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FORECAST51 DAYS OUT
← Senate3 November 2026 · 51 days out

Alaska · U.S. Senate

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Dan S. Sullivan has a 54.9% chance of winning after ranked-choice transfers. No final-round margin is published.

Dan S. Sullivan (R)55 in 10054.9%48.5high 54.1 · low 42.9
Mary Peltola (D)45 in 10045.1%47.0high 52.7 · low 41.2
Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. (O)<1 in 100<0.1%3.1high 6.0 · low 1.0
Show all others (1)
David B. Leslie (D)<1 in 100<0.1%1.4high 2.6 · low 0.4

high / low: vote share (%) in the middle 80 in 100 simulations · shares are first-choice votes; winning chances include ranked-choice transfers, not a published final-round margin

About this field

Ex-Rep. Mary Peltola challenges Sen. Sullivan; ranked-choice voting keeps it live.

Forecast share averages the simulated vote. Win chance counts how often a candidate wins. A wider range of outcomes can give a candidate a higher win chance despite a lower average share.

Tilt RRepublican-held seat

The polls

Ledger weighted average D+2.1Used by the forecast: 8 polls (60-day half-life) · measured D+3.2 · after the fitted poll-error shift D+1.611 recorded polls · 9 eligible for the aggregate · 8 with positive weight

FieldworkAddedPollsterResultSample
from 2026-07-28Data for Progress ↗D+6.0D 47% · R 41%605 LV
from 2026-06-15The New York Times/Siena University ↗R+2.4D 45.06% · R 47.47%593 LV
from 2026-06-04Alaska Survey Research ↗D+5.2D 49.4% · R 44.2%1,393 LV
from 2026-05-14Alaska Survey Research ↗D+4.6D 48.4% · R 43.8%1,401 LV
from 2026-01-16Public Policy Polling ↗DSCCDisplay-only · excluded from aggregateD+2.0D 49% · R 47%611 RV
from 2026-01-08Alaska Survey Research ↗D+1.6D 48% · R 46.4%1,681 LV
from 2025-10-17Data for Progress ↗Display-only · excluded from aggregateD+1.0D 46% · R 45%823 RV
from 2025-10-10Alaska Survey Research ↗D+1.8D 47.7% · R 45.9%1,708 LV
Explore all 11 polls for this race

How the candidate lead was built

Follow each contribution to the margin. Wider ribbons mean more percentage points. Tap an input for its calculation and source.

Toward D+9.1
Toward R−10.6
Candidate leadR+1.5

The signed totals combine at the forecast. Displayed values are rounded. This is the model coordinate before ranked-choice transfers.

Winning chances include ranked-choice transfers. No final-round margin is published.

The two-party D-versus-R coordinate, step by step

The walk above decomposes the published candidate lead. The model also carries a latent Democrat-minus-Republican coordinate, which is the quantity chamber seat and control arithmetic runs on. It is shown here at the same steps, as a secondary reading — it is not this race’s published forecast margin.

After this stepD−R coordinate
FundamentalsR+9.7
National environmentR+7.7
Campaign financeR+7.7
This race’s pollsR+0.2
Expert ratingsR+0.2
Election rules & guardsR+0.2
Historical calibrationR+0.2
The candidate fieldR+0.2
All calculations & sources

This race’s polls +7.160 points

What this race’s admitted polls move the leader-versus-runner-up gap by.

National environment +1.899 points

How much of the national climate reaches this race’s leader-versus-runner-up gap.

Fundamentals −9.259 points

What the fitted structural model contributes to the gap between the leader and the runner-up, before any of this cycle’s evidence.

The candidate field −1.320 points

What the field itself contributes: the third principals on the ballot and the election rule, which a two-party coordinate has nowhere to put.

Election rules & guards −0.005 points

Certified election-mechanics terms — ballot rules, guards and locks — as they bear on these two candidates.

These are the fitted model’s named contributions to the partisan coordinate, before the candidate-field calculation.

Named factorContribution
FundamentalsThe admitted fitted baseline. Its surviving variables differ by office; the source detail above identifies those used for this race.−9.69
This race's pollsAdmitted head-to-head polls of this race, recency- and quality-weighted.+7.50
National environmentThe national environment’s contribution to the prior. Polling can attenuate its influence; this value is not the national polling margin.+1.99
Other factors−0.00

Recent elections

ElectionResultVotes cast
2020 · U.S. Senate ↗R+13.4354,587
2014 · U.S. Senate ↗R+2.3282,400
2008 · U.S. Senate ↗D+1.3317,723
2002 · U.S. Senate ↗R+76.3229,548

Margins compare Democratic and Republican vote totals. Nonstandard ballots are labeled separately.

The money

David B. Leslie

D

No filingrecorded

— cash on handFiling date unavailable

Bar length compares reported receipts in this race; the tick marks cash on hand. A missing filing stays blank rather than becoming $0.

One more fundraising reportCall the Map · $0

The candidates are comfortably out-fundraising the website covering them. A little rude, perhaps, but statistically unsurprising.

Received so far
$0
Measured compute
$26,188.58

Ko-fi and Buy Me a Coffee receipts are counted through Sep 1, 2026. Measured compute prices model runs at standard published API rates; it is not what I paid. Hosting, data and subscriptions, the domain and my own time are not counted. Donations buy gratitude, never a forecast adjustment.

Ko-fi ↗Buy Me a Coffee ↗

See the public support ledger →

Outside spending

Support + opposition · separate from receipts

For and against Mary Peltola$9.7M

11 spending groups
GroupForAgainst
LAST FRONTIER PAC$0$5.2M
Forward Alaska$1.3M$0
SLF PAC$0$1.2M
MIDNIGHT SUN PAC$581K$0
Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. (AFP Action) DBA CVA Action and DBA LIBRE Action$0$476K
One For All Committee$470K$0
EDW Action Fund$254K$0
America PAC$0$146K
North Star$50K$0
SEIU COPE (Service Employees International Union Committee On Political Education)$11K$0
Blue Fight PAC$5K$0

For and against Dan S. Sullivan$7.8M

8 spending groups
GroupForAgainst
North Star$0$2.1M
Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. (AFP Action) DBA CVA Action and DBA LIBRE Action$1.7M$0
AB PAC$0$1.5M
Right for Alaska$0$1.1M
WinSenate$0$1000K
SLF PAC$225K$0
America PAC$80K$0
Indivisible Action$0$15K

Includes primary spending. Opposition is recorded against its named target; no benefit to another candidate is assumed.

$1.0M in outside spending on earlier candidates.

FEC filings · through 07/29/2026 · Definitions & method

Race context

Forecast votes cast
259,668
Forecast turnout
47.8% of the voting-eligible population
2024 presidential margin
R+13.7

Statewide, 48.4% of the voting-eligible population is projected to cast a ballot; the lower figure above is the share projected to vote in this race.

Population profile Select a measure for its source and denominator

White alone · 61.3%450,472 of 734,821 · Residents2022 Census · matched race geography
Demographic source and limits

U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 American Community Survey 5-year estimates ↗

Coverage

9 stories · 6 quotes

All coverage and full posts on the Wire →