Maine

SenateD+0.6

U.S. House · projectedD 2 · R 0

GovernorD+10.3

2024 presidentD+6.9

Forecast as of October 28, 2026. U.S. Senate: Troy Jackson ahead of Susan Collins by D+0.6, with a 54 in 100 chance in the final round. Governor: Hannah Pingree ahead of Bobby Charles by 10.3 points, with a 94 in 100 chance to win. U.S. House: Democrats are favored in 2 of the state's 2 districts and Republicans in 0.

Closest races

U.S. SenateTroy Jackson vs. Susan CollinsToss-upD+0.6 ME-02Matthew Dunlap vs. Paul LePageTilt DD+0.8 GovernorHannah Pingree vs. Bobby CharlesLikely DD+10.3 ME-01Chellie Pingree vs. Ronald RussellSolid DD+26.2

Projected delegation: D 2 · R 0

ME-01Chellie Pingree vs. Ronald RussellSolid DD+26.2 ME-02Matthew Dunlap vs. Paul LePageTilt DD+0.8

How Maine decides its electionsone exception

U.S. Senate · U.S. HouseMaine — ranked-choice voting (federal offices)Our two-party margin is READ AS the final ranked-choice round rather than computed as one. No transfer or exhausted-ballot model exists. Maine's 2nd district in 2018 is the canonical race decided by transfers; the extra uncertainty that creates is carried only in the per-race error term, not as an explicit transfer model.