CA-22 · U.S. House
Open this race on The Map ↗Randy Villegas is narrowly favored to flip CA-22’s House seat. Predicted margin: D+2.5.
high / low: vote share (%) in the middle 80 in 100 simulations
About this field
Harris-district Republican.
Forecast share averages the simulated vote. Win chance counts how often a candidate wins. A wider range of outcomes can give a candidate a higher win chance despite a lower average share.
Forecast history
Latest reading · Sep 13 · first published Sep 9 · 80% range · margin points R+4.9 to D+9.9. Methodology
Hover the line, tap it, or use the arrow keys to inspect its history.
About this series
This comparable series begins on September 9, 2026, when the model version changed to CTMM 2.2. Earlier readings remain in the archive and are not joined as voter movement; faded points before September 9, 2026 are reconstructions, not forecasts issued on those days.
Faded: CTMM 2.2 reconstructed history: computed after the fact with each date's available polls and environment, without expert ratings; not an issued forecast. Issued forecasts begin at the launch marker.
The polls
Ledger weighted average D+1.9Used by the forecast: 1 poll (60-day half-life) · measured D+2.0 · after the fitted poll-error shift D+2.01 recorded poll · 1 eligible for the aggregate · 1 with positive weight
| Fieldwork | Added | Pollster | Result | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| from 2026-06-15 | Tulchin Research ↗House Majority PAC | D+4.0D 48% · R 44% | 800 LV |
Recent elections
| Election | Result | Votes cast |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 · U.S. House ↗ | R+6.8 | 167,507 |
| 2022 · U.S. House ↗ | R+3.0 | 102,856 |
| 2020 · U.S. House ↗ | R+8.5 | 315,139 |
| 2018 · U.S. House ↗ | R+5.4 | 222,379 |
Historical district boundaries may differ. Margins compare Democratic and Republican vote totals. Nonstandard ballots are labeled separately.
The money
David G. Valadao ↗
R$4.9Mraised
$3.4M cash on handFiling through 06/30/2026
Randy Villegas ↗
D$2.6Mraised
$572K cash on handFiling through 06/30/2026
Bar length compares reported receipts in this race; the tick marks cash on hand. A missing filing stays blank rather than becoming $0.
One more fundraising reportCall the Map · $0
The candidates are comfortably out-fundraising the website covering them. A little rude, perhaps, but statistically unsurprising.
- Received so far
- $0
- Measured compute
- $26,188.58
Ko-fi and Buy Me a Coffee receipts are counted through Sep 1, 2026. Measured compute prices model runs at standard published API rates; it is not what I paid. Hosting, data and subscriptions, the domain and my own time are not counted. Donations buy gratitude, never a forecast adjustment.
Outside spending
Support + opposition · separate from receiptsFor and against Randy Villegas$3.4M
17 spending groups
| Group | For | Against |
|---|---|---|
| New Democrat Majority | $0 | $751K |
| BDA PAC | $0 | $600K |
| DMFI PAC | $0 | $500K |
| Leaders We Deserve | $450K | $0 |
| Working Families Party PAC | $441K | $0 |
| Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC | $200K | $0 |
| AMERICAN PRIORITIES (AP) | $162K | $0 |
| CLF | $0 | $86K |
| The Governing Majority Fund | $0 | $53K |
| MAREMOTO ACTION | $48K | $0 |
| 314 Action Fund | $0 | $37K |
| Indivisible Action | $21K | $0 |
| Central Valley for Working Families | $5K | $0 |
| MoveOn.org Political Action | $4K | $0 |
| SURJ PAC | $2K | $0 |
| Courage Campaign Super PAC | $2K | $0 |
| FOOD AND WATER ACTION | $333 | $0 |
For and against David G. Valadao$1.4M
7 spending groups
| Group | For | Against |
|---|---|---|
| HMP | $0 | $789K |
| 314 Action Fund | $0 | $437K |
| CLF | $131K | $0 |
| America PAC | $32K | $0 |
| CLEARPATH ACTION FUND, INC. | $26K | $0 |
| National Association of Realtors Political Action Committee | $11K | $0 |
| AMERICAN PRIORITIES (AP) | $0 | $8K |
Includes primary spending. Opposition is recorded against its named target; no benefit to another candidate is assumed.
$3.4M in outside spending on earlier candidates.
FEC filings · through 06/30/2026 · Definitions & method
Race context
- Forecast votes cast
- 119,072
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+1.9
Coverage
1 quote
- Hispanic voters, who swung right in 2024 but have moved away from Republicans in the past year and a half, will play a major role in determining control of the House this cycle.
Read @erincovey.bsky.social's latest on AZ-06, CA-22 and CO-08: ↗
The Cook Political Report · Analysis · Sep 3
curated ratings shop · recent Bluesky post · named-race match · election-topic match