CA-22 · U.S. House
Randy Villegas is favored to flip California’s 22nd congressional district. Predicted margin: D+3.0.
Under each share, its likely range (80 in 100 simulations) · * incumbent
Background
Harris-district Republican.
Forecast history
Latest reading · Oct 28 · first published Sep 9 · 80% range · margin points R+4.2 to D+10.4. Methodology
About this series
Reconstructed with the current model Aug 1 – Sep 8 and Sep 16 – Sep 18; published readings Sep 9 – Oct 28. Each reconstructed day is the current model on that day’s own inputs, not a forecast published then. Corrections are dated in the changelog.
Faded: CTMM 2.2 reconstructed history: computed after the fact with each date's available polls and environment, without expert ratings; not an issued forecast. Issued forecasts begin at the launch marker.
CTMM 2.2 readings for 2026-09-16, 2026-09-17, 2026-09-18 were computed after the fact with each day's available inputs: no edition was issued on those days. Not an issued forecast.
Data table
| Date | Margin | Chance | 80% range | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 | D+3.0 | D win 71.3% | R+4.2 to D+10.4 | Published forecast |
| Oct 27 | D+3.1 | D win 71.3% | R+4.2 to D+10.4 | Published forecast |
| Oct 26 | D+3.1 | D win 71.2% | R+4.2 to D+10.4 | Published forecast |
| Oct 25 | D+3.1 | D win 71.2% | R+4.2 to D+10.4 | Published forecast |
| Oct 24 | D+3.1 | D win 71.1% | R+4.2 to D+10.4 | Published forecast |
| Oct 23 | D+3.0 | D win 70.9% | R+4.3 to D+10.3 | Published forecast |
| Oct 22 | D+3.0 | D win 70.8% | R+4.3 to D+10.3 | Published forecast |
| Oct 21 | D+3.0 | D win 70.8% | R+4.3 to D+10.3 | Published forecast |
| Oct 20 | D+3.0 | D win 70.6% | R+4.3 to D+10.3 | Published forecast |
| Oct 19 | D+3.0 | D win 70.5% | R+4.3 to D+10.3 | Published forecast |
| Oct 18 | D+3.0 | D win 70.4% | R+4.3 to D+10.3 | Published forecast |
| Oct 17 | D+3.0 | D win 70.3% | R+4.4 to D+10.3 | Published forecast |
| Oct 16 | D+2.9 | D win 69.9% | R+4.4 to D+10.2 | Published forecast |
| Oct 15 | D+2.9 | D win 69.8% | R+4.4 to D+10.2 | Published forecast |
| Oct 14 | D+2.9 | D win 69.6% | R+4.5 to D+10.2 | Published forecast |
| Oct 13 | D+2.9 | D win 69.6% | R+4.5 to D+10.2 | Published forecast |
| Oct 12 | D+2.9 | D win 69.5% | R+4.5 to D+10.2 | Published forecast |
| Oct 11 | D+2.9 | D win 69.5% | R+4.5 to D+10.2 | Published forecast |
| Oct 10 | D+2.9 | D win 69.5% | R+4.5 to D+10.2 | Published forecast |
| Oct 9 | D+2.8 | D win 69.4% | R+4.5 to D+10.2 | Published forecast |
| Oct 8 | D+2.8 | D win 69.3% | R+4.5 to D+10.2 | Published forecast |
| Oct 7 | D+2.8 | D win 69.2% | R+4.5 to D+10.2 | Published forecast |
| Oct 6 | D+2.8 | D win 68.9% | R+4.6 to D+10.1 | Published forecast |
| Oct 5 | D+2.8 | D win 68.9% | R+4.6 to D+10.1 | Published forecast |
| Oct 4 | D+2.8 | D win 68.9% | R+4.6 to D+10.1 | Published forecast |
| Oct 3 | D+2.7 | D win 68.9% | R+4.6 to D+10.1 | Published forecast |
| Oct 2 | D+2.7 | D win 68.7% | R+4.6 to D+10.1 | Published forecast |
| Oct 1 | D+2.7 | D win 68.5% | R+4.7 to D+10.1 | Published forecast |
| Sep 30 | D+2.7 | D win 68.4% | R+4.6 to D+10.1 | Published forecast |
| Sep 29 | D+2.7 | D win 68.6% | R+4.7 to D+10.1 | Published forecast |
| Sep 28 | D+2.7 | D win 68.6% | R+4.7 to D+10.1 | Published forecast |
| Sep 27 | D+2.7 | D win 68.4% | R+4.7 to D+10.1 | Published forecast |
| Sep 26 | D+2.7 | D win 68.2% | R+4.7 to D+10.1 | Published forecast |
| Sep 25 | D+2.7 | D win 68.1% | R+4.7 to D+10.1 | Published forecast |
| Sep 24 | D+2.6 | D win 68.2% | R+4.7 to D+10.0 | Published forecast |
| Sep 23 | D+2.6 | D win 67.9% | R+4.8 to D+10.0 | Published forecast |
| Sep 22 | D+2.6 | D win 67.5% | R+4.8 to D+10.0 | Published forecast |
| Sep 21 | D+2.6 | D win 67.5% | R+4.8 to D+10.0 | Published forecast |
| Sep 20 | D+2.6 | D win 67.9% | R+4.8 to D+10.0 | Published forecast |
| Sep 19 | D+2.6 | D win 68.0% | R+4.8 to D+10.0 | Published forecast |
| Sep 18 | D+2.6 | D win 67.5% | R+4.8 to D+10.0 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 17 | D+2.6 | D win 67.5% | R+4.8 to D+10.0 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 16 | D+2.6 | D win 67.5% | R+4.8 to D+10.0 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 15 | D+2.5 | D win 66.9% | R+4.9 to D+9.9 | Published forecast |
| Sep 14 | D+2.5 | D win 67.2% | R+4.9 to D+9.9 | Published forecast |
| Sep 13 | D+2.5 | D win 67.3% | R+4.9 to D+9.9 | Published forecast |
| Sep 12 | D+2.5 | D win 67.0% | R+4.9 to D+9.9 | Published forecast |
| Sep 11 | D+2.5 | D win 66.8% | R+4.9 to D+9.9 | Published forecast |
| Sep 10 | D+2.5 | D win 66.9% | R+5.0 to D+9.9 | Published forecast |
| Sep 9 | D+2.5 | D win 67.0% | R+5.0 to D+9.9 | Published forecast |
| Sep 8 | D+2.4 | D win 66.2% | R+5.0 to D+9.8 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 7 | D+2.4 | D win 65.9% | R+5.1 to D+9.8 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 6 | D+5.9 | D win 84.6% | R+1.6 to D+13.3 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 5 | D+5.8 | D win 84.5% | R+1.6 to D+13.3 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 4 | D+2.4 | D win 65.8% | R+5.1 to D+9.8 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 3 | D+2.4 | D win 65.7% | R+5.1 to D+9.8 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 2 | D+2.4 | D win 65.7% | R+5.1 to D+9.8 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 1 | D+2.4 | D win 65.7% | R+5.1 to D+9.8 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 31 | D+2.4 | D win 65.7% | R+5.1 to D+9.8 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 30 | D+2.4 | D win 65.6% | R+5.1 to D+9.8 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 29 | D+2.4 | D win 65.7% | R+5.1 to D+9.8 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 28 | D+2.3 | D win 65.6% | R+5.1 to D+9.8 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 27 | D+2.3 | D win 65.6% | R+5.1 to D+9.8 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 26 | D+2.3 | D win 65.5% | R+5.2 to D+9.8 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 25 | D+2.3 | D win 65.5% | R+5.1 to D+9.8 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 24 | D+2.3 | D win 65.5% | R+5.2 to D+9.8 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 23 | D+2.3 | D win 65.5% | R+5.2 to D+9.8 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 22 | D+2.3 | D win 65.4% | R+5.2 to D+9.8 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 21 | D+2.3 | D win 65.3% | R+5.2 to D+9.8 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 20 | D+2.3 | D win 65.2% | R+5.2 to D+9.8 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 19 | D+2.3 | D win 65.3% | R+5.2 to D+9.8 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 18 | D+2.3 | D win 65.3% | R+5.2 to D+9.8 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 17 | D+2.3 | D win 65.2% | R+5.2 to D+9.8 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 16 | D+2.3 | D win 65.2% | R+5.2 to D+9.8 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 15 | D+2.3 | D win 65.2% | R+5.2 to D+9.8 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 14 | D+2.3 | D win 65.0% | R+5.2 to D+9.8 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 13 | D+2.3 | D win 65.0% | R+5.2 to D+9.8 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 12 | D+2.3 | D win 65.1% | R+5.2 to D+9.8 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 11 | D+2.3 | D win 65.0% | R+5.2 to D+9.8 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 10 | D+2.3 | D win 65.0% | R+5.2 to D+9.8 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 9 | D+2.3 | D win 65.0% | R+5.2 to D+9.8 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 8 | D+2.3 | D win 65.0% | R+5.3 to D+9.8 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 7 | D+2.3 | D win 64.9% | R+5.3 to D+9.8 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 6 | D+2.2 | D win 64.7% | R+5.3 to D+9.8 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 5 | D+2.2 | D win 64.7% | R+5.3 to D+9.8 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 4 | D+2.2 | D win 64.7% | R+5.3 to D+9.8 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 3 | D+2.2 | D win 64.6% | R+5.3 to D+9.8 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 2 | D+2.2 | D win 64.6% | R+5.3 to D+9.8 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 1 | D+2.2 | D win 64.6% | R+5.3 to D+9.8 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
The polls
Poll average D+4.0A poll’s weight halves every 60 days and grows with its sample. Each pollster counts once, at its best release. Every poll counts at its published margin, sponsored or not.In House races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at D+2.0.1 recorded poll · 1 in the poll average
| Fieldwork | Added | Pollster | Result | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| from 2026-06-15 | Tulchin Research ↗House Majority PAC | D+4.0D 48% · R 44% | 800 LV |
Where the votes are
The map of this race loads here.
Recent elections
| Election | Result | Votes cast |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 · U.S. House ↗ | R+6.8 | 167,507 |
| 2022 · U.S. House ↗ | R+3.0 | 102,856 |
| 2020 · U.S. House ↗ | R+8.5 | 315,139 |
| 2018 · U.S. House ↗ | R+5.4 | 222,379 |
Historical district boundaries may differ. Margins are the Democrat’s share of all votes cast minus the Republican’s.
The money
David G. Valadao ↗
R$4.9Mraised
$3.4M cash on hand
Randy Villegas ↗
D$2.6Mraised
$572K cash on hand
The tick marks cash on hand. A missing filing stays blank rather than becoming $0.
One more fundraising reportCall the Map · $325
The candidates are comfortably out-fundraising the website covering them. A little rude, perhaps, but statistically unsurprising.
- Received so far
- $325
- Measured compute
- $26,188.58
Ko-fi and Buy Me a Coffee supports are counted as each one arrives. Measured compute prices model runs at standard published API rates; it is not what I paid. Hosting, data and subscriptions, the domain and my own time are not counted. Donations buy gratitude, never a forecast adjustment.
Supporters are listed by first name and last initial; a username alone is shortened to its first eight characters. Want your full name shown? Say so in your message. Give privately, or leave the name blank, and you are listed as Anonymous, with the platform and date. Supporters who give a name may also be thanked by name in the newsletter.
Thank you to Tom H., ColoradoFlyer, Chris, EW, gbaileym…, True Independent, MT V., JBL, Erin G., Caroline M., Melanie, MKV and 7 more.
Outside spending
Separate from what the campaigns raisedFor and against Randy Villegas$5.7M
30 spending groups
| Group | For | Against |
|---|---|---|
| New Democrat Majority | $0 | $751K |
| BDA PAC | $0 | $600K |
| American Federation of State County & Municipal Employees PEOPLE | $579K | $0 |
| Working Families Party PAC | $532K | $0 |
| DMFI PAC | $0 | $500K |
| Leaders We Deserve | $450K | $0 |
| The Governing Majority Fund | $0 | $401K |
| National Nurses United for Patient Protection | $400K | $0 |
| Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC | $200K | $0 |
| Somos PAC | $196K | $0 |
| AB PAC | $188K | $0 |
| AMERICAN PRIORITIES (AP) | $162K | $0 |
| Health Care Saves Lives | $136K | $0 |
| Project 218 | $116K | $0 |
| STRATEGIC MAJORITY PAC | $0 | $114K |
| America PAC | $0 | $94K |
| CLF | $0 | $86K |
| MAREMOTO ACTION | $48K | $0 |
| 314 Action Fund | $0 | $37K |
| MAGA INC. | $0 | $21K |
| Central Valley for Working Families | $21K | $0 |
| Indivisible Action | $21K | $0 |
| HISPANIC LEADERSHIP TRUST | $0 | $12K |
| DEMOCRATIC MESSAGING PROJECT | $10K | $0 |
| THE CONSERVATIVE CAUCUS DBA AMERICANS FOR CONSTITUTIONAL LIBERTY | $0 | $9K |
| MoveOn.org Political Action | $4K | $0 |
| VOTERS OF TOMORROW PAC | $3K | $0 |
| SURJ PAC | $2K | $0 |
| Courage Campaign Super PAC | $2K | $0 |
| FOOD AND WATER ACTION | $333 | $0 |
For and against David G. Valadao$7.9M
18 spending groups
| Group | For | Against |
|---|---|---|
| HMP | $0 | $3.7M |
| Giffords PAC | $0 | $1.8M |
| LCV Victory Fund | $0 | $527K |
| 314 Action Fund | $0 | $437K |
| Health Care Saves Lives | $0 | $418K |
| America PAC | $265K | $0 |
| Working Families Party PAC | $0 | $253K |
| CLF | $131K | $0 |
| End Citizens United | $0 | $104K |
| National Association of Realtors Political Action Committee | $71K | $0 |
| Protect Liberty PAC | $40K | $0 |
| THE CONSERVATIVE CAUCUS DBA AMERICANS FOR CONSTITUTIONAL LIBERTY | $31K | $0 |
| CLEARPATH ACTION FUND, INC. | $26K | $0 |
| ECONOMIC SECURITY PROJECT ACTION INC. | $0 | $25K |
| STRATEGIC MAJORITY PAC | $13K | $0 |
| HISPANIC LEADERSHIP TRUST | $12K | $0 |
| AMERICAN PRIORITIES (AP) | $0 | $8K |
| NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND | $3K | $0 |
Includes primary spending. Opposition is recorded against its named target; no benefit to another candidate is assumed.
$3.4M in outside spending on earlier candidates.
FEC filings · through 06/30/2026 · Definitions & method
Race context
- 2024 presidential vote here
- 171,160
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+1.9between the two parties
Coverage
1 story · 1 quote
- GOP Congressman in California Swing-District Race Defends Vote for Medicaid Cuts ↗
KFF Health News · Oct 23
- U.S. Rep. David Valadao voted to cut Medicaid. His constituents want answers as the California Republican fights for reelection.
https://kffhealthnews.org/elections/valadao-villegas-california-22nd-house-district-healthcare-costs-ads-swing/ ↗
KFF Health News · Official · 5d ago
curated newsroom · recent Bluesky post · named-race match
Forecast as of October 28, 2026: Call the Map currently has Randy Villegas ahead of David G. Valadao by D+3.0, with a 71 in 100 chance to win. The seat is currently held by a Republican. That result would flip the seat to Democrats. The current poll average is D+4.0; 1 public poll is recorded.