Minnesota

SenateD+3.5

U.S. House · projectedD 4 · R 4

GovernorD+9.3

2024 presidentD+4.3

Forecast as of October 28, 2026. U.S. Senate: Peggy Flanagan ahead of Michele Tafoya by D+3.5, with a 74 in 100 chance to win. Governor: Amy Klobuchar ahead of Lisa Demuth by D+9.3, with a 92 in 100 chance to win. U.S. House: Democrats are favored in 4 of the state's 8 districts and Republicans in 4.

Closest races

MN-01Brad Finstad vs. Jake JohnsonTilt RR+1.4 U.S. SenatePeggy Flanagan vs. Michele TafoyaLean DD+3.5 MN-08Pete Stauber vs. Trina SwansonLikely RR+7.0 GovernorAmy Klobuchar vs. Lisa DemuthLikely DD+9.3

Projected delegation: D 4 · R 4

MN-01Brad Finstad vs. Jake JohnsonTilt RR+1.4 MN-02Matt Little vs. Eric PrattLikely DD+12.4 MN-03Kelly Morrison vs. Tyler BassSolid DD+28.5 MN-04Betty McCollum vs. Paul WikstromSolid DD+41.8 MN-05Ilhan Omar vs. John NagelSolid DD+59.9 MN-06Tom Emmer vs. Doug ChapinLikely RR+12.8 MN-07Michelle Fischbach vs. Erik OsbergSolid RR+26.1 MN-08Pete Stauber vs. Trina SwansonLikely RR+7.0