Senate
Chance of R control>99 in 100
Republicans are favored to hold control. Republicans hold 28 of 40 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 11.8 of 40 · 80% range 10–13
See all 40 districts →One state, every federal race and the provisional balance of power in its capitol.
Counties colored by the projected margin — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast above. Hover a county for its numbers.
| Miami-Dade | 328,828 (44.7%) | 399,491 (54.2%) | R+9.6 | 736,420 |
| Broward | 345,406 (58.7%) | 236,751 (40.2%) | D+18.5 | 588,632 |
| Palm Beach | 253,844 (50.6%) | 242,554 (48.3%) | D+2.2 | 501,919 |
| Hillsborough | 219,687 (48.6%) | 227,640 (50.3%) | R+1.8 | 452,302 |
| Orange | 232,475 (56.9%) | 171,721 (42.0%) | D+14.9 | 408,692 |
| Pinellas | 164,576 (47.3%) | 179,621 (51.6%) | R+4.3 | 348,025 |
| Duval | 155,932 (49.2%) | 157,783 (49.7%) | R+0.6 | 317,204 |
| Lee | 94,821 (35.9%) | 166,472 (63.0%) | R+27.1 | 264,199 |
| Brevard | 95,899 (39.4%) | 144,712 (59.5%) | R+20.1 | 243,287 |
| Polk | 92,989 (39.6%) | 139,283 (59.3%) | R+19.7 | 234,855 |
| Pasco | 79,845 (37.2%) | 132,150 (61.7%) | R+24.4 | 214,353 |
| Volusia | 81,757 (39.1%) | 124,934 (59.8%) | R+20.7 | 208,990 |
| Sarasota | 76,536 (40.9%) | 108,429 (58.0%) | R+17.1 | 187,022 |
| Seminole | 82,246 (48.2%) | 86,651 (50.7%) | R+2.6 | 170,776 |
| Manatee | 58,911 (38.2%) | 93,435 (60.7%) | R+22.4 | 154,040 |
| Lake | 57,289 (37.5%) | 93,675 (61.4%) | R+23.8 | 152,643 |
| Collier | 48,802 (33.5%) | 95,227 (65.4%) | R+31.9 | 145,631 |
| Marion | 49,137 (34.1%) | 93,387 (64.8%) | R+30.7 | 144,109 |
| St. Johns | 45,400 (34.2%) | 86,040 (64.7%) | R+30.6 | 132,902 |
| St. Lucie | 56,665 (45.5%) | 66,573 (53.4%) | R+8.0 | 124,609 |
| Osceola | 57,702 (49.6%) | 57,312 (49.3%) | D+0.3 | 116,293 |
| Escambia | 43,885 (40.1%) | 64,458 (58.8%) | R+18.8 | 109,548 |
| Leon | 64,180 (60.8%) | 40,199 (38.1%) | D+22.7 | 105,540 |
| Alachua | 55,543 (60.4%) | 35,355 (38.5%) | D+22.0 | 91,909 |
| Clay | 25,725 (30.1%) | 58,687 (68.8%) | R+38.6 | 85,351 |
| Charlotte | 27,479 (33.0%) | 54,848 (65.9%) | R+32.9 | 83,243 |
| Okaloosa | 21,795 (28.5%) | 53,850 (70.4%) | R+41.9 | 76,486 |
| Santa Rosa | 18,345 (24.2%) | 56,494 (74.7%) | R+50.4 | 75,671 |
| Hernando | 23,410 (31.4%) | 50,272 (67.5%) | R+36.1 | 74,502 |
| Sumter | 21,986 (31.0%) | 48,055 (67.9%) | R+36.8 | 70,820 |
| Indian River | 24,165 (36.3%) | 41,748 (62.6%) | R+26.4 | 66,646 |
| Martin | 22,763 (34.4%) | 42,667 (64.5%) | R+30.1 | 66,158 |
| Citrus | 17,794 (26.9%) | 47,598 (72.0%) | R+45.1 | 66,119 |
| Bay | 17,122 (26.0%) | 47,965 (72.9%) | R+46.9 | 65,811 |
| Flagler | 19,316 (35.9%) | 33,914 (63.0%) | R+27.1 | 53,822 |
| Nassau | 11,614 (26.3%) | 32,069 (72.6%) | R+46.3 | 44,169 |
| Highlands | 10,332 (29.6%) | 24,221 (69.3%) | R+39.8 | 34,937 |
| Walton | 6,988 (20.9%) | 26,031 (78.0%) | R+57.0 | 33,386 |
| Monroe | 12,222 (41.0%) | 17,286 (57.9%) | R+17.0 | 29,836 |
| Putnam | 6,353 (26.0%) | 17,792 (72.9%) | R+46.9 | 24,414 |
| Columbia | 5,593 (24.7%) | 16,768 (74.2%) | R+49.4 | 22,610 |
| Levy | 4,056 (24.7%) | 12,172 (74.2%) | R+49.5 | 16,408 |
| Jackson | 4,005 (26.9%) | 10,705 (72.0%) | R+45.0 | 14,874 |
| Suwannee | 2,847 (19.3%) | 11,726 (79.6%) | R+60.3 | 14,735 |
| Gadsden | 9,589 (65.1%) | 4,968 (33.8%) | D+31.4 | 14,719 |
| Wakulla | 3,688 (27.6%) | 9,530 (71.3%) | R+43.7 | 13,365 |
| Okeechobee | 2,504 (23.2%) | 8,185 (75.7%) | R+52.6 | 10,808 |
| Baker | 1,332 (13.2%) | 8,638 (85.7%) | R+72.5 | 10,081 |
| Bradford | 1,990 (21.2%) | 7,284 (77.7%) | R+56.5 | 9,377 |
| Hendry | 2,823 (31.2%) | 6,137 (67.7%) | R+36.6 | 9,060 |
| Washington | 1,445 (17.1%) | 6,932 (81.8%) | R+64.8 | 8,470 |
| DeSoto | 2,410 (28.7%) | 5,904 (70.2%) | R+41.6 | 8,406 |
| Gilchrist | 1,124 (15.6%) | 5,990 (83.3%) | R+67.6 | 7,193 |
| Taylor | 1,349 (20.0%) | 5,306 (78.9%) | R+58.8 | 6,729 |
| Madison | 2,199 (35.7%) | 3,896 (63.2%) | R+27.6 | 6,163 |
| Holmes | 589 (9.6%) | 5,480 (89.3%) | R+79.7 | 6,136 |
| Gulf | 1,330 (22.7%) | 4,460 (76.2%) | R+53.5 | 5,854 |
| Jefferson | 2,340 (40.9%) | 3,320 (58.0%) | R+17.1 | 5,723 |
| Dixie | 798 (14.6%) | 4,626 (84.4%) | R+69.8 | 5,484 |
| Hardee | 1,202 (21.9%) | 4,219 (77.0%) | R+55.0 | 5,481 |
| Franklin | 1,273 (28.0%) | 3,226 (70.9%) | R+42.9 | 4,549 |
| Calhoun | 691 (16.0%) | 3,588 (82.9%) | R+66.9 | 4,327 |
| Union | 654 (15.6%) | 3,494 (83.3%) | R+67.7 | 4,194 |
| Hamilton | 1,175 (30.4%) | 2,642 (68.5%) | R+38.0 | 3,859 |
| Glades | 830 (23.4%) | 2,684 (75.5%) | R+52.2 | 3,553 |
| Lafayette | 297 (11.7%) | 2,203 (87.1%) | R+75.4 | 2,528 |
| Liberty | 385 (16.4%) | 1,938 (82.5%) | R+66.1 | 2,349 |
Model benchmark — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast.
Counties colored by the projected margin — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast above. Hover a county for its numbers.
Both chambers carry the Call the Map state legislature forecast — the same model the Chamber Board publishes.
Republicans are favored to hold control. Republicans hold 28 of 40 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 11.8 of 40 · 80% range 10–13
See all 40 districts →Republicans are favored to hold control. Republicans hold 85 of 120 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 41.0 of 120 · 80% range 31–44
See all 120 districts →Chamber-by-chamber detail for every state lives on the full Chamber Board. Control today: NCSL · 2026 State & Legislative Partisan Composition · Jan. 27, 2026
Counties colored by the actual 2024 presidential result — counted votes, not a projection. Hover a county for its numbers.
The county tables and shift arrows across this site measure against these baselines. No president is on the 2026 ballot; this is the reference line every other race here is measured against.
Ballot measures — coming with the Ballotpedia layer.
Trifecta nowRepublican trifecta
| Chamber | Now | Projected |
|---|---|---|
| Senate | R | R |
| House | R | R |