Market comparison · never a forecast input
Where we disagree with the markets.
492 of 506 elections have a like-for-like Democratic–Republican model probability and public market price. They are ordered by disagreement; markets remain comparison-only.
SenateD 55% · R 45%D 68% · R 32%Polymarket ↗ · Oct 23, 2026+13 ptsMarket is 13 points more Democratic
Model against market
Quotes as of Oct 23, 2026Every priced race
20 of 492 matching · 492 total comparable race markets · minimum volume $1K · 492/506 elections covered.
| Quote & source | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NevadaGovernor | 21 in 100 | 68 in 100 | +47 pts | $687K | Polymarket ↗ · Current |
| IA-03U.S. House | 44 in 100 | 85 in 100 | +41 pts | $16K | Polymarket ↗ · Current |
| OH-09U.S. House | 40 in 100 | 79 in 100 | +39 pts | $48K | Polymarket ↗ · Current |
| OregonGovernor | 47 in 100 | 84 in 100 | +37 pts | $105K | Polymarket ↗ · Current |
| FL-25U.S. House | 50 in 100 | 85 in 100 | +35 pts | $43K | Polymarket ↗ · Current |
| WA-03U.S. House | 60 in 100 | 92 in 100 | +32 pts | $61K | Polymarket ↗ · Current |
| AZ-06U.S. House | 64 in 100 | 90 in 100 | +26 pts | $32K | Polymarket ↗ · Current |
| MI-04U.S. House | 38 in 100 | 64 in 100 | +26 pts | $25K | Polymarket ↗ · Current |
| OhioGovernor | 57 in 100 | 82 in 100 | +25 pts | $871K | Polymarket ↗ · Current |
| GeorgiaGovernor | 37 in 100 | 61 in 100 | +24 pts | $234K | Polymarket ↗ · Current |
| MI-10U.S. House | 47 in 100 | 71 in 100 | +24 pts | $11K | Polymarket ↗ · Current |
| VA-02U.S. House | 68 in 100 | 92 in 100 | +24 pts | $63K | Polymarket ↗ · Current |
| AlaskaU.S. Senate | 51 in 100 | 74 in 100 | +23 pts | $2M | Polymarket ↗ · Current |
| MinnesotaU.S. Senate | 66 in 100 | 87 in 100 | +21 pts | $374K | Polymarket ↗ · Current |
| WI-03U.S. House | 56 in 100 | 77 in 100 | +21 pts | $11K | Polymarket ↗ · Current |
| CA-22U.S. House | 71 in 100 | 91 in 100 | +20 pts | $32K | Polymarket ↗ · Current |
| IA-02U.S. House | 53 in 100 | 73 in 100 | +20 pts | $60K | Polymarket ↗ · Current |
| TX-35U.S. House | 47 in 100 | 66 in 100 | +19 pts | $90K | Polymarket ↗ · Current |
| WisconsinGovernor | 62 in 100 | 81 in 100 | +19 pts | $799K | Polymarket ↗ · Current |
| VA-05U.S. House | 18 in 100 | 36 in 100 | +18 pts | $248K | Polymarket ↗ · Current |
Ballots without a D–R comparison · 13 of 506
| Race | Office | Why it is excluded |
|---|---|---|
| CA-04 | U.S. House | The current field is not exactly one Democrat and one Republican. Its candidate probabilities cannot be replaced with the latent D/R coordinate for a two-party comparison. |
| CA-06 | U.S. House | The current field is not exactly one Democrat and one Republican. Its candidate probabilities cannot be replaced with the latent D/R coordinate for a two-party comparison. |
| CA-07 | U.S. House | The current field is not exactly one Democrat and one Republican. Its candidate probabilities cannot be replaced with the latent D/R coordinate for a two-party comparison. |
| CA-11 | U.S. House | The current field is not exactly one Democrat and one Republican. Its candidate probabilities cannot be replaced with the latent D/R coordinate for a two-party comparison. |
| CA-12 | U.S. House | The current field is not exactly one Democrat and one Republican. Its candidate probabilities cannot be replaced with the latent D/R coordinate for a two-party comparison. |
| CA-14 | U.S. House | The current field is not exactly one Democrat and one Republican. Its candidate probabilities cannot be replaced with the latent D/R coordinate for a two-party comparison. |
| CA-29 | U.S. House | The current field is not exactly one Democrat and one Republican. Its candidate probabilities cannot be replaced with the latent D/R coordinate for a two-party comparison. |
| CA-34 | U.S. House | The current field is not exactly one Democrat and one Republican. Its candidate probabilities cannot be replaced with the latent D/R coordinate for a two-party comparison. |
| CA-37 | U.S. House | The current field is not exactly one Democrat and one Republican. Its candidate probabilities cannot be replaced with the latent D/R coordinate for a two-party comparison. |
| CA-40 | U.S. House | The current field is not exactly one Democrat and one Republican. Its candidate probabilities cannot be replaced with the latent D/R coordinate for a two-party comparison. |
| Idaho | U.S. Senate | The current field is not exactly one Democrat and one Republican. Its candidate probabilities cannot be replaced with the latent D/R coordinate for a two-party comparison. |
| Nebraska | U.S. Senate | The current field is not exactly one Democrat and one Republican. Its candidate probabilities cannot be replaced with the latent D/R coordinate for a two-party comparison. |
| South Dakota | U.S. Senate | The current field is not exactly one Democrat and one Republican. Its candidate probabilities cannot be replaced with the latent D/R coordinate for a two-party comparison. |
These races stay in the forecast and in chamber arithmetic. They are omitted only from this comparison because a latent D/R model coordinate is not the chance that the named current field wins.
Markets without a two-party price · 3
| Race | Market volume | Market and quote state |
|---|---|---|
| Nebraskasenate | $934.7K | Polymarket · non-binary candidate book ↗Current |
| AK-ALhouse | $64.1K | Polymarket · event ↗Current |
| CA-40house | $18.2K | Polymarket · same-party candidate book ↗Current |
These events exist, but either do not clear the public volume rule or cannot honestly become a two-party Democratic price. We retain the link, volume and state instead of calling a matcher failure a missing market.