Nebraska · U.S. Senate
Open this race on The Map ↗Pete Ricketts is favored to win. Projected candidate margin: Pete Ricketts over Dan Osborn by 11.1 points. No two-party forecast is published for this race: this race is between an independent and a major-party candidate, so the forecast is published per candidate rather than as a two-party margin.
Show all others (1)
Mike Marvin
Other is a combined forecast; individual estimates are not published.
Ballot eligibility alone supplies no quantitative estimate. Other is a collective share, not any named candidate’s forecast. Official ballot sources: Dan Osborn (checked 2026-08-31); Mike Marvin (checked 2026-08-31).
high / low: vote share (%) in the middle 80 in 100 simulations
About this field
Independent Dan Osborn runs again; Nebraska Democrats endorsed him rather than field a candidate. A win would be Independent, not Democratic.
Forecast share averages the simulated vote. Win chance counts how often a candidate wins. A wider range of outcomes can give a candidate a higher win chance despite a lower average share.
The polls
Polling average I+0.16 recorded polls · 6 eligible for the aggregate · 3 with positive weight
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Result | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| from 2026-08-09 | Impact Research ↗ | EVENI 47% · R 47% | 600 LV |
| from 2026-05-08 | Tavern Research ↗Contours Inc. | I+5.0I 47% · R 42% | 1,165 LV |
| from 2026-02-02 | Impact Research ↗ | R+1.0I 47% · R 48% | 600 LV |
| from 2025-12-11 | Lake Research Partners (D) ↗ | R+1.0I 47% · R 48% | 900 LV |
| from 2025-07-23 | Lake Research Partners (D) | I+1.0I 47% · R 46% | 900 LV |
| from 2025-03-28 | Change Research ↗ | R+1.0I 45% · R 46% | 524 LV |
How the partisan coordinate was built
Follow each contribution to the margin. Wider ribbons mean more percentage points. Tap an input for its calculation and source.
The signed totals combine at the forecast. Displayed values are rounded. This is a modeled partisan coordinate.
Pete Ricketts leads Dan Osborn by 11.1 points (forecast share difference). The named candidate forecast also accounts for the field and election rules; its lead is a separate quantity from the partisan coordinate above.
All calculations & sources
How this state voted, 2024 −20.570 points
The state's two-party presidential margin in 2024, from our own county sums — the same measurement the model's statewide terrain center is built from. Every pull below is measured from here, not from EVEN, which is why a landslide seat's listed pulls are small numbers and still land where the forecast does.
- 2024 presidential result for this state, two-party, from Call the Map's own county sums.
- Same source as Act I's 2024-president reference mark, so the origin lands on it.
This race’s polls +7.993 points
What this race’s own recent polling adds beyond its prior, after each poll is weighted for recency, sample size and pollster quality.
- 6 matchup-validated, sample/recency/grade-weighted poll(s), latest 2026-08-13
- Impact Research (2026-08-13, n=600): ±0.0 · weight 0.41
- Tavern Research (2026-05-11, n=1,165): D+5.0 · weight 0.03
- Impact Research (2026-02-05, n=600): R+1.0 · weight 0.00
- Lake Research Partners (D) (2025-12-17, n=900): R+1.0 · weight 0.00
- Lake Research Partners (D) (2025-07-29, n=900): D+1.0 · weight 0.00
- Change Research (2025-04-01, n=524): R+1.0 · weight 0.00
- Adjusted poll-bank aggregate D+0.1 · 6 recorded polls · 6 eligible for the aggregate · 3 with positive weight. The sealed model records a net polling contribution of +8.0 D. Observation weights are not the final model blend weight. Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-08-13 (27 days old).
- Adjusted poll-bank aggregate D+0.1 · 6 recorded polls · 6 eligible for the aggregate · 3 with positive weight; recorded polling contribution +8.0 D. These observation weights must not be read as the model’s final prior-versus-polling weight. Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-08-13 (27 days old).
Fitted model, above the terrain shown +1.774 points
What the fitted model adds on top of the starting terrain above — incumbency, past results, campaign finance and the other fitted terms — measured from that terrain rather than from EVEN. It is a comparison with the starting point already shown, not a separate input. The source detail lists the variables the fit uses.
- Fitted baseline -18.796 minus starting point -20.570 = 1.774 points.
- For orientation, the presidential results here: 2024 R+20.6, 2020 R+19.1.
- The work: the −18.8 D fundamentals push is the sum of the dynamic formula's surviving variables for this race — each one's own contribution is listed below.
- fundamentals core = 25-term dynamic formula (mass fit over the master feature matrix, held-out-cycle validated; see matrix/feature_dictionary.md + mass_fit_report.json)
- 9-term formula, held-out validated.
National environment +1.652 points
The contribution to this race’s margin, not the national polling margin itself. The race’s loading, reference level and polling blend determine how much of the national climate reaches its final forecast.
- Three-source blend, updated 2026-09-06: 52% generic-ballot aggregates (D+6.3) · 29% special-election overperformance (D+9.0 across 46 specials) · 20% approval-implied (D+8.6 from net approval -21.5).
- Latest polls — generic ballot 2026-09-06 (3 days old), approval 2026-09-07 (2 days old).
- Generic-ballot average D+6.3 · support factor 0.82 (the share of that channel's capacity the admitted polls carry) — separate inputs; their product is a capacity diagnostic, not a margin.
- Weights are the 55/25/20 capacities scaled by each channel's evidence and renormalized, so thin polling widens the interval instead of pulling the center toward zero — 17% of the weight is carried that way.
- Blended national environment: D+7.5.
- Applied at full strength to this chamber's races.
- The work: national environment × 1 chamber strength = +1.7 D of this margin.
- Blended national environment: D+7.5 (updated 2026-09-06).
- Effective poll weight 83%; fundamentals share 17%, carried by the interval (×1.08) rather than by the center.
- The support factor is the share of the generic-ballot capacity the admitted polls carry; average × support is a capacity diagnostic, not a margin, and is not what the row above multiplies.
- Applied at full strength to this chamber: +1.7 of this margin.
Structural safeguards −1.947 points
Bounded corrections that keep the model consistent with structural facts.
- Applied only when a safe state's dynamic fundamentals point in the same direction as its strong presidential lean but are materially compressed toward zero.
- The 25% correction toward that lean improved safe-race MAE in strict expanding-window validation without changing a historical call.
- The disclosed adjustment is −1.9 D.
These are the fitted model’s named contributions to the partisan coordinate, before the candidate-field calculation.
| Named factor | Contribution |
|---|---|
| FundamentalsThe admitted fitted baseline. Its surviving variables differ by office; the source detail above identifies those used for this race. | −18.80 |
| This race's pollsAdmitted head-to-head polls of this race, recency- and quality-weighted. | +7.99 |
| Structural terrain safeguardA bounded pull toward presidential terrain in heavily partisan states. | −1.95 |
| National environmentThe national environment’s contribution to the prior. Polling can attenuate its influence; this value is not the national polling margin. | +1.65 |
| Other factors | 0.00 |
Recent elections
| Election | Result | Votes cast |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 · U.S. Senate ↗ | R+44.0 | 930,012 |
| 2014 · U.S. Senate ↗ | R+34.3 | 540,337 |
| 2008 · U.S. Senate ↗ | R+17.9 | 792,511 |
| 2002 · U.S. Senate ↗ | R+69.9 | 480,217 |
Margins compare Democratic and Republican vote totals. Nonstandard ballots are labeled separately.
The money
Pete Ricketts ↗
R$11.2Mraised
$6.9M cash on handFiling through 06/30/2026
Dan Osborn ↗
I$5.8Mraised
$2.4M cash on handFiling through 06/30/2026
Bar length compares reported receipts in this race; the tick marks cash on hand. A missing filing stays blank rather than becoming $0.
One more fundraising reportCall the Map · $0
The candidates are comfortably out-fundraising the website covering them. A little rude, perhaps, but statistically unsurprising.
- Received so far
- $0
- Measured compute
- $26,188.58
Ko-fi and Buy Me a Coffee receipts are counted through Sep 1, 2026. Measured compute prices model runs at standard published API rates; it is not what I paid. Hosting, data and subscriptions, the domain and my own time are not counted. Donations buy gratitude, never a forecast adjustment.
Outside spending
Support + opposition · separate from receiptsFor and against Dan Osborn$1.3M
4 spending groups
| Group | For | Against |
|---|---|---|
| WORKING CLASS MAJORITY PAC, INC | $1.2M | $0 |
| SLF PAC | $0 | $100K |
| THE CONSERVATIVE CAUCUS DBA AMERICANS FOR CONSTITUTIONAL LIBERTY | $0 | $32K |
| Progressive Turnout Project | $13K | $0 |
For and against Pete Ricketts$1.6M
4 spending groups
| Group | For | Against |
|---|---|---|
| WORKING CLASS MAJORITY PAC, INC | $0 | $792K |
| FELLOWSHIP PAC | $350K | $0 |
| DEFENDING OUR VALUES PAC | $263K | $0 |
| SLF PAC | $157K | $0 |
Includes primary spending. Opposition is recorded against its named target; no benefit to another candidate is assumed.
$559K in outside spending on earlier candidates.
No filing matched: Mike Marvin.
FEC filings · through 06/30/2026 · Definitions & method
Race context
- Forecast votes cast
- 669,520
- Forecast turnout
- 47.6% of the voting-eligible population
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+20.8
Statewide, 48.8% of the voting-eligible population is projected to cast a ballot; the lower figure above is the share projected to vote in this race.
Population profile Select a measure for its source and denominator
U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 American Community Survey 5-year estimates ↗