Alaska

SenateD+1.0

U.S. House · projectedD 0 · R 1

GovernorD+22.4

2024 presidentR+13.8

Forecast as of October 28, 2026. U.S. Senate: Mary Peltola ahead of Dan S. Sullivan, with a 52 in 100 chance of winning after ranked-choice transfers. Projected final round: Mary Peltola 50.1, Dan S. Sullivan 49.9 (of ballots still counting). Governor: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins ahead of Bernadette Wilson, with an 87 in 100 chance of winning after ranked-choice transfers. Projected final round: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 53.8, Bernadette Wilson 46.2 (of ballots still counting). In 16 in 100 simulations the final round is Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins against Dave Bronson instead. U.S. House: Republicans are favored in the state's one district.

Closest races

U.S. SenateMary Peltola vs. Dan S. Sullivan · Gerald L. HeikesToss-upD+1.0 AK-ALNick Begich vs. Eric Hafner vs. James C. McDermottLean RR+11.5 GovernorFlipJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins vs. Bernadette Wilson · Dave Bronson · Treg TaylorLikely DD+22.4

Projected delegation: D 0 · R 1

AK-ALNick Begich vs. Eric Hafner vs. James C. McDermottLean RR+11.5

How Alaska decides its electionsone exception

U.S. Senate · U.S. House · GovernorAlaska — top-four primary, ranked-choice generalOur two-party margin is READ AS the final ranked-choice round rather than computed as one. There is no transfer model and no exhausted-ballot allowance: four federal ranked-choice races since 2020 is too little evidence to fit that behaviour, and the model lane's own ledger parks it for that reason. The first-choice ordering is therefore unforecast.