South Dakota

SenateR+15.2

U.S. House · projectedD 0 · R 1

GovernorR+21.6

2024 presidentR+29.2

Forecast as of October 28, 2026. U.S. Senate: Mike Rounds ahead of Brian Bengs by 15.2 points, with a 99 in 100 chance to lead. Governor: Larry Rhoden ahead of Dan Ahlers by R+21.6, with a 99 in 100 chance to win. U.S. House: Republicans are favored in the state's one district.

Closest races

U.S. SenateA Democrat vs. Mike RoundsSolid RR+15.2 SD-ALMarty Jackley vs. Nikki GronliSolid RR+21.6 GovernorDan Ahlers vs. Larry RhodenSolid RR+21.6

Projected delegation: D 0 · R 1

SD-ALMarty Jackley vs. Nikki GronliSolid RR+21.6