Senate
Chance of D control71 in 100
Democrats are favored to hold control. Democrats hold 34 of 67 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 36.1 of 67 · 80% range 32–39
See all 67 districts →One state, every federal race and the provisional balance of power in its capitol.
Counties colored by the projected margin — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast above. Hover a county for its numbers.
| Hennepin | 386,024 (70.0%) | 144,853 (26.2%) | D+43.7 | 551,847 |
| Ramsey | 150,053 (70.4%) | 54,964 (25.8%) | D+44.6 | 213,115 |
| Dakota | 110,614 (55.5%) | 80,959 (40.7%) | D+14.9 | 199,140 |
| Anoka | 76,194 (47.2%) | 79,127 (49.0%) | R+1.8 | 161,456 |
| Washington | 69,579 (53.5%) | 55,432 (42.7%) | D+10.9 | 129,949 |
| St. Louis | 51,165 (56.0%) | 36,689 (40.2%) | D+15.9 | 91,324 |
| Olmsted | 37,912 (54.4%) | 29,152 (41.8%) | D+12.6 | 69,713 |
| Scott | 31,222 (45.1%) | 35,310 (51.1%) | R+5.9 | 69,160 |
| Wright | 23,990 (34.7%) | 42,463 (61.5%) | R+26.7 | 69,078 |
| Stearns | 24,162 (36.3%) | 39,818 (59.9%) | R+23.5 | 66,507 |
| Carver | 24,662 (46.5%) | 26,311 (49.7%) | R+3.1 | 52,986 |
| Sherburne | 14,291 (32.1%) | 28,512 (64.1%) | R+32.0 | 44,494 |
| Crow Wing | 11,003 (33.8%) | 20,269 (62.4%) | R+28.5 | 32,507 |
| Otter Tail | 9,145 (32.4%) | 17,976 (63.8%) | R+31.3 | 28,192 |
| Blue Earth | 13,725 (49.1%) | 13,187 (47.1%) | D+1.9 | 27,975 |
| Rice | 13,449 (48.1%) | 13,431 (48.1%) | D+0.1 | 27,942 |
| Chisago | 9,256 (33.9%) | 17,045 (62.3%) | R+28.5 | 27,340 |
| Clay | 12,531 (49.7%) | 11,719 (46.5%) | D+3.2 | 25,208 |
| Goodhue | 9,118 (41.2%) | 12,178 (55.0%) | R+13.8 | 22,137 |
| Winona | 10,081 (47.2%) | 10,456 (49.0%) | R+1.8 | 21,348 |
| Itasca | 8,150 (39.5%) | 11,675 (56.7%) | R+17.1 | 20,608 |
| Isanti | 5,769 (29.0%) | 13,366 (67.2%) | R+38.2 | 19,891 |
| Douglas | 6,176 (32.1%) | 12,359 (64.1%) | R+32.1 | 19,267 |
| Beltrami | 8,903 (46.6%) | 9,475 (49.6%) | R+3.0 | 19,104 |
| Kandiyohi | 6,138 (34.3%) | 11,059 (61.9%) | R+27.5 | 17,876 |
| Benton | 5,563 (31.7%) | 11,301 (64.5%) | R+32.7 | 17,530 |
| McLeod | 4,969 (30.5%) | 10,686 (65.7%) | R+35.1 | 16,273 |
| Steele | 5,968 (37.2%) | 9,448 (59.0%) | R+21.7 | 16,025 |
| Carlton | 7,711 (48.3%) | 7,659 (47.9%) | D+0.3 | 15,977 |
| Morrison | 3,375 (21.6%) | 11,643 (74.6%) | R+53.0 | 15,611 |
| Becker | 5,020 (33.1%) | 9,572 (63.1%) | R+30.0 | 15,168 |
| Nicollet | 7,338 (49.2%) | 7,001 (47.0%) | D+2.3 | 14,905 |
| Cass | 4,926 (33.1%) | 9,384 (63.1%) | R+30.0 | 14,875 |
| Mower | 6,475 (44.4%) | 7,546 (51.8%) | R+7.3 | 14,575 |
| Le Sueur | 4,405 (32.8%) | 8,502 (63.4%) | R+30.5 | 13,417 |
| Pine | 4,191 (32.2%) | 8,311 (64.0%) | R+31.7 | 12,996 |
| Freeborn | 5,029 (39.2%) | 7,321 (57.0%) | R+17.9 | 12,838 |
| Polk | 3,908 (33.0%) | 7,492 (63.2%) | R+30.2 | 11,850 |
| Mille Lacs | 3,416 (29.3%) | 7,817 (66.9%) | R+37.7 | 11,677 |
| Brown | 3,575 (32.0%) | 7,186 (64.2%) | R+32.3 | 11,186 |
| Todd | 2,429 (23.1%) | 7,700 (73.1%) | R+50.1 | 10,529 |
| Meeker | 2,964 (28.2%) | 7,147 (68.0%) | R+39.8 | 10,510 |
| Hubbard | 3,538 (33.9%) | 6,515 (62.3%) | R+28.5 | 10,450 |
| Wabasha | 3,676 (35.4%) | 6,311 (60.8%) | R+25.4 | 10,382 |
| Lyon | 3,384 (33.9%) | 6,207 (62.3%) | R+28.3 | 9,970 |
| Dodge | 3,206 (33.4%) | 6,016 (62.8%) | R+29.3 | 9,586 |
| Fillmore | 3,499 (36.8%) | 5,639 (59.4%) | R+22.5 | 9,499 |
| Houston | 3,630 (41.4%) | 4,812 (54.8%) | R+13.5 | 8,775 |
| Martin | 2,466 (29.7%) | 5,509 (66.5%) | R+36.7 | 8,290 |
| Aitkin | 2,757 (34.4%) | 4,962 (61.8%) | R+27.5 | 8,024 |
| Waseca | 2,657 (33.3%) | 5,019 (62.9%) | R+29.6 | 7,979 |
| Kanabec | 2,135 (28.6%) | 5,038 (67.6%) | R+38.9 | 7,456 |
| Sibley | 1,839 (28.1%) | 4,467 (68.1%) | R+40.1 | 6,555 |
| Roseau | 1,639 (25.1%) | 4,648 (71.1%) | R+46.1 | 6,535 |
| Redwood | 1,789 (28.0%) | 4,359 (68.2%) | R+40.2 | 6,391 |
| Nobles | 2,038 (32.0%) | 4,079 (64.1%) | R+32.1 | 6,359 |
| Renville | 1,801 (29.1%) | 4,157 (67.1%) | R+38.0 | 6,193 |
| Wadena | 1,500 (24.3%) | 4,444 (71.9%) | R+47.7 | 6,179 |
| Faribault | 1,846 (31.0%) | 3,888 (65.2%) | R+34.2 | 5,960 |
| Pennington | 1,924 (33.9%) | 3,530 (62.3%) | R+28.3 | 5,669 |
| Pope | 1,877 (33.9%) | 3,451 (62.3%) | R+28.4 | 5,538 |
| Lake | 2,722 (51.0%) | 2,411 (45.2%) | D+5.8 | 5,336 |
| Koochiching | 1,927 (36.9%) | 3,093 (59.3%) | R+22.4 | 5,218 |
| Chippewa | 1,584 (32.6%) | 3,084 (63.6%) | R+30.9 | 4,852 |
| Cottonwood | 1,336 (29.1%) | 3,083 (67.1%) | R+38.0 | 4,594 |
| Jackson | 1,243 (28.7%) | 2,924 (67.5%) | R+38.8 | 4,332 |
| Yellow Medicine | 1,219 (29.4%) | 2,775 (66.8%) | R+37.5 | 4,152 |
| Rock | 1,231 (29.8%) | 2,741 (66.4%) | R+36.6 | 4,129 |
| Stevens | 1,431 (36.3%) | 2,363 (59.9%) | R+23.7 | 3,944 |
| Swift | 1,270 (32.7%) | 2,464 (63.5%) | R+30.8 | 3,882 |
| Marshall | 927 (24.0%) | 2,795 (72.2%) | R+48.3 | 3,869 |
| Watonwan | 1,361 (36.0%) | 2,276 (60.2%) | R+24.2 | 3,781 |
| Pipestone | 952 (25.6%) | 2,625 (70.6%) | R+45.0 | 3,718 |
| Clearwater | 921 (24.9%) | 2,638 (71.3%) | R+46.4 | 3,700 |
| Murray | 1,043 (28.5%) | 2,480 (67.7%) | R+39.2 | 3,662 |
| Lac qui Parle | 1,036 (33.7%) | 1,919 (62.5%) | R+28.8 | 3,072 |
| Cook | 1,854 (66.1%) | 843 (30.1%) | D+36.1 | 2,804 |
| Grant | 935 (34.4%) | 1,681 (61.8%) | R+27.5 | 2,719 |
| Wilkin | 770 (29.9%) | 1,706 (66.3%) | R+36.4 | 2,574 |
| Norman | 979 (38.7%) | 1,455 (57.5%) | R+18.8 | 2,530 |
| Lincoln | 756 (30.4%) | 1,634 (65.8%) | R+35.3 | 2,484 |
| Big Stone | 754 (34.8%) | 1,333 (61.5%) | R+26.7 | 2,169 |
| Kittson | 714 (37.2%) | 1,134 (59.0%) | R+21.8 | 1,921 |
| Lake of the Woods | 475 (26.3%) | 1,263 (69.9%) | R+43.7 | 1,807 |
| Mahnomen | 763 (45.5%) | 849 (50.7%) | R+5.1 | 1,676 |
| Red Lake | 503 (31.0%) | 1,060 (65.2%) | R+34.3 | 1,625 |
| Traverse | 470 (33.9%) | 864 (62.3%) | R+28.4 | 1,387 |
Model benchmark — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast.
Counties colored by the projected margin — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast above. Hover a county for its numbers.
Both chambers carry the Call the Map state legislature forecast — the same model the Chamber Board publishes.
Democrats are favored to hold control. Democrats hold 34 of 67 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 36.1 of 67 · 80% range 32–39
See all 67 districts →Democrats are favored to win control. The chamber is tied, 67–67.
Expected Democratic seats 69.3 of 134 · 80% range 66–77
See all 134 districts →Chamber-by-chamber detail for every state lives on the full Chamber Board. Control today: NCSL · 2026 State & Legislative Partisan Composition · Jan. 27, 2026
Counties colored by the actual 2024 presidential result — counted votes, not a projection. Hover a county for its numbers.
The county tables and shift arrows across this site measure against these baselines. No president is on the 2026 ballot; this is the reference line every other race here is measured against.
Ballot measures — coming with the Ballotpedia layer.
Trifecta nowSplit controlProjectedDemocratic trifecta
| Chamber | Now | Projected |
|---|---|---|
| Senate | D | D |
| House | OTH | D |