California · Governor
Xavier Becerra is almost certain to keep the California governorship in Democratic hands. Predicted margin: D+23.0.
Under each share, its likely range (80 in 100 simulations)
Background
Newsom term-limited; Xavier Becerra (D) and Steve Hilton (R) advanced from the June top-two.
Forecast history
Latest reading · Oct 28 · first published Sep 9 · 80% range · margin points D+14.6 to D+31.5. Methodology
About this series
Reconstructed with the current model Aug 1 – Sep 8 and Sep 16 – Sep 18; published readings Sep 9 – Oct 28. Each reconstructed day is the current model on that day’s own inputs, not a forecast published then. Corrections are dated in the changelog.
We corrected the Republican opponent from Chad Bianco to Steve Hilton and matched the polls to Becerra–Hilton. The change from the earlier forecast is our source correction. Earlier readings remain in archived editions.
Faded: CTMM 2.2 reconstructed history: computed after the fact with each date's available polls and environment, without expert ratings; not an issued forecast. Issued forecasts begin at the launch marker.
CTMM 2.2 readings for 2026-09-16, 2026-09-17, 2026-09-18 were computed after the fact with each day's available inputs: no edition was issued on those days. Not an issued forecast.
Data table
| Date | Margin | Chance | 80% range | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 | D+23.0 | D win 99.0% | D+14.6 to D+31.5 | Published forecast |
| Oct 27 | D+22.6 | D win 99.0% | D+14.1 to D+31.0 | Published forecast |
| Oct 26 | D+22.5 | D win 99.0% | D+14.0 to D+30.9 | Published forecast |
| Oct 25 | D+22.5 | D win 99.0% | D+14.0 to D+31.0 | Published forecast |
| Oct 24 | D+23.3 | D win 99.0% | D+14.8 to D+31.8 | Published forecast |
| Oct 23 | D+23.3 | D win 99.0% | D+14.8 to D+31.8 | Published forecast |
| Oct 22 | D+23.3 | D win 99.0% | D+14.8 to D+31.8 | Published forecast |
| Oct 21 | D+23.2 | D win 99.0% | D+14.7 to D+31.7 | Published forecast |
| Oct 20 | D+21.7 | D win 98.9% | D+13.2 to D+30.2 | Published forecast |
| Oct 19 | D+21.7 | D win 98.9% | D+13.2 to D+30.3 | Published forecast |
| Oct 18 | D+21.8 | D win 98.9% | D+13.2 to D+30.3 | Published forecast |
| Oct 17 | D+20.9 | D win 98.8% | D+12.3 to D+29.4 | Published forecast |
| Oct 16 | D+20.9 | D win 98.8% | D+12.3 to D+29.4 | Published forecast |
| Oct 15 | D+20.9 | D win 98.8% | D+12.4 to D+29.4 | Published forecast |
| Oct 14 | D+20.9 | D win 98.8% | D+12.4 to D+29.4 | Published forecast |
| Oct 13 | D+20.9 | D win 98.8% | D+12.4 to D+29.5 | Published forecast |
| Oct 12 | D+19.2 | D win 98.6% | D+10.7 to D+27.8 | Published forecast |
| Oct 11 | D+19.2 | D win 98.6% | D+10.7 to D+27.8 | Published forecast |
| Oct 10 | D+19.3 | D win 98.6% | D+10.7 to D+27.8 | Published forecast |
| Oct 9 | D+19.2 | D win 98.6% | D+10.6 to D+27.7 | Published forecast |
| Oct 8 | D+19.2 | D win 98.6% | D+10.6 to D+27.8 | Published forecast |
| Oct 7 | D+19.2 | D win 98.6% | D+10.6 to D+27.8 | Published forecast |
| Oct 6 | D+17.7 | D win 98.4% | D+9.1 to D+26.3 | Published forecast |
| Oct 5 | D+21.2 | D win 98.8% | D+12.6 to D+29.8 | Published forecast |
| Oct 4 | D+24.2 | D win 99.0% | D+15.5 to D+32.9 | Published forecast |
| Oct 3 | D+24.2 | D win 99.1% | D+15.5 to D+32.9 | Published forecast |
| Oct 2 | D+24.2 | D win 99.1% | D+15.5 to D+32.9 | Published forecast |
| Oct 1 | D+24.2 | D win 99.1% | D+15.5 to D+32.9 | Published forecast |
| Sep 30 | D+24.2 | D win 99.0% | D+15.5 to D+32.9 | Published forecast |
| Sep 29 | D+24.2 | D win 99.1% | D+15.5 to D+32.9 | Published forecast |
| Sep 28 | D+24.2 | D win 99.0% | D+15.5 to D+32.9 | Published forecast |
| Sep 27 | D+24.2 | D win 99.1% | D+15.5 to D+32.9 | Published forecast |
| Sep 26 | D+22.6 | D win 99.0% | D+13.9 to D+31.2 | Published forecast |
| Sep 25 | D+25.5 | D win 99.1% | D+16.5 to D+34.4 | Published forecast |
| Sep 24 | D+24.7 | D win 99.1% | D+15.7 to D+33.7 | Published forecast |
| Sep 23 | D+24.7 | D win 99.1% | D+15.7 to D+33.6 | Published forecast |
| Sep 22 | D+24.6 | D win 99.1% | D+15.5 to D+33.8 | Published forecast |
| Sep 21 | D+24.6 | D win 99.1% | D+15.5 to D+33.8 | Published forecast |
| Sep 20 | D+24.6 | D win 99.1% | D+15.5 to D+33.8 | Published forecast |
| Sep 19 | D+24.6 | D win 99.1% | D+15.5 to D+33.8 | Published forecast |
| Sep 18 | D+24.6 | D win 99.1% | D+15.5 to D+33.8 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 17 | D+24.6 | D win 99.1% | D+15.5 to D+33.8 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 16 | D+24.6 | D win 99.1% | D+15.5 to D+33.8 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 15 | D+24.8 | D win 99.1% | D+15.5 to D+34.2 | Published forecast |
| Sep 14 | D+24.8 | D win 99.1% | D+15.5 to D+34.2 | Published forecast |
| Sep 13 | D+24.8 | D win 99.1% | D+15.5 to D+34.2 | Published forecast |
| Sep 12 | D+24.8 | D win 99.1% | D+15.5 to D+34.2 | Published forecast |
| Sep 11 | D+24.8 | D win 99.1% | D+15.5 to D+34.2 | Published forecast |
| Sep 10 | D+24.8 | D win 99.1% | D+15.5 to D+34.1 | Published forecast |
| Sep 9 | D+25.7 | D win 99.2% | D+16.3 to D+35.1 | Published forecast |
| Sep 8 | D+21.2 | D win 98.9% | D+12.1 to D+30.4 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 7 | D+21.2 | D win 98.9% | D+12.1 to D+30.4 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 6 | D+21.3 | D win 98.9% | D+12.1 to D+30.4 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 5 | D+24.8 | D win 99.1% | D+15.4 to D+34.1 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 4 | D+24.8 | D win 99.1% | D+15.4 to D+34.1 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 3 | D+24.8 | D win 99.1% | D+15.4 to D+34.1 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 2 | D+24.8 | D win 99.1% | D+15.4 to D+34.1 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 1 | D+24.8 | D win 99.1% | D+15.4 to D+34.1 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 31 | D+24.8 | D win 99.1% | D+15.4 to D+34.1 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 30 | D+24.8 | D win 99.1% | D+15.4 to D+34.1 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 29 | D+24.8 | D win 99.1% | D+15.4 to D+34.1 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 28 | D+24.8 | D win 99.1% | D+15.4 to D+34.1 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 27 | D+24.8 | D win 99.1% | D+15.4 to D+34.1 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 26 | D+24.7 | D win 99.1% | D+15.4 to D+34.1 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 25 | D+24.8 | D win 99.1% | D+15.4 to D+34.1 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 24 | D+24.8 | D win 99.1% | D+15.4 to D+34.1 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 23 | D+24.8 | D win 99.1% | D+15.4 to D+34.1 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 22 | D+24.7 | D win 99.1% | D+15.4 to D+34.1 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 21 | D+24.7 | D win 99.1% | D+15.4 to D+34.1 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 20 | D+24.7 | D win 99.1% | D+15.4 to D+34.1 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 19 | D+24.7 | D win 99.1% | D+15.4 to D+34.1 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 18 | D+24.7 | D win 99.1% | D+15.4 to D+34.1 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 17 | D+24.7 | D win 99.1% | D+15.4 to D+34.1 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 16 | D+24.7 | D win 99.1% | D+15.4 to D+34.1 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 15 | D+24.7 | D win 99.1% | D+15.4 to D+34.1 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 14 | D+24.7 | D win 99.1% | D+15.4 to D+34.0 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 13 | D+24.7 | D win 99.1% | D+15.4 to D+34.0 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 12 | D+26.2 | D win 99.1% | D+16.6 to D+35.9 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 11 | D+26.2 | D win 99.1% | D+16.6 to D+35.9 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 10 | D+26.2 | D win 99.1% | D+16.6 to D+35.8 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 9 | D+26.2 | D win 99.1% | D+16.6 to D+35.8 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 8 | D+26.2 | D win 99.1% | D+16.6 to D+35.8 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 7 | D+26.2 | D win 99.1% | D+16.6 to D+35.8 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 6 | D+26.1 | D win 99.1% | D+16.5 to D+35.8 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 5 | D+26.1 | D win 99.1% | D+16.5 to D+35.8 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 4 | D+26.1 | D win 99.1% | D+16.5 to D+35.7 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 3 | D+26.1 | D win 99.1% | D+16.5 to D+35.7 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 2 | D+26.1 | D win 99.1% | D+16.5 to D+35.7 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 1 | D+26.1 | D win 99.1% | D+16.5 to D+35.7 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
The polls
Poll average D+20.7A poll’s weight halves every 60 days and grows with its sample. Each pollster counts once, at its best release. Every poll counts at its published margin, sponsored or not.In governor races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which leaves the average it reads the same for this race. It then applies a fitted correction of 2.5 points toward Republicans for governor races, measured from past polling error, before blending it with its other evidence.18 recorded polls · 18 in the poll average
| Fieldwork | Added | Pollster | Result | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| from 2026-10-21 | 1h ago | M3 Strategies ↗ | D+23.0D 59% · R 36% | 489 LV |
| from 2026-10-16 | 12h ago | Public Policy Institute of California ↗ | D+24.0D 61% · R 37% | 1,086 LV |
| from 2026-10-19 | 2d ago | SurveyUSA ↗ | D+22.0D 54% · R 32% | 799 LV |
| from 2026-10-17 | 4d ago | McLaughlin & Associates ↗ | D+15.7D 55% · R 39.3% | 800 LV |
| from 2026-10-09 | 7d ago | TrueDot ↗ | D+20.0D 55% · R 35% | 909 LV |
| from 2026-10-17 | Emerson College ↗ | D+27.3D 63.63% · R 36.37% | 1,000 LV | |
| from 2026-09-24 | ActiVote ↗ | D+25.6D 62.8% · R 37.2% | 400 LV | |
| from 2026-09-24 | Manhattan Institute ↗ | D+18.0D 57% · R 39% | 1,000 LV |
Explore each poll’s weight in the average
Poll average D+20.7
- Published result
- D+22.0
- Weight in the poll average
- 0.73 · 6.3% of the average
- Fieldwork
- 19 Oct–24 Oct
- Sample
- 799 LV
- Sponsor
- Not listed
- Published result
- D+23.0
- Weight in the poll average
- 0.57 · 8.0% of the average
- Fieldwork
- 21 Oct–23 Oct
- Sample
- 489 LV
- Sponsor
- Not listed
- Published result
- D+24.0
- Weight in the poll average
- 0.84 · 6.2% of the average
- Fieldwork
- 16 Oct–22 Oct
- Sample
- 1,086 LV
- Sponsor
- Not listed
- Published result
- D+15.7
- Weight in the poll average
- 0.70 · 9.9% of the average
- Fieldwork
- 17 Oct–20 Oct
- Sample
- 800 LV
- Sponsor
- Not listed
- Published result
- D+27.3
- Weight in the poll average
- 0.78 · 11% of the average
- Fieldwork
- 17 Oct–19 Oct
- Sample
- 1,000 LV
- Sponsor
- Not listed
- Published result
- D+25.6
- Weight in the poll average
- 0.47 · 6.7% of the average
- Fieldwork
- 24 Sep–16 Oct
- Sample
- 400 LV
- Sponsor
- Not listed
- Published result
- D+20.0
- Weight in the poll average
- 0.70 · 5.3% of the average
- Fieldwork
- 9 Oct–14 Oct
- Sample
- 909 LV
- Sponsor
- Not listed
- Published result
- D+18.0
- Weight in the poll average
- 0.63 · 8.9% of the average
- Fieldwork
- 24 Sep–1 Oct
- Sample
- 1,000 LV
- Sponsor
- Not listed
How the margin was built
Tap an input for its calculation and source.
Displayed values are rounded.
All calculations & sources
How this state voted, 2024 +20.140 points
The state's presidential margin in 2024 as a share of all votes cast, from our own county sums — the same measurement the model's statewide terrain center is built from. Every pull below is measured from here, not from EVEN, which is why a landslide seat's listed pulls are small numbers and still land where the forecast does.
- 2024 presidential result for this state, as a share of all votes cast, from Call the Map's own county sums.
- Same source as Act I's 2024-president reference mark, so the origin lands on it.
Historical error calibration +3.745 points
A prior-election residual correction, when an admitted model publishes one.
- The forecast’s calibration against past governor results. The recorded contribution is +3.7.
National environment +1.832 points
The contribution to this race’s margin, not the national polling margin itself. The race’s loading, reference level and polling blend determine how much of the national climate reaches its final forecast.
- The national environment in this edition is D+8.4. This row is its contribution to the race’s prior, not a claim that the country is D+1.8.
- This step’s recorded contribution to the margin is +1.8.
- The elasticity is fitted on the pooled panel of contested governor races (2010–2024) with cycle-clustered standard errors; it is a measured response to the national environment, not a judgment floor.
Structural safeguards +1.085 points
Bounded corrections that keep the model consistent with structural facts.
- The forecast’s fitted center calibration for governor races, measured on past cycles. The recorded contribution is +1.1.
This race’s polls −2.115 points
What this race’s own recent polling adds beyond its prior. The forecast weights each poll for recency and sample size and counts each pollster once; the weights listed here are those of the polls’ own average.
- SurveyUSA (2026-10-24, n=799): D+22.0 · weight 0.73 in the poll average
- M3 Strategies (2026-10-23, n=489): D+23.0 · weight 0.57 in the poll average
- Public Policy Institute of California (2026-10-22, n=1,086): D+24.0 · weight 0.84 in the poll average
- McLaughlin & Associates (2026-10-20, n=800): D+15.7 · weight 0.70 in the poll average
- Emerson College (2026-10-19, n=1,000): D+27.3 · weight 0.78 in the poll average
- ActiVote (2026-10-16, n=400): D+25.6 · weight 0.47 in the poll average
- … and 12 more below.
- Poll average D+20.7, from 18 polls · 18 recorded polls. This is the polls’ own average, each poll at its published margin, the figure this page’s poll summary shows. In governor races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which leaves the average it reads the same for this race. It then applies a fitted correction of 2.5 points toward Republicans for governor races, measured from past polling error, before blending it with its other evidence. The forecast gives the polls 98% of the weight against its structural prior for this race, which moves the margin 2.1 points toward Republicans from where it stood before the polls. Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-10-24 (4 days old).
Fitted model, above the terrain shown −1.632 points
What the fitted model adds on top of the starting terrain above — incumbency, past results, campaign finance and the other fitted terms — measured from that terrain rather than from EVEN. It is a comparison with the starting point already shown, not a separate input. The source detail lists the variables the fit uses.
- Fitted baseline 18.508 minus starting point 20.140 = -1.632 points.
- Fitted intercept: -6.136 points.
- 2010 White population share used by the frozen historical fit: observed input 57.568. -0.503 × ((57.568 − 77.922) / 12.864) = 0.795 points.
- gov_midterm_wh: observed input -1.000. -0.987 × ((-1.000 − 0.336) / 0.739) = 1.785 points.
- 2024 presidential lean relative to the national result: observed input 22.300. 4.163 × ((22.300 − -4.415) / 20.258) = 5.490 points.
- Previous governor election margin: observed input 18.360. 1.755 × ((18.360 − -3.131) / 19.227) = 1.962 points.
- gov_inc_running_signed: observed input 0.000. 2.531 × ((0.000 − -0.120) / 0.708) = 0.428 points.
- gov_inc_tenure_signed: observed input 0.000. 3.340 × ((0.000 − -0.143) / 0.902) = 0.529 points.
- The displayed arithmetic is rounded; the fitted terms use full precision. The intercept plus these five terms gives the non-ratings baseline.
- No source-verified current Gallup reading supports the former 40% / July 2026 claim. The current Gallup series ends in 2025; the Presidency Project identifies its 2026 observations as other pollsters. Use the unchanged fitted missing-value rule, not a replacement polling scale.
- Certified 2024 presidential baseline: state D+20.8, national R+1.5; subtracting the national margin gives relative lean +22.3. Source: FEC compilation of certified state results.
The components this edition publishes for this race, in points. “Other factors” closes the sum to the two-party structural lean exactly. Here the structural lean IS the published margin, so the walk sums to the projection exactly; nothing is left over.
| Named factor | Contribution |
|---|---|
| FundamentalsThe admitted fitted baseline. Its surviving variables differ by office; the source detail above identifies those used for this race. | +18.51 |
| Historical calibrationThe House lane's calibration against certified past cycles. | +3.75 |
| This race's pollsAdmitted head-to-head polls of this race, recency- and quality-weighted. | −2.12 |
| National environmentThe national environment’s contribution to the prior. Polling can attenuate its influence; this value is not the national polling margin. | +1.83 |
| Structural terrain safeguardA bounded pull toward presidential terrain in heavily partisan states. | +1.08 |
| Other factors | 0.00 |
Where the votes are
The map of this race loads here.
Race context
- Turnout, 2018 midterm
- 47.3% 12,712,542 ballots
- Turnout, 2022 midterm
- 42.9% 11,146,610 ballots
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+20.8between the two parties
Turnout is ballots cast statewide as a share of the voting-eligible population. Source: University of Florida Election Lab ↗
Population profile
U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 American Community Survey 5-year estimates ↗
Forecast as of October 28, 2026: Call the Map currently has Xavier Becerra ahead of Steve Hilton by D+23.0, with a 99 in 100 chance to win. This is an open seat. That result would keep the seat with Democrats. The current poll average is D+20.7; 18 public polls are recorded.