Senate
This chamber is not elected on party lines the model can score, so no D-vs-R control forecast is published for it.
See all 20 districts →One state, every federal race and the provisional balance of power in its capitol.
Alaska reports by state house district. Counties colored by the projected margin — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast above. Hover a county for its numbers.
| House District 6 | 4,455 (47.6%) | 4,676 (49.9%) | R+2.4 | 9,365 |
| House District 9 | 5,258 (56.9%) | 3,748 (40.6%) | D+16.3 | 9,237 |
| House District 3 | 5,459 (63.0%) | 2,992 (34.5%) | D+28.5 | 8,668 |
| House District 8 | 2,487 (29.5%) | 5,735 (68.0%) | R+38.5 | 8,433 |
| House District 23 | 3,858 (46.3%) | 4,273 (51.2%) | R+5.0 | 8,339 |
| House District 29 | 2,622 (32.0%) | 5,367 (65.5%) | R+33.5 | 8,194 |
| House District 25 | 3,034 (37.2%) | 4,925 (60.3%) | R+23.2 | 8,163 |
| House District 30 | 2,594 (32.3%) | 5,248 (65.2%) | R+33.0 | 8,043 |
| House District 24 | 3,082 (39.0%) | 4,617 (58.5%) | R+19.4 | 7,896 |
| House District 34 | 3,527 (45.1%) | 4,092 (52.4%) | R+7.2 | 7,814 |
| House District 11 | 4,196 (54.6%) | 3,291 (42.9%) | D+11.8 | 7,679 |
| House District 35 | 4,428 (58.3%) | 2,977 (39.2%) | D+19.1 | 7,595 |
| House District 16 | 4,748 (62.9%) | 2,609 (34.6%) | D+28.3 | 7,546 |
| House District 7 | 2,426 (32.4%) | 4,886 (65.2%) | R+32.8 | 7,499 |
| House District 36 | 3,335 (44.5%) | 3,969 (53.0%) | R+8.4 | 7,491 |
| House District 2 | 4,179 (56.0%) | 3,097 (41.5%) | D+14.5 | 7,463 |
| House District 26 | 1,968 (26.7%) | 5,221 (70.8%) | R+44.1 | 7,373 |
| House District 15 | 3,958 (54.6%) | 3,114 (42.9%) | D+11.6 | 7,253 |
| House District 28 | 2,162 (29.9%) | 4,899 (67.6%) | R+37.8 | 7,242 |
| House District 4 | 5,318 (73.5%) | 1,736 (24.0%) | D+49.5 | 7,235 |
| House District 21 | 4,216 (59.7%) | 2,665 (37.8%) | D+22.0 | 7,057 |
| House District 27 | 1,772 (25.6%) | 4,970 (71.9%) | R+46.3 | 6,915 |
| House District 33 | 1,967 (28.4%) | 4,774 (69.0%) | R+40.6 | 6,914 |
| House District 10 | 3,704 (54.2%) | 2,964 (43.3%) | D+10.8 | 6,839 |
| House District 1 | 3,142 (46.9%) | 3,390 (50.6%) | R+3.7 | 6,699 |
| House District 12 | 3,750 (56.4%) | 2,729 (41.1%) | D+15.4 | 6,645 |
| House District 5 | 3,087 (49.3%) | 3,016 (48.2%) | D+1.1 | 6,259 |
| House District 17 | 4,317 (71.7%) | 1,555 (25.8%) | D+45.8 | 6,023 |
| House District 13 | 3,336 (56.4%) | 2,429 (41.1%) | D+15.3 | 5,913 |
| House District 14 | 3,828 (66.1%) | 1,822 (31.4%) | D+34.6 | 5,795 |
| House District 20 | 3,502 (61.8%) | 2,027 (35.7%) | D+26.0 | 5,671 |
| House District 31 | 2,958 (54.1%) | 2,370 (43.4%) | D+10.8 | 5,465 |
| House District 32 | 1,795 (39.2%) | 2,667 (58.3%) | R+19.0 | 4,576 |
| House District 22 | 2,405 (56.4%) | 1,751 (41.1%) | D+15.3 | 4,263 |
| House District 19 | 2,513 (64.1%) | 1,311 (33.4%) | D+30.7 | 3,922 |
| House District 18 | 1,796 (47.8%) | 1,869 (49.7%) | R+2.0 | 3,759 |
| House District 37 | 1,781 (52.5%) | 1,529 (45.0%) | D+7.4 | 3,395 |
| House District 39 | 2,026 (61.7%) | 1,174 (35.8%) | D+26.0 | 3,282 |
| House District 38 | 1,931 (62.0%) | 1,108 (35.5%) | D+26.4 | 3,117 |
| House District 40 | 1,301 (50.6%) | 1,205 (46.9%) | D+3.7 | 2,570 |
Model benchmark — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast.
Alaska reports by state house district. Counties colored by the projected margin — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast above. Hover a county for its numbers.
Senate and House are not elected on party lines the model can score.
This chamber is not elected on party lines the model can score, so no D-vs-R control forecast is published for it.
See all 20 districts →This chamber is not elected on party lines the model can score, so no D-vs-R control forecast is published for it.
See all 40 districts →Chamber-by-chamber detail for every state lives on the full Chamber Board. Control today: NCSL · 2026 State & Legislative Partisan Composition · Jan. 27, 2026
Alaska reports by state house district. Counties colored by the actual 2024 presidential result — counted votes, not a projection. Hover a county for its numbers.
The county tables and shift arrows across this site measure against these baselines. No president is on the 2026 ballot; this is the reference line every other race here is measured against.
Ballot measures — coming with the Ballotpedia layer.
Trifecta nowSplit control
| Chamber | Now | Projected |
|---|---|---|
| Senate | OTH | OTH |
| House | OTH | OTH |