Nebraska · Governor
Jim Pillen is heavily favored to hold the Nebraska governorship. Predicted margin: R+5.9.
Show all others (1)
Rick Beard
Other is a combined forecast; individual estimates are not published.
Ballot eligibility alone supplies no quantitative estimate. Other is a collective share, not any named candidate’s forecast. Official ballot sources: Rick Beard (checked 2026-08-31).
Under each share, its likely range (80 in 100 simulations) · * incumbent
Forecast history
Latest reading · Oct 28 · first published Oct 6 · 80% range · margin points R+13.0 to D+1.2. Methodology
About this series
Reconstructed with the current model Aug 1 – Oct 5; published readings Oct 6 – Oct 28. Each reconstructed day is the current model on that day’s own inputs, not a forecast published then. Corrections are dated in the changelog.
Faded: CTMM 2.2 reconstructed history: computed after the fact with each date's available polls and environment, without expert ratings; not an issued forecast. Issued forecasts begin at the launch marker.
CTMM 2.2 readings for 2026-09-16, 2026-09-17, 2026-09-18 were computed after the fact with each day's available inputs: no edition was issued on those days. Not an issued forecast.
Data table
| Date | Margin | Chance | 80% range | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 | R+5.9 | R win 85.2% | R+13.0 to D+1.2 | Published forecast |
| Oct 27 | R+5.5 | R win 83.4% | R+12.6 to D+1.6 | Published forecast |
| Oct 26 | R+5.5 | R win 83.5% | R+12.6 to D+1.6 | Published forecast |
| Oct 25 | R+6.1 | R win 85.9% | R+13.2 to D+1.0 | Published forecast |
| Oct 24 | R+6.2 | R win 86.0% | R+13.3 to D+1.0 | Published forecast |
| Oct 23 | R+6.2 | R win 79.7% | R+13.4 to D+1.0 | Published forecast |
| Oct 22 | R+6.1 | R win 78.7% | R+13.2 to D+1.1 | Published forecast |
| Oct 21 | R+6.1 | R win 78.9% | R+13.3 to D+1.1 | Published forecast |
| Oct 20 | R+8.1 | R win 87.7% | R+15.3 to R+0.9 | Published forecast |
| Oct 19 | R+8.1 | R win 87.8% | R+15.3 to R+0.9 | Published forecast |
| Oct 18 | R+8.2 | R win 87.9% | R+15.4 to R+1.0 | Published forecast |
| Oct 17 | R+8.2 | R win 87.9% | R+15.4 to R+1.0 | Published forecast |
| Oct 16 | R+8.3 | R win 88.6% | R+15.6 to R+1.1 | Published forecast |
| Oct 15 | R+7.9 | R win 88.2% | R+15.0 to R+0.7 | Published forecast |
| Oct 14 | R+7.9 | R win 88.2% | R+15.1 to R+0.7 | Published forecast |
| Oct 13 | R+7.9 | R win 89.1% | R+15.1 to R+0.8 | Published forecast |
| Oct 12 | R+8.5 | R win 89.8% | R+15.8 to R+1.3 | Published forecast |
| Oct 11 | R+8.5 | R win 89.8% | R+15.8 to R+1.3 | Published forecast |
| Oct 10 | R+8.6 | R win 89.8% | R+15.8 to R+1.3 | Published forecast |
| Oct 9 | R+8.6 | R win 90.0% | R+15.9 to R+1.4 | Published forecast |
| Oct 8 | R+8.7 | R win 89.9% | R+15.9 to R+1.4 | Published forecast |
| Oct 7 | R+8.7 | R win 90.0% | R+15.9 to R+1.5 | Published forecast |
| Oct 6 | R+10.1 | R win 91.5% | R+17.5 to R+2.7 | Published forecast |
| Oct 5 | R+10.2 | R win 92.0% | R+17.6 to R+2.8 | Recomputed with the current model |
| Oct 4 | R+10.2 | R win 92.0% | R+17.6 to R+2.8 | Recomputed with the current model |
| Oct 3 | R+10.2 | R win 92.3% | R+17.6 to R+2.8 | Recomputed with the current model |
| Oct 2 | R+10.3 | R win 92.1% | R+17.6 to R+2.9 | Recomputed with the current model |
| Oct 1 | R+11.4 | R win 93.7% | R+19.0 to R+3.8 | Recomputed with the current model |
| Sep 30 | R+11.4 | R win 93.9% | R+19.0 to R+3.9 | Recomputed with the current model |
| Sep 29 | R+11.5 | R win 93.9% | R+19.1 to R+3.9 | Recomputed with the current model |
| Sep 28 | R+13.6 | R win 96.8% | R+21.3 to R+5.8 | Recomputed with the current model |
| Sep 27 | R+13.6 | R win 96.8% | R+21.3 to R+5.9 | Recomputed with the current model |
| Sep 26 | R+13.6 | R win 96.9% | R+21.3 to R+5.9 | Recomputed with the current model |
| Sep 25 | R+13.6 | R win 96.9% | R+21.4 to R+5.9 | Recomputed with the current model |
| Sep 24 | R+13.7 | R win 96.9% | R+21.4 to R+5.9 | Recomputed with the current model |
| Sep 23 | R+13.7 | R win 96.8% | R+21.4 to R+6.0 | Recomputed with the current model |
| Sep 22 | R+13.7 | R win 96.9% | R+21.5 to R+6.0 | Recomputed with the current model |
| Sep 21 | R+13.7 | R win 97.0% | R+21.5 to R+6.0 | Recomputed with the current model |
| Sep 20 | R+13.8 | R win 96.9% | R+21.5 to R+6.0 | Recomputed with the current model |
| Sep 19 | R+13.8 | R win 97.0% | R+21.5 to R+6.1 | Recomputed with the current model |
| Sep 18 | R+13.8 | R win 97.7% | R+21.5 to R+6.1 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 17 | R+13.8 | R win 97.7% | R+21.6 to R+6.1 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 16 | R+13.9 | R win 97.5% | R+21.6 to R+6.1 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 15 | R+11.7 | R win 95.8% | R+19.8 to R+3.6 | Recomputed with the current model |
| Sep 14 | R+11.7 | R win 95.8% | R+19.8 to R+3.6 | Recomputed with the current model |
| Sep 13 | R+11.7 | R win 95.4% | R+20.1 to R+3.2 | Recomputed with the current model |
| Sep 12 | R+11.7 | R win 95.4% | R+20.1 to R+3.2 | Recomputed with the current model |
| Sep 11 | R+11.7 | R win 95.4% | R+20.1 to R+3.2 | Recomputed with the current model |
| Sep 10 | R+11.7 | R win 95.4% | R+20.1 to R+3.2 | Recomputed with the current model |
| Sep 9 | R+11.7 | R win 95.4% | R+20.2 to R+3.3 | Recomputed with the current model |
| Sep 8 | R+11.7 | R win 95.4% | R+20.2 to R+3.3 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 7 | R+11.7 | R win 95.5% | R+20.2 to R+3.3 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 6 | R+11.7 | R win 95.5% | R+20.2 to R+3.3 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 5 | R+11.8 | R win 95.5% | R+20.2 to R+3.3 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 4 | R+11.8 | R win 95.5% | R+20.2 to R+3.3 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 3 | R+11.8 | R win 95.5% | R+20.3 to R+3.3 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 2 | R+11.8 | R win 95.5% | R+20.3 to R+3.3 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 1 | R+11.8 | R win 95.5% | R+20.3 to R+3.3 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 31 | R+11.8 | R win 95.5% | R+20.3 to R+3.3 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 30 | R+11.8 | R win 95.5% | R+20.3 to R+3.3 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 29 | R+11.8 | R win 95.5% | R+20.3 to R+3.3 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 28 | R+11.8 | R win 95.5% | R+20.3 to R+3.3 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 27 | R+11.8 | R win 95.5% | R+20.3 to R+3.3 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 26 | R+11.8 | R win 95.5% | R+20.3 to R+3.3 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 25 | R+11.8 | R win 95.5% | R+20.3 to R+3.3 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 24 | R+11.8 | R win 95.5% | R+20.3 to R+3.3 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 23 | R+11.8 | R win 95.5% | R+20.4 to R+3.3 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 22 | R+11.9 | R win 95.5% | R+20.4 to R+3.3 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 21 | R+11.9 | R win 95.5% | R+20.4 to R+3.4 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 20 | R+11.9 | R win 95.5% | R+20.4 to R+3.4 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 19 | R+11.9 | R win 95.5% | R+20.4 to R+3.4 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 18 | R+11.9 | R win 95.5% | R+20.4 to R+3.4 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 17 | R+11.9 | R win 95.5% | R+20.4 to R+3.4 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 16 | R+11.9 | R win 95.6% | R+20.5 to R+3.4 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 15 | R+11.9 | R win 95.6% | R+20.5 to R+3.4 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 14 | R+12.0 | R win 95.6% | R+20.5 to R+3.4 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 13 | R+12.0 | R win 95.6% | R+20.5 to R+3.5 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 12 | R+12.0 | R win 95.6% | R+20.5 to R+3.5 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 11 | R+12.0 | R win 95.6% | R+20.6 to R+3.5 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 10 | R+12.0 | R win 95.6% | R+20.6 to R+3.5 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 9 | R+12.1 | R win 95.6% | R+20.6 to R+3.5 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 8 | R+12.1 | R win 95.7% | R+20.6 to R+3.5 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 7 | R+12.1 | R win 95.7% | R+20.7 to R+3.5 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 6 | R+12.2 | R win 95.7% | R+20.7 to R+3.6 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 5 | R+12.2 | R win 95.8% | R+20.7 to R+3.6 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 4 | R+12.2 | R win 95.8% | R+20.8 to R+3.6 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 3 | R+12.2 | R win 95.8% | R+20.8 to R+3.7 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 2 | R+12.3 | R win 95.8% | R+20.8 to R+3.7 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 1 | R+12.3 | R win 95.8% | R+20.8 to R+3.7 | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
The polls
Poll average R+2.5A poll’s weight halves every 60 days and grows with its sample. Each pollster counts once, at its best release. Every poll counts at its published margin, sponsored or not.In governor races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at R+3.2. It then applies a fitted correction of 2.5 points toward Republicans for governor races, measured from past polling error, before blending it with its other evidence.15 recorded polls · 13 in the poll average
| Fieldwork | Added | Pollster | Result | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| from 2026-10-16 | 1d ago | Echelon Insights ↗ | R+7.0D 40% · R 47% | 407 LV |
| from 2026-10-15 | 2d ago | Concord Public Opinion Partners ↗ | D+3.0D 43% · R 40% | 500 LV |
| from 2026-10-13 | 5d ago | Global Strategy Group ↗ | R+1.0D 39% · R 40% | 800 LV |
| from 2026-10-15 | 6d ago | National Public Affairs ↗ | R+6.0D 41% · R 47% | 598 LV |
| from 2026-10-02 | National Public Affairs ↗ | R+4.0D 40% · R 44% | 800 LV | |
| from 2026-10-13 | Public Policy Polling ↗ | R+2.0D 46% · R 48% | 571 LV | |
| from 2026-09-24 | YouGov ↗ | R+1.0D 43% · R 44% | 1,808 LV | |
| from 2026-09-28 | co/efficient ↗ | R+4.0D 38% · R 42% | 1,113 LV |
Explore each poll’s weight in the average
Poll average R+2.5
- Published result
- R+7.0
- Weight in the poll average
- 0.52 · 10% of the average
- Fieldwork
- 16 Oct–23 Oct
- Sample
- 407 LV
- Sponsor
- Not listed
- Published result
- D+3.0
- Weight in the poll average
- 0.54 · 11% of the average
- Fieldwork
- 15 Oct–18 Oct
- Sample
- 500 LV
- Sponsor
- Democratic sponsor · organization not listed
- Published result
- R+1.0
- Weight in the poll average
- 0.69 · 13% of the average
- Fieldwork
- 13 Oct–18 Oct
- Sample
- 800 LV
- Sponsor
- Democratic sponsor · organization not listed
- Published result
- R+6.0
- Weight in the poll average
- 0.59 · 5.8% of the average
- Fieldwork
- 15 Oct–18 Oct
- Sample
- 598 LV
- Sponsor
- Republican sponsor · organization not listed
- Published result
- R+2.0
- Weight in the poll average
- 0.55 · 6.2% of the average
- Fieldwork
- 13 Oct–14 Oct
- Sample
- 571 LV
- Sponsor
- Democratic sponsor · organization not listed
- Published result
- R+4.0
- Weight in the poll average
- 0.59 · 5.7% of the average
- Fieldwork
- 2 Oct–5 Oct
- Sample
- 800 LV
- Sponsor
- Republican sponsor · organization not listed
- Published result
- R+1.0
- Weight in the poll average
- 0.75 · 15% of the average
- Fieldwork
- 24 Sep–3 Oct
- Sample
- 1,808 LV
- Sponsor
- Not listed
- Published result
- R+4.0
- Weight in the poll average
- 0.66 · 13% of the average
- Fieldwork
- 28 Sep–30 Sep
- Sample
- 1,113 LV
- Sponsor
- Not listed
How the candidate lead was built
Tap an input for its calculation and source.
Displayed values are rounded.
The two-party D-versus-R coordinate, step by step
The walk above decomposes the published candidate lead. The model also carries a latent Democrat-minus-Republican coordinate, which is the quantity chamber seat and control arithmetic runs on. It is shown here at the same steps as a secondary reading, not as this race’s published forecast margin.
| After this step | D−R coordinate |
|---|---|
| Fundamentals | R+18.9 |
| National environment | R+17.3 |
| Campaign finance | R+17.3 |
| This race’s polls | R+7.7 |
| Election rules & guards | R+7.7 |
| Historical calibration | R+8.2 |
| The candidate field | R+8.2 |
All calculations & sources
This race’s polls +8.828 points
What this race’s admitted polls move the leader-versus-runner-up gap by.
National environment +1.477 points
How much of the national climate reaches this race’s leader-versus-runner-up gap.
The candidate field +0.561 points
What the field itself contributes: the third principals on the ballot and the election rule, which a two-party coordinate has nowhere to put.
Fundamentals −17.436 points
What the fitted structural model contributes to the gap between the leader and the runner-up, before any of this cycle’s evidence.
Historical calibration −0.395 points
The calibration term fitted on past cycles, carried onto this gap.
The components this edition publishes for this race, in points. “Other factors” closes the sum to the two-party structural lean exactly. The margin the page prints is a share of every vote cast, so the “Votes for other candidates” row carries the exact difference between the two-party lean and that margin; with it, the walk sums to the printed margin exactly.
| Named factor | Contribution |
|---|---|
| FundamentalsThe admitted fitted baseline. Its surviving variables differ by office; the source detail above identifies those used for this race. | −18.89 |
| This race's pollsAdmitted head-to-head polls of this race, recency- and quality-weighted. | +11.10 |
| National environmentThe national environment’s contribution to the prior. Polling can attenuate its influence; this value is not the national polling margin. | +1.83 |
| Historical calibrationThe House lane's calibration against certified past cycles. | −0.15 |
| Other factors | 0.00 |
Where the votes are
The map of this race loads here.
Race context
- Turnout, 2018 midterm
- 50.8% 706,652 ballots
- Turnout, 2022 midterm
- 48.5% 682,716 ballots
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+20.8between the two parties
Turnout is ballots cast statewide as a share of the voting-eligible population. Source: University of Florida Election Lab ↗
Population profile
U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 American Community Survey 5-year estimates ↗
Coverage
1 quote
- Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen has requested a federal disaster declaration for severe flooding in eight counties in southeast Nebraska that occurred between Sept. 30 and Oct. 6.
From Zach Wendling buff.ly/Pomu4NT ↗
Nebraska Examiner · Official · 1d ago
curated state newsroom · recent Bluesky post · named-race match
Forecast as of October 28, 2026: Call the Map currently has Jim Pillen ahead of Lynne Walz by R+5.9, with an 85 in 100 chance to win. The seat is currently held by a Republican. That result would keep the seat with Republicans. The current poll average is R+2.5; 15 public polls are recorded.