Florida Governor polls 2026
David Jolly (D) vs Byron Donalds (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
Poll averageR+4.7the polls’ average, each as published · same figure as the race page
Polls4545 on file · 37 in the poll average · 8 not counted
Latest field dateOct 27Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-10-27 (2 days old)
EditionOct 29the poll average and its weights as of this edition
The polls and the poll average
drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its pollOct 29, 2026R+4.7today's poll average of 37 polls
- poll in the average · area is its weight
- not counted · shown, never moves the line
- trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average
- left of the break: 2 earlier polls, not on the time axis
The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.
Data table
| Days | Average as it stood | Trend line |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2026 | R+4.7 | R+4.7 |
| Oct 27–Oct 28, 2026 | R+4.7 | R+4.7 |
| Oct 25–Oct 26, 2026 | R+4.7 | R+4.7 |
| Oct 23–Oct 24, 2026 | R+4.8 | R+4.7 |
| Oct 20–Oct 22, 2026 | R+4.6 | R+4.7 |
| Oct 19, 2026 | R+4.2 | R+4.7 |
| Oct 15–Oct 18, 2026 | R+4.5 | R+4.6 to R+4.7 |
| Oct 11–Oct 14, 2026 | R+4.1 | R+4.5 to R+4.6 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | R+3.7 | R+4.4 |
| Oct 9, 2026 | R+4.0 | R+4.4 |
| Oct 7–Oct 8, 2026 | R+3.9 | R+4.3 |
| Oct 5–Oct 6, 2026 | R+3.9 | R+4.2 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | R+4.3 | R+4.1 |
| Oct 1–Oct 3, 2026 | R+3.8 | R+4.0 to R+4.1 |
| Sep 27–Sep 30, 2026 | R+3.2 | R+3.7 to R+3.9 |
| Sep 21–Sep 26, 2026 | R+3.4 | R+3.5 to R+3.6 |
| Sep 17–Sep 20, 2026 | R+1.8 | R+3.0 to R+3.4 |
| Sep 9–Sep 16, 2026 | R+2.3 | R+2.1 to R+2.9 |
| Aug 13–Sep 8, 2026 | R+3.1 | R+3.1 to R+2.2 |
| Jul 26–Aug 12, 2026 | R+3.9 | R+3.9 to R+3.1 |
| Jul 17–Jul 25, 2026 | R+3.2 | R+3.4 to R+3.9 |
| Jul 11–Jul 16, 2026 | R+2.9 | R+3.0 to R+3.3 |
| Jun 9–Jul 10, 2026 | R+3.1 | R+3.1 to R+3.0 |
| May 16–Jun 8, 2026 | R+2.7 | R+2.7 to R+3.1 |
| May 9–May 15, 2026 | R+4.6 | R+3.6 to R+2.7 |
| Apr 13–May 8, 2026 | R+3.9 | R+3.9 to R+3.8 |
| Apr 9–Apr 12, 2026 | R+3.2 | R+3.8 to R+3.9 |
| Apr 3–Apr 8, 2026 | R+2.7 | R+3.2 to R+3.7 |
| Mar 31–Apr 2, 2026 | R+3.6 | R+2.9 to R+3.0 |
| Mar 2–Mar 30, 2026 | R+2.7 | R+2.7 to R+2.9 |
| Feb 20–Mar 1, 2026 | R+1.4 | R+1.1 to R+2.7 |
| Feb 16–Feb 19, 2026 | R+3.4 | R+1.8 to R+1.2 |
| Oct 25–Feb 15, 2026 | R+5.8 | R+5.8 to R+1.9 |
| Sep 18–Oct 24, 2025 | R+2.0 | R+2.0 to R+5.8 |
| Sep 9–Sep 17, 2025 | D+1.0 | R+0.4 to R+1.9 |
In governor races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at R+4.6.
Every poll on file · 45
newest added first37 in the poll average · 8 shown, not counted · 55 primary polls on file, not listed here
| Pollster | Fielded | Sample | Result | Added | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●St. Pete PollsGeneral | 916 LV | R+2.3Byron Donalds 47.8David Jolly 45.5Don't know 3.4Someone else 3.2 | 1d ago | 0.80 | Poll release | |
| ●The New York Times/Siena CollegeGeneral | 813 LV | R+3.9Byron Donalds 48.36David Jolly 44.43Don't know 7.03Someone else 0.17 | 1d ago | 0.74 | News coverage | |
| ●Echelon InsightsGeneral | 515 LV | R+6.0Byron Donalds 50David Jolly 44Don't know 5Scott Eckhard Jewett 1Would not vote 0Someone else 0 | 2d ago | 0.58 | Poll release | |
| ●RedBox ResearchGeneral | 4,832 LV | R+5.0Byron Donalds 49David Jolly 44 | 3d ago | 0.93 | Poll release | |
| ●co/efficientGeneral · Governor · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 1,014 LV | R+9.0Byron Donalds 49David Jolly 40+1 other release | 7d ago | 0.78 | Poll release | |
| ●University of North FloridaGeneral | 1,471 LV | R+2.0Byron Donalds 49David Jolly 47Don't know 4Someone else 1 | 0.89 | Poll release | ||
| ●YouGovGeneral | 825 RV | R+8.0Byron Donalds 50David Jolly 42Don't know 7Someone else 1Would not vote 0 | 0.66 | Poll release | ||
| ●ActiVoteGeneral · Governor | 400 LV | R+3.4Byron Donalds 51.7David Jolly 48.3 | 0.48 | Poll release | ||
| ●MDW CommunicationsGeneral | 2,351 LV | R+2.1Byron Donalds 45.9David Jolly 43.8Don't know 10.3 | 0.80 | Poll release | ||
| ●Change ResearchGeneral · Governor · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 920 LV | TiedByron Donalds 47David Jolly 47 | 0.66 | Poll release | ||
| ●St. Pete PollsGeneral | 836 LV | R+0.1Byron Donalds 44.7David Jolly 44.6Don't know 6.9Someone else 3.9 | 0.61 | Poll document | ||
| ●Targoz Market ResearchGeneral · Governor | 857 LV | R+10.0Byron Donalds 52David Jolly 42+3 other releases | 0.59 | Poll release |
Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.