Arkansas

SenateR+12.2

U.S. House · projectedD 0 · R 4

GovernorR+18.5

2024 presidentR+30.6

Forecast as of October 28, 2026. U.S. Senate: Tom Cotton ahead of Hallie Shoffner by R+12.2, with a 95 in 100 chance to win. Governor: Sarah Huckabee Sanders ahead of Fredrick Love by R+18.5, with a 99 in 100 chance to win. U.S. House: Democrats are favored in 0 of the state's 4 districts and Republicans in 4.

Closest races

AR-02French Hill vs. Chris JonesLean RR+3.8 U.S. SenateHallie Shoffner vs. Tom CottonLikely RR+12.2 GovernorFredrick Love vs. Sarah Huckabee SandersSolid RR+18.5 AR-03Steve Womack vs. Robb RyerseSolid RR+22.0

Projected delegation: D 0 · R 4

AR-01Rick Crawford vs. Terri Yarbrough GreenSolid RR+38.4 AR-02French Hill vs. Chris JonesLean RR+3.8 AR-03Steve Womack vs. Robb RyerseSolid RR+22.0 AR-04Bruce Westerman vs. James RussellSolid RR+34.1