Senate
Chance of R control>99 in 100
Republicans are favored to hold control. Republicans hold 29 of 35 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 6.0 of 35 · 80% range 3–9
See all 35 districts →One state, every federal race and the provisional balance of power in its capitol.
Counties colored by the projected margin — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast above. Hover a county for its numbers.
| Pulaski | 73,475 (63.1%) | 39,877 (34.2%) | D+28.8 | 116,497 |
| Benton | 37,580 (38.6%) | 57,118 (58.7%) | R+20.1 | 97,326 |
| Washington | 36,512 (49.7%) | 35,037 (47.6%) | D+2.0 | 73,534 |
| Saline | 13,659 (31.3%) | 28,765 (66.0%) | R+34.6 | 43,601 |
| Faulkner | 15,036 (36.5%) | 25,073 (60.8%) | R+24.3 | 41,222 |
| Sebastian | 11,531 (33.5%) | 21,940 (63.8%) | R+30.3 | 34,400 |
| Garland | 10,998 (34.3%) | 20,172 (63.0%) | R+28.6 | 32,035 |
| Craighead | 9,472 (33.6%) | 17,953 (63.7%) | R+30.1 | 28,186 |
| White | 4,877 (20.9%) | 17,832 (76.4%) | R+55.5 | 23,339 |
| Lonoke | 5,668 (24.5%) | 16,881 (72.8%) | R+48.4 | 23,175 |
| Pope | 4,697 (25.7%) | 13,118 (71.6%) | R+46.0 | 18,309 |
| Crawford | 4,045 (22.4%) | 13,507 (74.9%) | R+52.5 | 18,039 |
| Jefferson | 10,206 (62.4%) | 5,706 (34.9%) | D+27.5 | 16,354 |
| Baxter | 3,757 (23.7%) | 11,674 (73.6%) | R+49.9 | 15,859 |
| Boone | 2,480 (19.1%) | 10,121 (78.1%) | R+59.0 | 12,951 |
| Greene | 2,487 (20.8%) | 9,163 (76.5%) | R+55.8 | 11,973 |
| Miller | 3,260 (27.3%) | 8,377 (70.0%) | R+42.8 | 11,960 |
| Union | 4,240 (36.3%) | 7,136 (61.0%) | R+24.8 | 11,692 |
| Crittenden | 6,083 (54.7%) | 4,728 (42.6%) | D+12.2 | 11,111 |
| Independence | 2,274 (21.4%) | 8,044 (75.9%) | R+54.4 | 10,604 |
| Cleburne | 1,653 (17.1%) | 7,728 (80.2%) | R+63.0 | 9,641 |
| Hot Spring | 2,438 (26.2%) | 6,607 (71.1%) | R+44.8 | 9,296 |
| Carroll | 3,218 (36.9%) | 5,278 (60.4%) | R+23.6 | 8,732 |
| Mississippi | 3,140 (38.7%) | 4,752 (58.6%) | R+19.9 | 8,111 |
| Johnson | 1,798 (26.2%) | 4,873 (71.1%) | R+44.9 | 6,856 |
| Ouachita | 2,884 (44.2%) | 3,469 (53.1%) | R+8.9 | 6,529 |
| Conway | 2,115 (32.7%) | 4,174 (64.6%) | R+31.9 | 6,464 |
| Polk | 990 (15.8%) | 5,114 (81.5%) | R+65.7 | 6,273 |
| Logan | 1,265 (20.4%) | 4,777 (76.9%) | R+56.5 | 6,210 |
| Grant | 1,019 (16.7%) | 4,930 (80.6%) | R+64.0 | 6,114 |
| Columbia | 2,106 (35.0%) | 3,741 (62.3%) | R+27.2 | 6,009 |
| Marion | 1,300 (21.9%) | 4,482 (75.4%) | R+53.5 | 5,942 |
| Clark | 2,530 (43.7%) | 3,109 (53.6%) | R+10.0 | 5,795 |
| Van Buren | 1,256 (21.8%) | 4,356 (75.5%) | R+53.7 | 5,768 |
| Madison | 1,288 (22.7%) | 4,236 (74.6%) | R+51.9 | 5,677 |
| Sharp | 1,133 (20.1%) | 4,344 (77.2%) | R+57.1 | 5,629 |
| Poinsett | 1,079 (20.1%) | 4,134 (77.2%) | R+57.0 | 5,358 |
| Ashley | 1,532 (28.8%) | 3,645 (68.5%) | R+39.7 | 5,321 |
| Franklin | 1,050 (19.9%) | 4,084 (77.4%) | R+57.5 | 5,276 |
| Randolph | 980 (19.5%) | 3,906 (77.8%) | R+58.3 | 5,022 |
| Cross | 1,389 (28.1%) | 3,422 (69.2%) | R+41.1 | 4,945 |
| Yell | 1,031 (21.0%) | 3,739 (76.3%) | R+55.2 | 4,902 |
| Drew | 1,770 (36.7%) | 2,917 (60.6%) | R+23.8 | 4,817 |
| Hempstead | 1,539 (33.4%) | 2,945 (63.9%) | R+30.5 | 4,608 |
| Stone | 962 (21.1%) | 3,479 (76.2%) | R+55.2 | 4,564 |
| St. Francis | 2,436 (53.8%) | 1,967 (43.5%) | D+10.4 | 4,525 |
| Izard | 838 (18.7%) | 3,525 (78.6%) | R+59.9 | 4,484 |
| Lawrence | 852 (19.8%) | 3,340 (77.5%) | R+57.7 | 4,308 |
| Arkansas | 1,295 (30.8%) | 2,790 (66.5%) | R+35.6 | 4,198 |
| Fulton | 809 (21.2%) | 2,905 (76.1%) | R+54.9 | 3,817 |
| Clay | 767 (20.4%) | 2,891 (76.9%) | R+56.5 | 3,759 |
| Phillips | 2,259 (60.4%) | 1,377 (36.8%) | D+23.6 | 3,737 |
| Little River | 949 (25.6%) | 2,659 (71.7%) | R+46.1 | 3,708 |
| Jackson | 1,030 (28.5%) | 2,486 (68.8%) | R+40.3 | 3,614 |
| Sevier | 793 (22.2%) | 2,679 (75.1%) | R+52.8 | 3,568 |
| Perry | 811 (23.4%) | 2,564 (73.9%) | R+50.5 | 3,469 |
| Howard | 1,000 (29.5%) | 2,294 (67.8%) | R+38.2 | 3,385 |
| Pike | 509 (15.4%) | 2,700 (81.9%) | R+66.4 | 3,298 |
| Searcy | 448 (15.3%) | 2,401 (82.0%) | R+66.7 | 2,928 |
| Newton | 550 (19.3%) | 2,226 (78.0%) | R+58.7 | 2,853 |
| Montgomery | 565 (20.1%) | 2,165 (77.2%) | R+57.0 | 2,806 |
| Desha | 1,376 (51.9%) | 1,205 (45.4%) | D+6.4 | 2,653 |
| Chicot | 1,493 (56.5%) | 1,077 (40.8%) | D+15.8 | 2,641 |
| Scott | 371 (14.5%) | 2,121 (82.8%) | R+68.3 | 2,561 |
| Cleveland | 475 (18.6%) | 2,010 (78.7%) | R+60.1 | 2,554 |
| Lincoln | 717 (28.1%) | 1,766 (69.2%) | R+41.1 | 2,552 |
| Bradley | 842 (34.7%) | 1,521 (62.6%) | R+27.9 | 2,429 |
| Prairie | 469 (19.4%) | 1,888 (78.0%) | R+58.6 | 2,422 |
| Nevada | 749 (34.0%) | 1,392 (63.3%) | R+29.2 | 2,200 |
| Lee | 1,036 (54.3%) | 820 (43.0%) | D+11.4 | 1,907 |
| Monroe | 823 (44.7%) | 968 (52.6%) | R+7.9 | 1,841 |
| Lafayette | 594 (33.8%) | 1,118 (63.5%) | R+29.8 | 1,760 |
| Dallas | 686 (39.0%) | 1,026 (58.3%) | R+19.3 | 1,759 |
| Woodruff | 649 (37.0%) | 1,058 (60.3%) | R+23.3 | 1,754 |
| Calhoun | 354 (22.4%) | 1,186 (74.9%) | R+52.6 | 1,583 |
Model benchmark — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast.
Counties colored by the projected margin — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast above. Hover a county for its numbers.
Both chambers carry the Call the Map state legislature forecast — the same model the Chamber Board publishes.
Republicans are favored to hold control. Republicans hold 29 of 35 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 6.0 of 35 · 80% range 3–9
See all 35 districts →Republicans are favored to hold control. Republicans hold 81 of 100 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 21.5 of 100 · 80% range 16–23
See all 100 districts →Chamber-by-chamber detail for every state lives on the full Chamber Board. Control today: NCSL · 2026 State & Legislative Partisan Composition · Jan. 27, 2026
Counties colored by the actual 2024 presidential result — counted votes, not a projection. Hover a county for its numbers.
The county tables and shift arrows across this site measure against these baselines. No president is on the 2026 ballot; this is the reference line every other race here is measured against.
Ballot measures — coming with the Ballotpedia layer.
Trifecta nowRepublican trifecta
| Chamber | Now | Projected |
|---|---|---|
| Senate | R | R |
| House | R | R |