Arkansas Senate polls
Hallie Shoffner (D) vs Tom Cotton (R). The polls the model aggregates, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
Adjusted aggregateR+9.1same figure as the race page
Polls44 recorded polls · 4 eligible for the aggregate · 4 with positive weight
Latest field dateAug 18Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-08-18 (26 days old)
EditionSep 13weights and corrections as of this edition
The polls the model reads
hover, tap or Tab to any poll- counted poll · area is its model weight
- weight exactly zero · shown, not counted
- poll trend · smoothed across nearby polls, larger and non-partisan ones count more · the recent end firms up as polls arrive
- published average
- 30 days before this edition
Every poll on file · 4
newest first4 in the aggregate · 0 shown, not counted
| Pollster | Fielded | Added | Sample | Result | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●J.L. PartnersGeneral · Senate | 803 LV | Tom Cotton 51Hallie Shoffner 35Jeff Wadlin 4+1 other release | 0.270 | Poll document | ||
| ●Hendrix CollegeGeneral | 1,217 LV | Hallie Shoffner 47.4Tom Cotton 44Don't know 5.65Jeff Wadlin 2.95 | 0.198 | Poll release | ||
| ●2040 Strategy GroupGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 586 LV | Tom Cotton 46Hallie Shoffner 43Don't know 12 | 0.104 | Poll release | ||
| ●GrayhouseGeneral · Senate · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 550 LV | Tom Cotton 58Hallie Shoffner 36+1 other release | 0.000 | Poll release |
Archive source date 2026-09-13. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.