Senate
Chance of R control>99 in 100
Republicans are favored to hold control. Republicans hold 27 of 35 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 8.3 of 35 · 80% range 7–9
See all 35 districts →One state, every federal race and the provisional balance of power in its capitol.
Counties colored by the projected margin — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast above. Hover a county for its numbers.
| Jefferson | 99,620 (56.4%) | 75,152 (42.5%) | D+13.8 | 176,716 |
| Madison | 54,305 (46.4%) | 61,343 (52.5%) | R+6.0 | 116,934 |
| Mobile | 44,834 (43.1%) | 57,969 (55.8%) | R+12.6 | 103,946 |
| Baldwin | 15,744 (21.7%) | 55,997 (77.2%) | R+55.5 | 72,539 |
| Shelby | 20,474 (30.1%) | 46,694 (68.8%) | R+38.6 | 67,915 |
| Montgomery | 35,185 (66.1%) | 17,455 (32.8%) | D+33.3 | 53,225 |
| Tuscaloosa | 20,854 (41.3%) | 29,137 (57.6%) | R+16.4 | 50,547 |
| Lee | 16,323 (37.7%) | 26,493 (61.2%) | R+23.5 | 43,292 |
| Morgan | 7,775 (24.5%) | 23,657 (74.4%) | R+50.0 | 31,782 |
| Limestone | 9,062 (28.7%) | 22,210 (70.2%) | R+41.6 | 31,620 |
| Calhoun | 8,334 (28.8%) | 20,249 (70.1%) | R+41.2 | 28,901 |
| Etowah | 6,350 (23.2%) | 20,757 (75.7%) | R+52.6 | 27,408 |
| Houston | 7,158 (27.2%) | 18,871 (71.7%) | R+44.5 | 26,319 |
| Lauderdale | 6,583 (25.4%) | 19,010 (73.5%) | R+48.0 | 25,878 |
| St. Clair | 4,694 (18.1%) | 20,891 (80.8%) | R+62.6 | 25,870 |
| Cullman | 2,531 (9.9%) | 22,825 (89.0%) | R+79.2 | 25,638 |
| Elmore | 6,137 (24.8%) | 18,300 (74.1%) | R+49.2 | 24,709 |
| Marshall | 3,477 (14.5%) | 20,245 (84.4%) | R+69.9 | 23,986 |
| Talladega | 6,884 (34.8%) | 12,655 (64.1%) | R+29.2 | 19,756 |
| Walker | 2,587 (14.6%) | 14,933 (84.3%) | R+69.7 | 17,715 |
| DeKalb | 2,379 (13.5%) | 15,044 (85.4%) | R+71.9 | 17,617 |
| Autauga | 4,626 (27.6%) | 11,977 (71.3%) | R+43.8 | 16,788 |
| Blount | 1,575 (9.4%) | 14,984 (89.5%) | R+80.1 | 16,743 |
| Colbert | 4,546 (28.2%) | 11,407 (70.7%) | R+42.5 | 16,130 |
| Jackson | 2,069 (14.8%) | 11,777 (84.1%) | R+69.3 | 14,000 |
| Coffee | 2,908 (21.9%) | 10,208 (77.0%) | R+55.0 | 13,262 |
| Russell | 6,433 (52.2%) | 5,747 (46.7%) | D+5.6 | 12,315 |
| Tallapoosa | 3,150 (26.5%) | 8,618 (72.4%) | R+46.0 | 11,899 |
| Chilton | 1,714 (14.6%) | 9,905 (84.3%) | R+69.7 | 11,748 |
| Dale | 2,843 (25.0%) | 8,408 (73.9%) | R+48.9 | 11,376 |
| Covington | 1,465 (14.4%) | 8,590 (84.5%) | R+70.1 | 10,167 |
| Lawrence | 1,922 (20.0%) | 7,569 (78.9%) | R+58.8 | 9,597 |
| Dallas | 6,233 (67.4%) | 2,912 (31.5%) | D+35.9 | 9,247 |
| Escambia | 2,532 (28.5%) | 6,261 (70.4%) | R+41.9 | 8,891 |
| Chambers | 3,395 (40.1%) | 4,981 (58.8%) | R+18.7 | 8,469 |
| Marion | 757 (9.4%) | 7,207 (89.5%) | R+80.1 | 8,053 |
| Pike | 3,079 (39.1%) | 4,703 (59.8%) | R+20.6 | 7,869 |
| Cherokee | 970 (12.5%) | 6,677 (86.4%) | R+73.8 | 7,732 |
| Geneva | 874 (11.8%) | 6,424 (87.1%) | R+75.2 | 7,379 |
| Franklin | 1,023 (14.2%) | 6,090 (84.7%) | R+70.5 | 7,192 |
| Clarke | 3,055 (42.9%) | 3,981 (56.0%) | R+13.0 | 7,114 |
| Winston | 542 (8.2%) | 6,013 (90.7%) | R+82.5 | 6,628 |
| Randolph | 1,226 (18.6%) | 5,296 (80.3%) | R+61.7 | 6,595 |
| Barbour | 2,595 (44.3%) | 3,196 (54.6%) | R+10.2 | 5,855 |
| Monroe | 2,342 (40.1%) | 3,430 (58.8%) | R+18.6 | 5,836 |
| Marengo | 2,856 (49.6%) | 2,841 (49.3%) | D+0.3 | 5,760 |
| Henry | 1,442 (26.0%) | 4,036 (72.9%) | R+46.8 | 5,539 |
| Bibb | 1,037 (18.8%) | 4,405 (80.0%) | R+61.2 | 5,503 |
| Pickens | 2,120 (40.0%) | 3,121 (58.9%) | R+18.9 | 5,299 |
| Butler | 2,033 (40.3%) | 2,954 (58.6%) | R+18.3 | 5,042 |
| Washington | 1,185 (23.6%) | 3,780 (75.3%) | R+51.7 | 5,020 |
| Fayette | 726 (14.6%) | 4,195 (84.3%) | R+69.7 | 4,976 |
| Macon | 3,687 (79.2%) | 919 (19.7%) | D+59.4 | 4,657 |
| Cleburne | 379 (8.3%) | 4,119 (90.6%) | R+82.2 | 4,548 |
| Hale | 2,412 (55.6%) | 1,881 (43.3%) | D+12.2 | 4,341 |
| Lamar | 509 (12.4%) | 3,540 (86.5%) | R+74.0 | 4,094 |
| Clay | 643 (16.0%) | 3,337 (82.9%) | R+66.9 | 4,024 |
| Choctaw | 1,578 (39.9%) | 2,336 (59.0%) | R+19.2 | 3,958 |
| Crenshaw | 925 (24.0%) | 2,892 (74.9%) | R+51.0 | 3,859 |
| Conecuh | 1,607 (44.7%) | 1,952 (54.2%) | R+9.6 | 3,599 |
| Lowndes | 2,360 (70.1%) | 969 (28.8%) | D+41.3 | 3,366 |
| Sumter | 2,267 (71.9%) | 852 (27.0%) | D+44.9 | 3,154 |
| Coosa | 945 (30.1%) | 2,156 (68.8%) | R+38.6 | 3,135 |
| Wilcox | 2,098 (67.0%) | 1,000 (31.9%) | D+35.1 | 3,132 |
| Perry | 1,920 (72.3%) | 705 (26.6%) | D+45.8 | 2,654 |
| Bullock | 1,802 (73.7%) | 616 (25.2%) | D+48.5 | 2,445 |
| Greene | 1,893 (78.8%) | 484 (20.1%) | D+58.6 | 2,403 |
Model benchmark — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast.
Counties colored by the projected margin — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast above. Hover a county for its numbers.
Both chambers carry the Call the Map state legislature forecast — the same model the Chamber Board publishes.
Republicans are favored to hold control. Republicans hold 27 of 35 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 8.3 of 35 · 80% range 7–9
See all 35 districts →Republicans are favored to hold control. Republicans hold 77 of 105 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 27.8 of 105 · 80% range 24–29
See all 105 districts →Chamber-by-chamber detail for every state lives on the full Chamber Board. Control today: NCSL · 2026 State & Legislative Partisan Composition · Jan. 27, 2026
Counties colored by the actual 2024 presidential result — counted votes, not a projection. Hover a county for its numbers.
The county tables and shift arrows across this site measure against these baselines. No president is on the 2026 ballot; this is the reference line every other race here is measured against.
Ballot measures — coming with the Ballotpedia layer.
Trifecta nowRepublican trifecta
| Chamber | Now | Projected |
|---|---|---|
| Senate | R | R |
| House | R | R |