Senate
Chance of R control99 in 100
Republicans are favored to hold control. Republicans hold 20 of 31 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 10.6 of 31 · 80% range 9–11
See all 31 districts →One state, every federal race and the provisional balance of power in its capitol.
Counties colored by the projected margin — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast above. Hover a county for its numbers.
| Harris | 628,720 (59.3%) | 411,246 (38.8%) | D+20.5 | 1,060,108 |
| Dallas | 393,473 (68.0%) | 173,816 (30.1%) | D+38.0 | 578,276 |
| Tarrant | 296,440 (52.9%) | 253,296 (45.2%) | D+7.7 | 560,383 |
| Bexar | 318,383 (61.7%) | 187,830 (36.4%) | D+25.3 | 516,017 |
| Travis | 292,022 (73.9%) | 95,739 (24.2%) | D+49.7 | 395,271 |
| Collin | 177,682 (50.6%) | 166,566 (47.5%) | D+3.2 | 350,915 |
| Denton | 148,953 (48.7%) | 150,899 (49.4%) | R+0.6 | 305,660 |
| Fort Bend | 143,233 (58.0%) | 98,838 (40.1%) | D+18.0 | 246,759 |
| Williamson | 112,218 (53.5%) | 93,705 (44.6%) | D+8.8 | 209,911 |
| Montgomery | 63,167 (30.2%) | 142,068 (67.9%) | R+37.7 | 209,210 |
| El Paso | 114,828 (67.1%) | 53,145 (31.0%) | D+36.0 | 171,226 |
| Hidalgo | 86,486 (58.5%) | 58,649 (39.6%) | D+18.8 | 147,946 |
| Brazoria | 48,462 (43.9%) | 59,757 (54.2%) | R+10.2 | 110,315 |
| Galveston | 44,620 (41.2%) | 61,583 (56.9%) | R+15.7 | 108,260 |
| Bell | 43,125 (48.5%) | 44,116 (49.6%) | R+1.1 | 88,931 |
| Hays | 49,739 (58.1%) | 34,249 (40.0%) | D+18.1 | 85,615 |
| Lubbock | 30,644 (36.0%) | 52,866 (62.1%) | R+26.1 | 85,127 |
| Nueces | 42,566 (51.4%) | 38,700 (46.7%) | D+4.7 | 82,840 |
| Cameron | 45,107 (57.0%) | 32,489 (41.1%) | D+16.0 | 79,099 |
| Smith | 22,688 (32.1%) | 46,683 (66.0%) | R+33.9 | 70,715 |
| Comal | 21,420 (30.4%) | 47,718 (67.7%) | R+37.3 | 70,477 |
| McLennan | 27,616 (40.8%) | 38,865 (57.3%) | R+16.6 | 67,769 |
| Ellis | 25,772 (38.0%) | 40,706 (60.1%) | R+22.0 | 67,766 |
| Brazos | 28,417 (45.4%) | 32,957 (52.7%) | R+7.3 | 62,563 |
| Parker | 11,276 (18.2%) | 49,400 (79.9%) | R+61.6 | 61,851 |
| Jefferson | 30,579 (52.0%) | 27,070 (46.1%) | D+6.0 | 58,766 |
| Guadalupe | 23,403 (40.4%) | 33,461 (57.7%) | R+17.4 | 57,965 |
| Johnson | 14,774 (26.9%) | 39,146 (71.2%) | R+44.3 | 54,964 |
| Kaufman | 18,771 (39.7%) | 27,581 (58.4%) | R+18.6 | 47,250 |
| Randall | 9,895 (21.7%) | 34,779 (76.4%) | R+54.6 | 45,539 |
| Grayson | 11,790 (26.3%) | 32,238 (71.8%) | R+45.6 | 44,881 |
| Webb | 26,373 (58.8%) | 17,626 (39.3%) | D+19.5 | 44,851 |
| Rockwall | 14,054 (33.1%) | 27,543 (65.0%) | R+31.8 | 42,403 |
| Midland | 8,959 (22.4%) | 30,333 (75.7%) | R+53.4 | 40,053 |
| Taylor | 10,851 (28.8%) | 26,159 (69.3%) | R+40.6 | 37,727 |
| Hunt | 7,906 (24.9%) | 23,303 (73.2%) | R+48.4 | 31,813 |
| Gregg | 10,657 (33.5%) | 20,549 (64.6%) | R+31.1 | 31,810 |
| Tom Green | 9,095 (29.4%) | 21,268 (68.7%) | R+39.3 | 30,951 |
| Wichita | 9,461 (31.2%) | 20,273 (66.9%) | R+35.7 | 30,310 |
| Ector | 7,964 (27.4%) | 20,512 (70.7%) | R+43.2 | 29,028 |
| Bastrop | 12,417 (45.8%) | 14,170 (52.3%) | R+6.5 | 27,102 |
| Henderson | 5,379 (20.5%) | 20,366 (77.6%) | R+57.1 | 26,244 |
| Wise | 4,205 (16.1%) | 21,341 (82.0%) | R+65.8 | 26,041 |
| Bowie | 7,555 (30.3%) | 16,921 (67.8%) | R+37.5 | 24,950 |
| Hood | 4,605 (18.5%) | 19,811 (79.6%) | R+61.1 | 24,889 |
| Orange | 4,573 (18.5%) | 19,702 (79.6%) | R+61.1 | 24,745 |
| Victoria | 7,912 (33.0%) | 15,636 (65.1%) | R+32.2 | 24,004 |
| Angelina | 6,663 (28.4%) | 16,337 (69.7%) | R+41.3 | 23,445 |
| Potter | 7,084 (32.4%) | 14,360 (65.7%) | R+33.3 | 21,859 |
| Liberty | 4,526 (21.2%) | 16,400 (76.9%) | R+55.7 | 21,331 |
| Harrison | 5,910 (28.7%) | 14,288 (69.4%) | R+40.7 | 20,589 |
| Kendall | 4,889 (24.5%) | 14,687 (73.6%) | R+49.1 | 19,955 |
| Hardin | 2,450 (12.8%) | 16,366 (85.3%) | R+72.6 | 19,180 |
| Kerr | 4,860 (25.3%) | 13,955 (72.8%) | R+47.4 | 19,179 |
| Burnet | 4,706 (24.5%) | 14,103 (73.6%) | R+49.0 | 19,173 |
| Van Zandt | 2,562 (13.5%) | 16,104 (84.6%) | R+71.2 | 19,028 |
| Waller | 7,729 (41.2%) | 10,678 (56.9%) | R+15.7 | 18,763 |
| Wilson | 5,050 (27.2%) | 13,172 (70.9%) | R+43.7 | 18,575 |
| San Patricio | 6,567 (37.7%) | 10,521 (60.4%) | R+22.7 | 17,419 |
| Nacogdoches | 6,330 (36.5%) | 10,689 (61.6%) | R+25.1 | 17,349 |
| Walker | 6,210 (36.2%) | 10,609 (61.9%) | R+25.7 | 17,145 |
| Chambers | 3,300 (19.4%) | 13,386 (78.7%) | R+59.3 | 17,009 |
| Medina | 5,429 (32.4%) | 11,008 (65.7%) | R+33.3 | 16,755 |
| Wood | 2,716 (16.4%) | 13,576 (81.7%) | R+65.4 | 16,608 |
| Polk | 3,922 (23.7%) | 12,306 (74.4%) | R+50.7 | 16,542 |
| Coryell | 5,728 (35.2%) | 10,250 (62.9%) | R+27.8 | 16,287 |
| Rusk | 3,409 (23.1%) | 11,093 (75.0%) | R+52.0 | 14,783 |
| Lamar | 3,194 (22.1%) | 10,996 (76.0%) | R+53.9 | 14,465 |
| Cherokee | 3,176 (22.7%) | 10,524 (75.4%) | R+52.6 | 13,965 |
| Cooke | 2,505 (18.0%) | 11,149 (80.1%) | R+62.1 | 13,918 |
| Upshur | 2,112 (15.6%) | 11,174 (82.5%) | R+66.9 | 13,543 |
| Navarro | 3,877 (28.7%) | 9,373 (69.4%) | R+40.7 | 13,507 |
| Anderson | 2,867 (21.7%) | 10,066 (76.4%) | R+54.6 | 13,183 |
| Atascosa | 4,395 (35.0%) | 7,928 (63.1%) | R+28.1 | 12,562 |
| Erath | 2,255 (18.0%) | 10,007 (80.1%) | R+62.0 | 12,499 |
| Washington | 3,258 (26.3%) | 8,909 (71.8%) | R+45.6 | 12,403 |
| Brown | 1,579 (13.8%) | 9,683 (84.3%) | R+70.6 | 11,480 |
| Hopkins | 2,296 (20.1%) | 8,912 (78.0%) | R+57.9 | 11,425 |
| Hill | 2,291 (20.1%) | 8,871 (78.0%) | R+57.8 | 11,378 |
| Gillespie | 2,412 (21.5%) | 8,602 (76.6%) | R+55.1 | 11,227 |
| Wharton | 3,359 (30.0%) | 7,635 (68.1%) | R+38.2 | 11,207 |
| Starr | 5,811 (52.0%) | 5,161 (46.1%) | D+5.8 | 11,184 |
| Fannin | 2,058 (18.4%) | 8,891 (79.7%) | R+61.2 | 11,161 |
| Jasper | 2,124 (19.7%) | 8,460 (78.4%) | R+58.7 | 10,789 |
| Maverick | 5,435 (50.7%) | 5,085 (47.4%) | D+3.3 | 10,724 |
| Caldwell | 5,152 (48.2%) | 5,330 (49.9%) | R+1.7 | 10,685 |
| Austin | 2,245 (21.4%) | 8,032 (76.7%) | R+55.2 | 10,476 |
| Val Verde | 4,611 (46.4%) | 5,130 (51.7%) | R+5.2 | 9,930 |
| Cass | 2,016 (20.9%) | 7,433 (77.2%) | R+56.2 | 9,632 |
| Grimes | 2,318 (24.2%) | 7,066 (73.9%) | R+49.6 | 9,566 |
| Llano | 1,996 (21.5%) | 7,107 (76.6%) | R+55.1 | 9,279 |
| Bandera | 1,937 (20.9%) | 7,145 (77.2%) | R+56.3 | 9,258 |
| Palo Pinto | 1,651 (18.2%) | 7,258 (79.9%) | R+61.7 | 9,082 |
| Fayette | 1,976 (21.8%) | 6,930 (76.3%) | R+54.6 | 9,078 |
| Matagorda | 2,654 (29.3%) | 6,239 (68.8%) | R+39.5 | 9,065 |
| Jim Wells | 4,332 (47.9%) | 4,534 (50.2%) | R+2.2 | 9,038 |
| Aransas | 2,257 (25.4%) | 6,448 (72.7%) | R+47.2 | 8,874 |
| San Jacinto | 1,691 (19.4%) | 6,854 (78.7%) | R+59.3 | 8,711 |
| Panola | 1,458 (18.7%) | 6,185 (79.4%) | R+60.7 | 7,791 |
| Lampasas | 1,709 (22.2%) | 5,839 (75.9%) | R+53.7 | 7,694 |
| Montague | 875 (11.6%) | 6,540 (86.5%) | R+74.9 | 7,559 |
| Milam | 1,901 (25.2%) | 5,511 (72.9%) | R+47.8 | 7,556 |
| Lavaca | 918 (12.9%) | 6,089 (85.2%) | R+72.4 | 7,143 |
| Titus | 2,012 (28.9%) | 4,809 (69.2%) | R+40.2 | 6,953 |
| Kleberg | 3,545 (52.0%) | 3,143 (46.1%) | D+5.9 | 6,818 |
| Colorado | 1,758 (25.8%) | 4,921 (72.3%) | R+46.4 | 6,808 |
| Shelby | 1,450 (21.4%) | 5,197 (76.7%) | R+55.3 | 6,776 |
| Uvalde | 2,817 (42.3%) | 3,711 (55.8%) | R+13.4 | 6,654 |
| Howard | 1,403 (21.4%) | 5,038 (76.7%) | R+55.4 | 6,566 |
| Tyler | 952 (14.6%) | 5,448 (83.5%) | R+68.9 | 6,524 |
| Bosque | 1,161 (17.8%) | 5,234 (80.3%) | R+62.5 | 6,519 |
| Burleson | 1,396 (21.9%) | 4,862 (76.2%) | R+54.3 | 6,379 |
| Houston | 1,669 (26.2%) | 4,587 (71.9%) | R+45.8 | 6,377 |
| Hale | 1,605 (25.4%) | 4,595 (72.7%) | R+47.3 | 6,320 |
| Limestone | 1,604 (26.0%) | 4,457 (72.1%) | R+46.2 | 6,178 |
| Leon | 753 (12.2%) | 5,301 (85.9%) | R+73.7 | 6,171 |
| Freestone | 1,207 (19.6%) | 4,837 (78.5%) | R+58.9 | 6,161 |
| Bee | 2,258 (37.7%) | 3,615 (60.4%) | R+22.7 | 5,987 |
| Blanco | 1,603 (27.6%) | 4,089 (70.5%) | R+42.8 | 5,802 |
| Lee | 1,317 (23.0%) | 4,305 (75.1%) | R+52.1 | 5,731 |
| Eastland | 666 (11.7%) | 4,923 (86.4%) | R+74.7 | 5,697 |
| Young | 703 (12.4%) | 4,849 (85.7%) | R+73.3 | 5,660 |
| Hutchinson | 664 (11.8%) | 4,843 (86.3%) | R+74.5 | 5,614 |
| Robertson | 1,740 (31.3%) | 3,708 (66.8%) | R+35.5 | 5,554 |
| Hockley | 1,040 (19.1%) | 4,297 (79.0%) | R+59.9 | 5,440 |
| Calhoun | 1,562 (29.3%) | 3,672 (68.8%) | R+39.5 | 5,335 |
| DeWitt | 1,019 (19.1%) | 4,209 (79.0%) | R+59.9 | 5,329 |
| Gonzales | 1,439 (27.2%) | 3,743 (70.9%) | R+43.6 | 5,282 |
| Gray | 614 (11.9%) | 4,451 (86.2%) | R+74.3 | 5,163 |
| Trinity | 992 (19.7%) | 3,936 (78.4%) | R+58.6 | 5,023 |
| Callahan | 552 (11.6%) | 4,116 (86.5%) | R+74.9 | 4,758 |
| Jones | 709 (15.0%) | 3,932 (83.1%) | R+68.1 | 4,731 |
| Rains | 645 (14.4%) | 3,734 (83.6%) | R+69.2 | 4,464 |
| Comanche | 627 (14.1%) | 3,746 (84.0%) | R+70.0 | 4,458 |
| Gaines | 379 (8.7%) | 3,908 (89.4%) | R+80.8 | 4,370 |
| Jackson | 721 (16.7%) | 3,508 (81.4%) | R+64.7 | 4,311 |
| Falls | 1,426 (33.4%) | 2,768 (64.7%) | R+31.4 | 4,275 |
| Andrews | 607 (14.7%) | 3,442 (83.4%) | R+68.7 | 4,127 |
| Clay | 416 (10.3%) | 3,531 (87.8%) | R+77.4 | 4,023 |
| Red River | 895 (22.7%) | 2,978 (75.4%) | R+52.8 | 3,948 |
| Newton | 784 (20.0%) | 3,058 (78.1%) | R+58.1 | 3,916 |
| Scurry | 547 (14.0%) | 3,275 (84.1%) | R+70.0 | 3,896 |
| Sabine | 446 (11.7%) | 3,284 (86.4%) | R+74.7 | 3,802 |
| Willacy | 2,207 (58.2%) | 1,510 (39.9%) | D+18.4 | 3,789 |
| Madison | 804 (21.5%) | 2,864 (76.6%) | R+55.1 | 3,739 |
| Morris | 1,181 (31.9%) | 2,450 (66.2%) | R+34.3 | 3,701 |
| Moore | 736 (20.2%) | 2,845 (77.9%) | R+57.8 | 3,650 |
| Franklin | 611 (16.9%) | 2,937 (81.2%) | R+64.3 | 3,617 |
| Somervell | 575 (16.0%) | 2,957 (82.1%) | R+66.2 | 3,600 |
| Camp | 1,050 (29.4%) | 2,453 (68.7%) | R+39.3 | 3,571 |
| Archer | 372 (10.6%) | 3,058 (87.5%) | R+76.8 | 3,496 |
| Nolan | 806 (23.1%) | 2,611 (75.0%) | R+51.8 | 3,483 |
| Live Oak | 578 (16.7%) | 2,825 (81.4%) | R+64.8 | 3,469 |
| Karnes | 865 (25.0%) | 2,526 (73.1%) | R+48.1 | 3,457 |
| Frio | 1,598 (47.6%) | 1,698 (50.5%) | R+3.0 | 3,360 |
| Zapata | 1,615 (48.7%) | 1,640 (49.4%) | R+0.8 | 3,318 |
| Marion | 948 (29.5%) | 2,202 (68.6%) | R+39.1 | 3,211 |
| Brewster | 1,580 (50.7%) | 1,478 (47.4%) | D+3.3 | 3,117 |
| Hamilton | 467 (15.4%) | 2,516 (82.7%) | R+67.4 | 3,041 |
| Wilbarger | 682 (22.4%) | 2,300 (75.7%) | R+53.2 | 3,040 |
| Duval | 1,647 (54.2%) | 1,334 (43.9%) | D+10.3 | 3,039 |
| Deaf Smith | 860 (29.5%) | 2,004 (68.7%) | R+39.2 | 2,919 |
| Pecos | 927 (32.2%) | 1,901 (65.9%) | R+33.8 | 2,883 |
| Jack | 252 (8.8%) | 2,556 (89.3%) | R+80.5 | 2,862 |
| Coleman | 307 (10.8%) | 2,469 (87.2%) | R+76.4 | 2,830 |
| Lamb | 567 (20.0%) | 2,207 (78.0%) | R+58.0 | 2,828 |
| Runnels | 338 (12.2%) | 2,373 (85.9%) | R+73.6 | 2,763 |
| Goliad | 631 (23.2%) | 2,031 (74.8%) | R+51.6 | 2,714 |
| Ward | 506 (19.7%) | 2,009 (78.4%) | R+58.6 | 2,564 |
| Stephens | 274 (10.7%) | 2,239 (87.4%) | R+76.7 | 2,562 |
| San Augustine | 664 (26.0%) | 1,840 (72.1%) | R+46.1 | 2,552 |
| McCulloch | 344 (14.4%) | 2,004 (83.7%) | R+69.3 | 2,393 |
| Dawson | 539 (22.5%) | 1,808 (75.6%) | R+53.0 | 2,392 |
| Zavala | 1,586 (66.7%) | 748 (31.4%) | D+35.3 | 2,379 |
| Reeves | 954 (40.7%) | 1,344 (57.4%) | R+16.7 | 2,343 |
| Dimmit | 1,434 (61.4%) | 856 (36.7%) | D+24.7 | 2,334 |
| Terry | 512 (22.0%) | 1,773 (76.1%) | R+54.2 | 2,329 |
| Carson | 204 (9.4%) | 1,916 (88.7%) | R+79.3 | 2,161 |
| Refugio | 748 (35.7%) | 1,305 (62.4%) | R+26.6 | 2,093 |
| Ochiltree | 188 (9.2%) | 1,822 (88.9%) | R+79.7 | 2,049 |
| Mills | 226 (12.1%) | 1,606 (86.0%) | R+73.9 | 1,867 |
| San Saba | 198 (10.8%) | 1,608 (87.3%) | R+76.6 | 1,841 |
| Delta | 298 (16.5%) | 1,479 (81.7%) | R+65.2 | 1,811 |
| Lynn | 333 (19.0%) | 1,383 (79.1%) | R+60.0 | 1,749 |
| Mason | 334 (19.4%) | 1,354 (78.7%) | R+59.3 | 1,721 |
| Mitchell | 268 (15.7%) | 1,411 (82.4%) | R+66.8 | 1,712 |
| Parmer | 323 (18.9%) | 1,351 (79.2%) | R+60.3 | 1,706 |
| Brooks | 1,015 (62.0%) | 590 (36.1%) | D+26.0 | 1,636 |
| Kimble | 197 (12.0%) | 1,408 (86.1%) | R+74.0 | 1,636 |
| Yoakum | 267 (16.4%) | 1,332 (81.7%) | R+65.3 | 1,630 |
| La Salle | 754 (46.9%) | 823 (51.2%) | R+4.3 | 1,608 |
| Childress | 208 (13.4%) | 1,311 (84.7%) | R+71.2 | 1,548 |
| Wheeler | 113 (7.3%) | 1,406 (90.8%) | R+83.5 | 1,548 |
| Swisher | 331 (21.5%) | 1,183 (76.7%) | R+55.2 | 1,543 |
| Haskell | 249 (16.3%) | 1,252 (81.8%) | R+65.6 | 1,530 |
| Floyd | 319 (22.4%) | 1,077 (75.7%) | R+53.2 | 1,423 |
| Martin | 187 (13.2%) | 1,205 (84.9%) | R+71.8 | 1,419 |
| Castro | 328 (23.8%) | 1,023 (74.3%) | R+50.5 | 1,377 |
| Hartley | 114 (8.3%) | 1,233 (89.8%) | R+81.4 | 1,373 |
| Hansford | 97 (7.1%) | 1,239 (91.0%) | R+83.8 | 1,362 |
| Presidio | 930 (68.5%) | 402 (29.6%) | D+38.9 | 1,358 |
| Real | 239 (17.9%) | 1,070 (80.2%) | R+62.3 | 1,334 |
| Winkler | 227 (17.2%) | 1,064 (80.9%) | R+63.6 | 1,316 |
| Crosby | 373 (29.1%) | 884 (69.0%) | R+39.8 | 1,281 |
| Fisher | 255 (20.5%) | 967 (77.6%) | R+57.2 | 1,246 |
| Coke | 128 (10.4%) | 1,085 (87.8%) | R+77.4 | 1,236 |
| Bailey | 276 (23.3%) | 886 (74.8%) | R+51.6 | 1,185 |
| Shackelford | 101 (8.6%) | 1,053 (89.5%) | R+80.9 | 1,176 |
| Donley | 134 (11.5%) | 1,010 (86.6%) | R+75.1 | 1,166 |
| Baylor | 134 (11.8%) | 982 (86.3%) | R+74.5 | 1,138 |
| Hemphill | 139 (12.7%) | 938 (85.4%) | R+72.7 | 1,098 |
| Garza | 159 (14.6%) | 909 (83.5%) | R+69.0 | 1,089 |
| Jim Hogg | 664 (61.5%) | 395 (36.6%) | D+24.9 | 1,080 |
| Dallam | 117 (11.9%) | 850 (86.2%) | R+74.4 | 986 |
| Kinney | 289 (29.9%) | 660 (68.3%) | R+38.4 | 967 |
| Crockett | 247 (25.6%) | 700 (72.5%) | R+46.9 | 965 |
| Hardeman | 147 (15.4%) | 792 (82.8%) | R+67.3 | 957 |
| Sutton | 205 (21.5%) | 731 (76.6%) | R+55.2 | 954 |
| Crane | 154 (16.3%) | 773 (81.8%) | R+65.6 | 945 |
| Knox | 176 (18.8%) | 743 (79.3%) | R+60.5 | 937 |
| Upton | 108 (12.2%) | 763 (85.9%) | R+73.7 | 888 |
| Lipscomb | 88 (10.3%) | 754 (87.9%) | R+77.6 | 858 |
| Collingsworth | 102 (12.5%) | 700 (85.6%) | R+73.2 | 818 |
| Concho | 128 (15.7%) | 672 (82.4%) | R+66.8 | 816 |
| Jeff Davis | 343 (43.1%) | 438 (55.0%) | R+12.0 | 796 |
| Hall | 113 (14.4%) | 655 (83.7%) | R+69.3 | 783 |
| Armstrong | 50 (6.6%) | 691 (91.5%) | R+84.8 | 755 |
| Schleicher | 146 (19.3%) | 595 (78.8%) | R+59.4 | 755 |
| Menard | 141 (19.9%) | 554 (78.2%) | R+58.2 | 708 |
| Hudspeth | 243 (34.4%) | 451 (63.8%) | R+29.5 | 707 |
| Edwards | 109 (15.9%) | 563 (82.2%) | R+66.4 | 685 |
| Dickens | 109 (16.1%) | 554 (82.0%) | R+65.8 | 676 |
| Oldham | 50 (7.5%) | 600 (90.5%) | R+83.1 | 663 |
| Reagan | 106 (16.4%) | 528 (81.7%) | R+65.3 | 646 |
| Throckmorton | 50 (8.2%) | 551 (89.9%) | R+81.8 | 613 |
| Cochran | 113 (18.6%) | 483 (79.4%) | R+60.9 | 608 |
| Sherman | 45 (7.6%) | 538 (90.6%) | R+82.9 | 594 |
| Irion | 79 (13.4%) | 501 (84.8%) | R+71.3 | 591 |
| Culberson | 274 (51.5%) | 248 (46.6%) | D+4.7 | 532 |
| Briscoe | 51 (10.1%) | 446 (88.0%) | R+77.8 | 507 |
| Stonewall | 83 (17.0%) | 396 (81.1%) | R+64.3 | 488 |
| Glasscock | 23 (5.1%) | 420 (92.9%) | R+87.8 | 452 |
| Cottle | 78 (17.4%) | 361 (80.6%) | R+63.3 | 448 |
| Motley | 23 (5.2%) | 412 (93.0%) | R+87.5 | 443 |
| Sterling | 28 (6.5%) | 392 (91.6%) | R+84.9 | 428 |
| Roberts | 9 (2.3%) | 372 (95.9%) | R+93.4 | 388 |
| Foard | 70 (18.9%) | 294 (79.2%) | R+60.3 | 371 |
| McMullen | 30 (9.0%) | 296 (89.2%) | R+79.9 | 332 |
| Kent | 37 (12.2%) | 260 (85.8%) | R+73.9 | 303 |
| Terrell | 77 (27.9%) | 194 (70.3%) | R+42.5 | 276 |
| Borden | 8 (3.0%) | 251 (95.1%) | R+91.9 | 264 |
| Kenedy | 38 (35.2%) | 68 (63.0%) | R+27.3 | 108 |
| King | 3 (3.3%) | 87 (94.6%) | R+91.1 | 92 |
| Loving | 7 (10.6%) | 58 (87.9%) | R+76.2 | 66 |
Model benchmark — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast.
Counties colored by the projected margin — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast above. Hover a county for its numbers.
Both chambers carry the Call the Map state legislature forecast — the same model the Chamber Board publishes.
Republicans are favored to hold control. Republicans hold 20 of 31 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 10.6 of 31 · 80% range 9–11
See all 31 districts →Republicans are favored to hold control. Republicans hold 88 of 150 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 60.3 of 150 · 80% range 52–64
See all 150 districts →Chamber-by-chamber detail for every state lives on the full Chamber Board. Control today: NCSL · 2026 State & Legislative Partisan Composition · Jan. 27, 2026
Counties colored by the actual 2024 presidential result — counted votes, not a projection. Hover a county for its numbers.
The county tables and shift arrows across this site measure against these baselines. No president is on the 2026 ballot; this is the reference line every other race here is measured against.
Ballot measures — coming with the Ballotpedia layer.
Trifecta nowRepublican trifecta
| Chamber | Now | Projected |
|---|---|---|
| Senate | R | R |
| House | R | R |