Arkansas Senate polls 2026
Hallie Shoffner (D) vs Tom Cotton (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
The polls and the poll average
drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its pollOct 28, 2026R+8.6today's poll average of 6 polls
- poll in the average · area is its weight
- trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average
The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.
Data table
| Days | Average as it stood | Trend line |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | R+8.6 | R+8.6 |
| Oct 13–Oct 27, 2026 | R+8.6 | R+8.6 |
| Oct 4–Oct 12, 2026 | R+7.3 | R+8.2 to R+8.7 |
| Aug 18–Oct 3, 2026 | R+5.6 | R+5.6 to R+8.0 |
| Aug 12–Aug 17, 2026 | Even | R+3.7 to R+5.5 |
| Jul 25–Aug 11, 2026 | R+5.4 | R+5.4 to R+3.2 |
| Feb 9–Jul 24, 2026 | R+22.0 | R+22.0 to R+5.4 |
In Senate races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at a quarter of its weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at R+8.4.
Every poll on file · 6
newest added first6 in the poll average
| Pollster | Fielded | Sample | Result | Added | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●Hendrix CollegeGeneral | 709 LV | R+9.0Tom Cotton 50Hallie Shoffner 41Don't know 4.5Jeff Wadlin 4.5 | 0.61 | Poll release | ||
| ●GrayHouseGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 550 LV | R+11.0Tom Cotton 50Hallie Shoffner 39Don't know 7Jeff Wadlin 4 | 0.48 | Pollster post | ||
| ●J.L. PartnersGeneral | 803 LV | R+16.0Tom Cotton 51Hallie Shoffner 35Don't know 11Jeff Wadlin 4 | 0.34 | Poll release | ||
| ●Hendrix CollegeGeneral | 1,217 LV | D+3.4Hallie Shoffner 47.4Tom Cotton 44Don't know 5.65Jeff Wadlin 2.95 | 0.39 | Poll release | ||
| ●2040 Strategy GroupGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 586 LV | R+3.0Tom Cotton 46Hallie Shoffner 43Don't know 12 | 0.22 | Poll release | ||
| ●GrayHouseGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 550 LV | R+22.0Tom Cotton 58Hallie Shoffner 36Don't know 7 | 0.03 | Poll release |
Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.