The Governor · WisconsinOpen seat
Projected turnout: 2,531,324 votes · model estimate, not counted votes.
Displayed shares include the model's Other-vote allowance and therefore add to 100%. Interval endpoints are the model's 10th and 90th percentiles, not a polling margin of error.
SURE 45 · thin evidence
How reliable is the evidence behind this race's number — not who wins. A safe seat with no polls can score low while its forecast is easy.
| Effective poll evidence | 0.60 |
|---|---|
| Race-specific error SD | 6.1 points |
| Historically calibrated 80% half-range | ±7.5 |
| Model treatment | provisional widen-only chamber fallback |
| ✓ Fundamentals✓ Environment✓ Polls✗ Money (FEC)✓ Roster settled | |
SURE v3 — historically calibrated evidence-conditioned uncertainty · generated 2026-07-27. SURE rates the EVIDENCE behind a race's number, not the outcome: a safe seat with no polls can score low while its forecast is easy. Never a second win probability. It changes only idiosyncratic uncertainty, never the center. Senate marginal intervals are historically calibrated under the stated 0-120 day assumptions; House/Governor conditioning is provisional and widen-only until chamber-specific history passes the same gates.
County by county
Counties colored by the projected margin — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast above. Hover a county for its numbers.
| County | Margin | Francesca Hong | Tom Tiffany | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee | D+42.2 | 241,595 | 96,944 | 342,998 |
| Dane | D+54.6 | 207,320 | 59,581 | 270,416 |
| Waukesha | R+16.5 | 83,745 | 117,320 | 203,713 |
| Brown | R+3.7 | 52,456 | 56,517 | 110,408 |
| Outagamie | R+6.4 | 38,281 | 43,584 | 82,943 |
| Racine | R+1.8 | 38,585 | 39,985 | 79,605 |
| Winnebago | R+0.8 | 34,540 | 35,079 | 70,536 |
| Washington | R+33.6 | 21,993 | 44,697 | 67,568 |
| Kenosha | R+1.5 | 32,582 | 33,603 | 67,057 |
| Rock | D+12.2 | 36,229 | 28,231 | 65,309 |
| Marathon | R+14.8 | 24,455 | 33,100 | 58,313 |
| La Crosse | D+14.4 | 30,278 | 22,571 | 53,545 |
All 72 counties, largest projected vote pool first. Projected: the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast above. Model estimate, not counted votes.
State of the race
Call the Map currently has Hong ahead of Tiffany by D+3.0, with a 71 in 100 chance to win. This is an open seat. That result would keep the seat with Democrats. The current 2-poll average is D+2.4.
Open after Evers retired. Both nominations remain unsettled; the starred names are current polling leaders, and David Crowley re-entered the Democratic race July 18.
- CTM forecast
- Lean D hold · 71 in 100
- Seat
- Open · projected hold
- Forecast range
- R+3.3 to D+10.2
- Polling
- D+2.4 · 2 polls
How the race is moving
71%D win probability today
Since the Jul 21 edition: margin 5.3 pts toward D · win probability +34 pts D
Tracked editions only. The pale segment marks the time remaining to Election Day; it is not fabricated future data. Hover, tap, or focus a chart and use the arrow keys for each edition's exact values.
How the margin was built
Five contributions, summing to the forecast D+3.0. Every model adjustment is published here — including candidate-quality shifts. Read how the whole margin is built →
TWIN neighbours
TWIN means Typology-Weighted Inference from Neighbors, Call the Map’s comparable-unit matching engine for any kind of race. It borrows poll residuals only—never centers, terrain, or outcomes. Similarity is demographic and behavioural, not geographic, and each contribution decays with similarity distance. Borrowed evidence always has lower precision than a race’s own polling.
Signals at a glance
- 2024 presidential
- R+0.9
- Cook PVI
- Even
- Ratings consensus
- Cook: Toss Up · Sabato: Toss-up · Inside Elections: Toss-up
The Race Feed
1 story · 1 source post- Rodriguez quits Wisconsin’s Democratic governor primary amid campaign-finance problems
- Polling source · Wisconsin GovernorOpen on X ↗
Recent polling
2 polls · weighted average D+2 · source table → · Full polling for this race →
Money in this race
Campaign videos & ads
Campaign-video embeds are metadata-only editorial context from exact, reviewed channels; inclusion does not establish paid placement. Outside spending and campaign videos have zero forecast weight; direct PAC activity is reporting only.