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Forecast6 days out
Race polling · GOV-CA

California Governor polls 2026

Xavier Becerra (D) vs Steve Hilton (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.

Poll averageD+20.7the polls’ average, each as published · same figure as the race page
Polls2121 on file · 18 in the poll average · 3 not counted
Latest field dateOct 24Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-10-24 (4 days old)
EditionOct 28the poll average and its weights as of this edition

The polls and the poll average

drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its poll

Oct 28, 2026D+20.7today's poll average of 18 polls

EvenD+10D+20D+30Jun ’26JulAugSepOct
  • poll in the average · area is its weight
  • trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average

The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.

Data table
DaysAverage as it stoodTrend line
Oct 28, 2026D+20.7D+20.7
Oct 24–Oct 27, 2026D+20.7D+20.7
Oct 23, 2026D+20.7D+20.7
Oct 22, 2026D+20.4D+20.7
Oct 20–Oct 21, 2026D+20.2D+20.6 to D+20.7
Oct 19, 2026D+20.8D+20.6
Oct 16–Oct 18, 2026D+19.7D+20.4 to D+20.5
Oct 14–Oct 15, 2026D+19.0D+20.2 to D+20.3
Oct 1–Oct 13, 2026D+18.9D+18.9 to D+20.1
Sep 28–Sep 30, 2026D+19.0D+18.9
Sep 20–Sep 27, 2026D+21.5D+20.4 to D+18.9
Sep 14–Sep 19, 2026D+20.6D+21.3 to D+20.7
Sep 10–Sep 13, 2026D+21.9D+21.1 to D+21.2
Aug 9–Sep 9, 2026D+22.1D+22.1 to D+21.1
Jul 6–Aug 8, 2026D+23.7D+23.7 to D+22.1
Jun 17–Jul 5, 2026D+23.1D+23.1 to D+23.7
May 26–Jun 16, 2026D+21.9D+21.9 to D+23.0
May 24–May 25, 2026D+21.0D+21.8

In governor races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which leaves the average it reads the same for this race.

Every poll on file · 21

newest added first

18 in the poll average · 3 shown, not counted

PollsterFieldedSampleResultAddedWeightSource
●M3 StrategiesGeneral489 LVD+23.0Xavier Becerra 59Steve Hilton 361h ago0.57Pollster post
●Public Policy Institute of CaliforniaGeneral1,086 LVD+24.0Xavier Becerra 61Steve Hilton 37Don't know 1Would not vote 123h ago0.84Poll release
●SurveyUSAGeneral799 LVD+22.0Xavier Becerra 54Steve Hilton 32Don't know 141d ago0.73Poll release
●McLaughlin & AssociatesGeneral800 LVD+15.7Xavier Becerra 55Steve Hilton 39.3Don't know 4.94d ago0.70News coverage
●Emerson CollegeGeneral1,000 LVD+27.3Xavier Becerra 63.63Steve Hilton 36.377d ago0.78Poll release
●TrueDotGeneral909 LVD+20.0Xavier Becerra 55Steve Hilton 35Don't know 10Would not vote 17d ago0.70News coverage
●ActiVoteGeneral400 LVD+25.6Xavier Becerra 62.8Steve Hilton 37.20.47Poll release
UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental StudiesGeneral · Governor4,512 LVD+25.0Xavier Becerra 58Steve Hilton 33counted once · listed twicePoll release
●SurveyUSAGeneral742 LVD+22.0Xavier Becerra 55Steve Hilton 33Don't know 120.48Poll release
University of California Berkeley Jack Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research/Verasight/TrueDotGeneral · Governor1,983 LVD+18.0Xavier Becerra 54Steve Hilton 36source not read by the modelNews coverage
●Manhattan InstituteGeneral1,000 LVD+18.0Xavier Becerra 57Steve Hilton 39Don't know 3Neither/would not vote 10.63Poll release
●IVC MediaGeneral2,906 LVD+10.0Xavier Becerra 48Steve Hilton 38Don't know 110.71Poll release

Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.

Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.