Wisconsin · Governor
Open this race on The Map ↗David Crowley has a slight edge to keep the Wisconsin governorship in Democratic hands. Predicted margin: D+2.0.
high / low: vote share (%) in the middle 80 in 100 simulations
About this field
Open after Evers retired. Both nominations were settled at the August 11 primary: David Crowley for the Democrats and Tom Tiffany for the Republicans. Francesca Hong, Joel Brennan and Kelda Roys were eliminated in the Democratic primary; Sara Rodriguez withdrew July 17.
Forecast share averages the simulated vote. Win chance counts how often a candidate wins. A wider range of outcomes can give a candidate a higher win chance despite a lower average share.
Forecast history
Latest reading · Sep 13 · first published Sep 9 · 80% range · margin points R+6.9 to D+11.0. Methodology
Hover the line, tap it, or use the arrow keys to inspect its history.
About this series
This comparable series begins on September 9, 2026, when the model version changed to CTMM 2.2. Earlier readings remain in the archive and are not joined as voter movement; faded points before September 9, 2026 are reconstructions, not forecasts issued on those days.
Faded: CTMM 2.2 reconstructed history: computed after the fact with each date's available polls and environment, without expert ratings; not an issued forecast. Issued forecasts begin at the launch marker.
The polls
Ledger weighted average D+3.7Used by the forecast: 6 polls (60-day half-life) · measured D+3.8 · after the fitted poll-error shift D+1.36 recorded polls · 6 eligible for the aggregate · 6 with positive weight
| Fieldwork | Added | Pollster | Result | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| from 2026-08-12 | Marquette University Law School ↗ | D+5.0D 49% · R 44% | 738 LV | |
| from 2026-08-14 | TIPP Insights ↗League of American Workers | D+3.4D 46.74% · R 43.39% | 1,187 LV | |
| from 2026-08-12 | Platform Communications ↗Badger Battleground Poll | D+4.0D 48% · R 44% | 500 LV | |
| from 2026-07-30 | GBAO ↗Protect Our Wisconsin | D+3.0D 47% · R 44% | 800 LV | |
| from 2026-07-20 | RMG Research ↗Institute for Reforming Government | Napolitan News Service | D+3.0D 46% · R 43% | 800 RV | |
| from 2026-03-13 | TIPP Insights ↗League of American Workers | D+1.5D 42.34% · R 40.84% | 1,168 LV |
Explore poll adjustments
Ledger weighted average D+3.7
- Published result
- D+5.0
- Model read
- D+4.3
- Model weight
- 0.459
- Fieldwork
- 12 Aug–20 Aug
- Sample
- 738 LV
- Sponsor
- Not listed
- Pollster quality
- 0.913
- Admission
- Included in the model
Recorded corrections: sponsor −0.18 points; pollster −0.48 points.
The New York Times polling archive · first recorded by Call the Map 27 AugOpen poll source- Published result
- D+3.4
- Model read
- D+5.4
- Model weight
- 0.555
- Fieldwork
- 14 Aug–18 Aug
- Sample
- 1,187 LV
- Sponsor
- League of American Workers
- Pollster quality
- 0.931
- Admission
- Included in the model
Recorded corrections: sponsor +1.84 points; pollster +0.17 points.
The New York Times polling archive · first recorded by Call the Map 1 SepOpen poll source- Published result
- D+4.0
- Model read
- D+3.8
- Model weight
- 0.180
- Fieldwork
- 12 Aug–13 Aug
- Sample
- 500 LV
- Sponsor
- Badger Battleground Poll
- Pollster quality
- 0.550
- Admission
- Included in the model
Recorded corrections: sponsor −0.18 points; pollster 0.00 points.
The New York Times polling archive · first recorded by Call the Map 19 AugOpen poll source- Published result
- D+3.0
- Model read
- EVEN
- Model weight
- 0.172
- Fieldwork
- 30 Jul–3 Aug
- Sample
- 800 LV
- Sponsor
- Protect Our Wisconsin
- Pollster quality
- 0.576
- Admission
- Included in the model
Recorded corrections: sponsor −2.86 points; pollster −1.83 points.
The New York Times polling archive · first recorded by Call the Map 19 AugOpen poll source- Published result
- D+3.0
- Model read
- EVEN
- Model weight
- 0.107
- Fieldwork
- 20 Jul–24 Jul
- Sample
- 800 RV
- Sponsor
- Institute for Reforming Government | Napolitan News Service
- Pollster quality
- 0.500
- Admission
- Included in the model
Recorded corrections: sponsor −0.18 points; pollster −3.99 points.
The New York Times polling archive · first recorded by Call the Map 19 AugOpen poll source- Published result
- D+1.5
- Model read
- D+3.0
- Model weight
- 0.004
- Fieldwork
- 13 Mar–19 Mar
- Sample
- 1,168 LV
- Sponsor
- League of American Workers
- Pollster quality
- 0.931
- Admission
- Included in the model
Recorded corrections: sponsor +1.84 points; pollster +0.17 points.
The New York Times polling archive · first recorded by Call the Map 1 SepOpen poll sourceHow the margin was built
Follow each contribution to the margin. Wider ribbons mean more percentage points. Tap an input for its calculation and source.
The signed totals combine at the forecast. Displayed values are rounded.
All calculations & sources
How this state voted, 2024 −0.860 points
The state's two-party presidential margin in 2024, from our own county sums — the same measurement the model's statewide terrain center is built from. Every pull below is measured from here, not from EVEN, which is why a landslide seat's listed pulls are small numbers and still land where the forecast does.
- 2024 presidential result for this state, two-party, from Call the Map's own county sums.
- Same source as Act I's 2024-president reference mark, so the origin lands on it.
National environment +1.143 points
The contribution to this race’s margin, not the national polling margin itself. The race’s loading, reference level and polling blend determine how much of the national climate reaches its final forecast.
- The national environment in this edition is D+7.6. This row is its contribution to the race’s prior, not a claim that the country is D+1.1.
- The environment enters once, through the fitted governor elasticity: 0.4216 × (7.600 − 1.882, the environment the governor priors themselves imply) = +2.4; the producer rounds the contribution to +2.4.
- Polls receive 75.5% of the blend. They attenuate this contribution to +0.6 in the final center; the offset is included in the polling row.
- The elasticity is fitted on the pooled panel of contested governor races (2010–2024) with cycle-clustered standard errors; it is a measured response to the national environment, not a judgment floor.
Historical error calibration +0.935 points
A prior-election residual correction, when an admitted model publishes one.
- No separate historical residual correction is published in this governor edition.
This race’s polls +0.744 points
What this race’s own recent polling adds beyond its prior, after each poll is weighted for recency, sample size and pollster quality.
- 6 poll(s) / 5 pollster(s)
- The admitted polling average is D+3.7, after pollster, sample and recency adjustments.
- Polling contribution = 75.5% × (3.735 − prior 1.299) = +0.7 points after component rounding.
- The prior includes national environment and expert ratings. The blend is D+3.1 before the separately disclosed candidate and formula adjustments.
Fitted model, above the terrain shown +0.077 points
What the fitted model adds on top of the starting terrain above — incumbency, past results, campaign finance and the other fitted terms — measured from that terrain rather than from EVEN. It is a comparison with the starting point already shown, not a separate input. The source detail lists the variables the fit uses.
- Fitted baseline -0.783 minus starting point -0.860 = 0.077 points.
- Fitted intercept: -6.136 points.
- 2010 White population share used by the frozen historical fit: observed input 86.188. -0.503 × ((86.188 − 77.922) / 12.864) = -0.323 points.
- gov_midterm_wh: observed input -1.000. -0.987 × ((-1.000 − 0.336) / 0.739) = 1.785 points.
- 2024 presidential lean relative to the national result: observed input 0.627. 4.163 × ((0.627 − -4.415) / 20.258) = 1.036 points.
- Previous governor election margin: observed input 3.400. 1.755 × ((3.400 − -3.131) / 19.227) = 0.596 points.
- gov_inc_running_signed: observed input 0.000. 2.531 × ((0.000 − -0.120) / 0.708) = 0.428 points.
- gov_inc_tenure_signed: observed input 0.000. 3.340 × ((0.000 − -0.143) / 0.902) = 0.529 points.
- The displayed arithmetic is rounded; the fitted terms use full precision. The intercept plus these five terms gives the non-ratings baseline.
- No source-verified current Gallup reading supports the former 40% / July 2026 claim. The current Gallup series ends in 2025; the Presidency Project identifies its 2026 observations as other pollsters. Use the unchanged fitted missing-value rule, not a replacement polling scale.
- Certified 2024 presidential baseline: state R+0.9, national R+1.5; subtracting the national margin gives relative lean +0.6. Source: FEC compilation of certified state results.
The components this edition publishes for this race, in points. “Other factors” closes the sum to the two-party structural lean exactly. Here the structural lean IS the published margin, so the walk sums to the projection exactly; nothing is left over.
| Named factor | Contribution |
|---|---|
| National environmentThe national environment’s contribution to the prior. Polling can attenuate its influence; this value is not the national polling margin. | +1.14 |
| Historical calibrationThe House lane's calibration against certified past cycles. | +0.94 |
| FundamentalsThe admitted fitted baseline. Its surviving variables differ by office; the source detail above identifies those used for this race. | −0.78 |
| This race's pollsAdmitted head-to-head polls of this race, recency- and quality-weighted. | +0.74 |
| Other factors | 0.00 |
Race context
- Forecast votes cast
- 2,639,078
- Forecast turnout
- 58.3% of the voting-eligible population
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+0.9
Statewide, 58.7% of the voting-eligible population is projected to cast a ballot; the lower figure above is the share projected to vote in this race.
Population profile Select a measure for its source and denominator
U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 American Community Survey 5-year estimates ↗
Coverage
6 quotes
- U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany says he was returning from the La Crosse County Lincoln Day Dinner when the light aircraft lost power as it approached Wausau Downtown Airport. After the emergency landing, both Tiffany and the pilot were treated for minor injuries. ↗
MPR News · Official · 47m ago
curated newsroom · recent Bluesky post · named-race match - Rep. Tom Tiffany said he had to swim to safety after a plane he was traveling in made an emergency landing in a Wisconsin lake late Saturday. https://to.pbs.org/46TrwqL ↗
PBS News · Official · 4h ago
curated national newsroom · recent Bluesky post · named-race match - The Republican nominee for Wisconsin governor, Rep. Tom Tiffany, survived an emergency water landing and swam to safety after his plane lost power approaching a Wisconsin airport, he said Sunday on.wsj.com/4cIRP6w ↗
The Wall Street Journal · Official · 6h ago
curated newsroom · recent Bluesky post · named-race match - Tom Tiffany, a Republican congressman running for governor in Wisconsin, said he was treated for minor injuries after the plane lost power and ended up in Lake Wausau. ↗
HuffPost · Official · 8h ago
curated newsroom · recent Bluesky post · named-race match - Wisconsin congressman and Republican gubernatorial candidate Tom Tiffany said he suffered minor injuries after a plane he was in made an emergency landing Saturday night on Lake Wausau in central Wisconsin. https://cnn.it/4d1E0jR ↗
CNN · Official · 10h ago
curated national newsroom · recent Bluesky post · named-race match - As Wisconsin’s prison population soars to new records, GOP gubernatorial candidate Tom Tiffany backs expanding prison capacity. Democratic candidate David Crowley favors reducing prison time for nonviolent offenders and investing in rehabilitation.
Read more: wisconsinwatch.org/2026/09/repu... ↗
Wisconsin Watch · Official · Sep 4
curated state newsroom · recent Bluesky post · named-race match