Senate
Chance of D control79 in 100
Democrats are favored to hold control. Democrats hold 20 of 35 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 20.1 of 35 · 80% range 17–23
See all 35 districts →One state, every federal race and the provisional balance of power in its capitol.
Counties colored by the projected margin — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast above. Hover a county for its numbers.
| Cumberland | 87,746 (62.9%) | 44,917 (32.2%) | D+30.7 | 139,498 |
| York | 45,740 (49.2%) | 42,716 (45.9%) | D+3.3 | 93,014 |
| Penobscot | 23,664 (38.8%) | 34,318 (56.3%) | R+17.5 | 60,969 |
| Kennebec | 21,719 (42.6%) | 26,815 (52.5%) | R+10.0 | 51,035 |
| Androscoggin | 16,849 (40.9%) | 22,337 (54.2%) | R+13.3 | 41,205 |
| Hancock | 12,756 (50.3%) | 11,383 (44.8%) | D+5.4 | 25,383 |
| Aroostook | 7,669 (30.7%) | 16,072 (64.4%) | R+33.7 | 24,964 |
| Oxford | 9,077 (37.5%) | 13,956 (57.6%) | R+20.1 | 24,220 |
| Somerset | 6,175 (31.0%) | 12,763 (64.1%) | R+33.1 | 19,914 |
| Knox | 9,685 (53.4%) | 7,557 (41.7%) | D+11.7 | 18,130 |
| Waldo | 8,085 (45.9%) | 8,649 (49.2%) | R+3.2 | 17,596 |
| Sagadahoc | 9,080 (53.0%) | 7,205 (42.1%) | D+11.0 | 17,124 |
| Lincoln | 8,468 (50.4%) | 7,515 (44.7%) | D+5.7 | 16,807 |
| Washington | 4,125 (32.6%) | 7,893 (62.5%) | R+29.8 | 12,637 |
| Franklin | 4,946 (39.6%) | 6,931 (55.5%) | R+15.9 | 12,489 |
| Piscataquis | 2,159 (30.2%) | 4,637 (64.9%) | R+34.7 | 7,146 |
Model benchmark — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast.
Counties colored by the projected margin — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast above. Hover a county for its numbers.
Both chambers carry the Call the Map state legislature forecast — the same model the Chamber Board publishes.
Democrats are favored to hold control. Democrats hold 20 of 35 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 20.1 of 35 · 80% range 17–23
See all 35 districts →Democrats are favored to hold control. Democrats hold 76 of 149 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 84.2 of 151 · 80% range 74–90
See all 151 districts →Chamber-by-chamber detail for every state lives on the full Chamber Board. Control today: NCSL · 2026 State & Legislative Partisan Composition · Jan. 27, 2026
Counties colored by the actual 2024 presidential result — counted votes, not a projection. Hover a county for its numbers.
The county tables and shift arrows across this site measure against these baselines. No president is on the 2026 ballot; this is the reference line every other race here is measured against.
Ballot measures — coming with the Ballotpedia layer.
Trifecta nowDemocratic trifecta
| Chamber | Now | Projected |
|---|---|---|
| Senate | D | D |
| House | D | D |