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FORECAST51 DAYS OUT
← House3 November 2026 · 51 days out

CA-12 · U.S. House

Open this race on The Map ↗

Lateefah Simon is heavily favored to win. Projected candidate margin: Lateefah Simon over Jamie Joyce by 68.7 points. No two-party forecast is published for this race: November's certified top-two field is Lateefah Simon and Jamie Joyce, so a Democrat-versus-Republican margin would not describe this contest.

Lateefah Simon (D)>99 in 10099.8%84.4high 93.7 · low 73.9
Jamie Joyce (D)<1 in 1000.2%15.6high 26.1 · low 6.3

high / low: vote share (%) in the middle 80 in 100 simulations

Democratic-held seat

Recent elections

ElectionResultVotes cast
2024 · U.S. House ↗Not a D–R contestThe ballot was not a Democrat versus a Republican; a D/R margin cannot identify the winner.283,025
2022 · U.S. House ↗D+80.9239,969
2020 · U.S. House ↗Not a D–R contestThe ballot was not a Democrat versus a Republican; a D/R margin cannot identify the winner.362,950
2018 · U.S. House ↗D+73.6317,072

Historical district boundaries may differ. Margins compare Democratic and Republican vote totals. Nonstandard ballots are labeled separately.

The money

Bar length compares reported receipts in this race; the tick marks cash on hand. A missing filing stays blank rather than becoming $0.

One more fundraising reportCall the Map · $0

The candidates are comfortably out-fundraising the website covering them. A little rude, perhaps, but statistically unsurprising.

Received so far
$0
Measured compute
$26,188.58

Ko-fi and Buy Me a Coffee receipts are counted through Sep 1, 2026. Measured compute prices model runs at standard published API rates; it is not what I paid. Hosting, data and subscriptions, the domain and my own time are not counted. Donations buy gratitude, never a forecast adjustment.

Ko-fi ↗Buy Me a Coffee ↗

See the public support ledger →

No outside spending matched: Jamie Joyce.

FEC filings · through 06/30/2026 · Definitions & method

No county projection here: this is a same-party general, so there is no Democratic-vs-Republican margin to project onto counties.

Race context

Forecast votes cast
215,032
2024 presidential margin
D+77.6