Florida Governor polls
David Jolly (D) vs Byron Donalds (R). The polls the model aggregates, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
Adjusted aggregateR+1.7same figure as the race page
Polls2020 recorded polls · 20 eligible for the aggregate · 19 with positive weight
Latest field dateSep 9Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-09-09 (5 days old)
EditionSep 13weights and corrections as of this edition
The polls the model reads
hover, tap or Tab to any poll- counted poll · area is its model weight
- weight exactly zero · shown, not counted
- poll trend · smoothed across nearby polls · the recent end firms up as polls arrive
- published average
- 30 days before this edition
Every poll on file · 26
newest first21 in the aggregate · 5 shown, not counted · 54 primary polls on file, not listed here
| Pollster | Fielded | Added | Sample | Result | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●Change ResearchGeneral · Governor | 1,107 LV | David Jolly 47Byron Donalds 44 | 4d ago | 0.608 | no link | |
| ●Hart Research AssociatesGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 600 LV | David Jolly 46Byron Donalds 45Don't know 9 | 0.198 | Poll release | ||
| ●Targoz Market ResearchGeneral · Governor | 1,027 LV | Jay Collins 44David Jolly 39+5 other releases | 0.127 | Poll release | ||
| ●University of North FloridaGeneral · Governor | 848 LV | Byron Donalds 46David Jolly 41+1 other release | 0.096 | Poll release | ||
| ●Change ResearchGeneral · D sponsor · D partisan | 1,348 RV | David Jolly 37Byron Donalds 37 | 0.093 | Poll release | ||
| ●Kaplan StrategiesGeneral · NPA sponsor · NPA partisan | 668 LV | Byron Donalds 34.9David Jolly 29.8Don't know 28.2Frank Russo 7.1 | 0.024 | Poll release | ||
| ●Change ResearchGeneral · Governor | 2,070 LV | David Jolly 46Byron Donalds 42+3 other releases | 0.016 | Poll release | ||
| ●Cherry CommunicationsGeneral · Governor · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 604 LV | Byron Donalds 47David Jolly 39+1 other release | 0.007 | Poll release | ||
| The Public Sentiment InstituteGeneral · Governor | 687 LV | Byron Donalds 40David Jolly 40+1 other release | not in the aggregate | Poll document | ||
| ●Stetson UniversityGeneral · Governor | 848 LV | Byron Donalds 46Jerry Demings 42 | 0.004 | Poll release | ||
| ●Stetson University Center for Public Opinion ResearchGeneral | 848 LV | Byron Donalds 47David Jolly 40Don't know 7Someone else 6+1 other release | 0.004 | Poll release | ||
| ●Echelon InsightsGeneral · Governor | 406 LV | Byron Donalds 49David Jolly 43+3 other releases | 0.004 | Poll document |
Archive source date 2026-09-13. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.