Florida

SenateR+8.7

U.S. House · projectedD 6 · R 22

GovernorR+7.3

2024 presidentR+13.1

Forecast as of October 28, 2026. U.S. Senate: Ashley Moody ahead of Angie Nixon by R+8.7, with a 93 in 100 chance to win. Governor: Byron Donalds ahead of David Jolly by R+7.3, with an 87 in 100 chance to win. U.S. House: Democrats are favored in 6 of the state's 28 districts and Republicans in 22.

Closest races

FL-22FlipCasey Askar vs. Pia DandiyaTilt RR+1.2 FL-25Jared Moskowitz vs. Scott SingerTilt DD+1.4 FL-14Kathy Castor vs. Mike BeltranLean DD+2.1 FL-07Ryan Elijah vs. Bale DaltonLean RR+2.8

Projected delegation: D 6 · R 22

FL-01Jimmy Patronis vs. Gay ValimontSolid RR+29.1 FL-02Austin Rogers vs. Amanda GreenLikely RR+9.2 FL-03Kat Cammack vs. Seth HarpSolid RR+15.1 FL-04Aaron Bean vs. LaShonda HollowayLikely RR+7.1 FL-05John Rutherford vs. Rachel GrageSolid RR+15.5 FL-06Randy Fine vs. Eric YonceSolid RR+22.9 FL-07Ryan Elijah vs. Bale DaltonLean RR+2.8 FL-08Mike Haridopolos vs. Jennifer JenkinsLikely RR+9.8 FL-09FlipDan Green vs. Darren SotoLean RR+3.1 FL-10Maxwell FrostSolid DD+30.6 FL-11Joe Strada vs. James PericolaLean RR+4.6 FL-12Gus Bilirakis vs. Kimberly OvermanLikely RR+10.2 FL-13Anna Paulina Luna vs. Leela GrayLean RR+3.6 FL-14Kathy Castor vs. Mike BeltranLean DD+2.1 FL-15Laurel Lee vs. Robert PeopleSolid RR+14.1 FL-16Sydney Gruters vs. Kelly KirschnerLean RR+4.5 FL-17Greg Steube vs. Matthew MontavonSolid RR+15.9 FL-18Scott Franklin vs. Curtis GibsonLikely RR+11.5 FL-19Jim Schwartzel vs. Victor AriasSolid RR+19.7 FL-20Debbie Wasserman Schultz vs. Brent AndersenSolid DD+38.7 FL-21Brian Mast vs. James MartinLikely RR+12.0 FL-22FlipCasey Askar vs. Pia DandiyaTilt RR+1.2 FL-23Lois Frankel vs. Deborah AdeimySolid DD+18.3 FL-24Oliver Gilbert vs. Mayonna Te BrownSolid DD+40.1 FL-25Jared Moskowitz vs. Scott SingerTilt DD+1.4 FL-26Mario Diaz-Balart vs. Nicole LocklinLikely RR+12.8 FL-27Maria Elvira Salazar vs. Eliott RodriguezLean RR+4.8 FL-28Carlos Giménez vs. Phil EhrSolid RR+18.9