California Governor polls
Xavier Becerra (D) vs Steve Hilton (R). The polls the model aggregates, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
Adjusted aggregateD+20.9same figure as the race page
Polls55 recorded polls · 5 eligible for the aggregate · 5 with positive weight
Latest field dateAug 9Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-08-09 (35 days old)
EditionSep 13weights and corrections as of this edition
The polls the model reads
hover, tap or Tab to any poll- counted poll · area is its model weight
- weight exactly zero · shown, not counted
- poll trend · smoothed across nearby polls, larger and non-partisan ones count more · the recent end firms up as polls arrive
- published average
- 30 days before this edition
Every poll on file · 6
newest first6 in the aggregate · 0 shown, not counted
| Pollster | Fielded | Added | Sample | Result | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental StudiesGeneral · Governor | 2,310 LV | Xavier Becerra 55Steve Hilton 37 | 0.340 | Poll release | ||
| ●University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental StudiesGeneral | 2,310 LV | Xavier Becerra 55Steve Hilton 37Don't know 7 | 0.340 | Poll release | ||
| ●Public Policy Institute of CaliforniaGeneral | 1,003 LV | Xavier Becerra 61Steve Hilton 36Don't know 2Neither/would not vote 1 | 0.090 | Poll release | ||
| ●Kreate StrategiesGeneral · Governor | 900 LV | Xavier Becerra 58Steve Hilton 33+1 other release | 0.037 | Poll release | ||
| ●University of Southern California/California State University Long Beach Center for Urban Politics and Policy/Cal Poly PomonaGeneral | 735 LV | Xavier Becerra 42Katie Porter 22Would not vote 20Don't know 16+5 other releases | 0.016 | News coverage | ||
| ●University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental StudiesGeneral | 8,578 RV | Xavier Becerra 52Steve Hilton 31Don't know 17 | 0.052 | Poll release |
Archive source date 2026-09-13. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.