washington Post/Ipsos (1) · Wave Polling and Research/Verasight (1) · Wedgewood Polls (25) · Workbench Strategy (3) · Yahoo News/YouGov (2) · Yale University Institution for Social and Policy Studies (5) · yes. every kid. (6) · yes. every kid. foundation. (5) · YouGov Blue (3) · Z to A Research (8) · Zenith Research (16)

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

242 of 242 histories verified. These descriptive results do not create a second forecast weight.

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

Backtest rule · Backtests must recompute a pollster rating excluding the scored cycle.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.