Market comparison · never a forecast input
Where we disagree with the markets.
493 of 506 elections have a like-for-like Democratic–Republican model probability and public market price. They are ordered by disagreement; markets remain comparison-only.
SenateD 44% · R 56%D 52% · R 48%Polymarket ↗ · September 7, 2026+8 ptsMarket is 8 points more Democratic
HouseD 74% · R 26%D 88% · R 12%Polymarket ↗ · September 7, 2026+14 ptsMarket is 14 points more Democratic
Model against market
Quotes as of Sep 7, 2026Every priced race
20 of 493 matching · 493 total comparable race markets · minimum volume $1K · 493/506 elections covered.
| Quote & source | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IA-03U.S. House | 37 in 100 | 78 in 100 | +41 pts | $9.5K | Polymarket ↗ · Current |
| NC-11U.S. House | 34 in 100 | 65 in 100 | +31 pts | $16K | Polymarket ↗ · Current |
| VA-02U.S. House | 53 in 100 | 83 in 100 | +30 pts | $41K | Polymarket ↗ · Current |
| OH-09U.S. House | 43 in 100 | 71 in 100 | +28 pts | $30K | Polymarket ↗ · Current |
| CO-04U.S. House | 13 in 100 | 37 in 100 | +24 pts | $12K | Polymarket ↗ · Current |
| WisconsinGovernor | 59 in 100 | 83 in 100 | +24 pts | $293K | Polymarket ↗ · Current |
| NevadaGovernor | 17 in 100 | 40 in 100 | +23 pts | $24K | Polymarket ↗ · Current |
| AZ-06U.S. House | 61 in 100 | 83 in 100 | +22 pts | $12K | Polymarket ↗ · Current |
| AR-02U.S. House | 35 in 100 | 14 in 100 | −21 pts | $12K | Polymarket ↗ · Current |
| FL-14U.S. House | 84 in 100 | 63 in 100 | −21 pts | $35K | Polymarket ↗ · Current |
| MI-10U.S. House | 42 in 100 | 63 in 100 | +21 pts | $7.4K | Polymarket ↗ · Current |
| TX-35U.S. House | 34 in 100 | 55 in 100 | +21 pts | $14K | Polymarket ↗ · Current |
| CA-22U.S. House | 67 in 100 | 87 in 100 | +20 pts | $13K | Polymarket ↗ · Current |
| MO-05U.S. House | 99 in 100 | 79 in 100 | −20 pts | $20K | Polymarket ↗ · Current |
| PA-01U.S. House | 24 in 100 | 44 in 100 | +20 pts | $7.1K | Polymarket ↗ · Current |
| PA-08U.S. House | 45 in 100 | 65 in 100 | +20 pts | $7.7K | Polymarket ↗ · Current |
| WA-03U.S. House | 68 in 100 | 88 in 100 | +20 pts | $34K | Polymarket ↗ · Current |
| TX-32U.S. House | 2 in 100 | 21 in 100 | +19 pts | $30K | Polymarket ↗ · Current |
| PA-07U.S. House | 62 in 100 | 80 in 100 | +18 pts | $29K | Polymarket ↗ · Current |
| WI-03U.S. House | 55 in 100 | 73 in 100 | +18 pts | $6.4K | Polymarket ↗ · Current |
Ballots without a D–R comparison · 13 of 506
| Race | Office | Why it is excluded |
|---|---|---|
| CA-04 | U.S. House | The current field is not exactly one Democrat and one Republican. Its candidate probabilities cannot be replaced with the latent D/R coordinate for a two-party comparison. |
| CA-06 | U.S. House | The current field is not exactly one Democrat and one Republican. Its candidate probabilities cannot be replaced with the latent D/R coordinate for a two-party comparison. |
| CA-07 | U.S. House | The current field is not exactly one Democrat and one Republican. Its candidate probabilities cannot be replaced with the latent D/R coordinate for a two-party comparison. |
| CA-11 | U.S. House | The current field is not exactly one Democrat and one Republican. Its candidate probabilities cannot be replaced with the latent D/R coordinate for a two-party comparison. |
| CA-12 | U.S. House | The current field is not exactly one Democrat and one Republican. Its candidate probabilities cannot be replaced with the latent D/R coordinate for a two-party comparison. |
| CA-14 | U.S. House | The current field is not exactly one Democrat and one Republican. Its candidate probabilities cannot be replaced with the latent D/R coordinate for a two-party comparison. |
| CA-29 | U.S. House | The current field is not exactly one Democrat and one Republican. Its candidate probabilities cannot be replaced with the latent D/R coordinate for a two-party comparison. |
| CA-34 | U.S. House | The current field is not exactly one Democrat and one Republican. Its candidate probabilities cannot be replaced with the latent D/R coordinate for a two-party comparison. |
| CA-37 | U.S. House | The current field is not exactly one Democrat and one Republican. Its candidate probabilities cannot be replaced with the latent D/R coordinate for a two-party comparison. |
| CA-40 | U.S. House | The current field is not exactly one Democrat and one Republican. Its candidate probabilities cannot be replaced with the latent D/R coordinate for a two-party comparison. |
| Idaho | U.S. Senate | The current field is not exactly one Democrat and one Republican. Its candidate probabilities cannot be replaced with the latent D/R coordinate for a two-party comparison. |
| Nebraska | U.S. Senate | The current field is not exactly one Democrat and one Republican. Its candidate probabilities cannot be replaced with the latent D/R coordinate for a two-party comparison. |
| South Dakota | U.S. Senate | The current field is not exactly one Democrat and one Republican. Its candidate probabilities cannot be replaced with the latent D/R coordinate for a two-party comparison. |
These races stay in the forecast and in chamber arithmetic. They are omitted only from this comparison because a latent D/R model coordinate is not the chance that the named current field wins.
Markets without a two-party price · 2
| Race | Market volume | Market and quote state |
|---|---|---|
| Nebraskasenate | $224.7K | Polymarket · non-binary candidate book ↗Current |
| CA-40house | $2.6K | Polymarket · same-party candidate book ↗Current |
These events exist, but either do not clear the public volume rule or cannot honestly become a two-party Democratic price. We retain the link, volume and state instead of calling a matcher failure a missing market.