Senate
Chance of D control94 in 100
Democrats are favored to hold control. Democrats hold 18 of 30 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 18.5 of 30 · 80% range 18–20
See all 30 districts →One state, every federal race and the provisional balance of power in its capitol.
Counties colored by the projected margin — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast above. Hover a county for its numbers.
| Multnomah | 281,278 (80.2%) | 57,794 (16.5%) | D+63.7 | 350,643 |
| Washington | 169,292 (66.8%) | 75,617 (29.9%) | D+37.0 | 253,267 |
| Clackamas | 112,324 (55.0%) | 85,199 (41.7%) | D+13.3 | 204,264 |
| Lane | 109,195 (61.6%) | 62,259 (35.1%) | D+26.5 | 177,305 |
| Marion | 66,026 (49.4%) | 63,246 (47.3%) | D+2.1 | 133,684 |
| Deschutes | 57,544 (54.8%) | 44,074 (41.9%) | D+12.8 | 105,086 |
| Jackson | 48,010 (47.2%) | 50,420 (49.5%) | R+2.4 | 101,789 |
| Linn | 23,078 (37.8%) | 35,902 (58.9%) | R+21.0 | 60,993 |
| Douglas | 16,209 (31.1%) | 34,224 (65.6%) | R+34.5 | 52,154 |
| Yamhill | 23,221 (47.2%) | 24,363 (49.5%) | R+2.3 | 49,208 |
| Benton | 29,455 (69.5%) | 11,498 (27.1%) | D+42.4 | 42,351 |
| Josephine | 14,928 (35.8%) | 25,349 (60.9%) | R+25.0 | 41,652 |
| Polk | 19,523 (48.4%) | 19,512 (48.3%) | Even | 40,367 |
| Klamath | 8,806 (29.1%) | 20,481 (67.6%) | R+38.5 | 30,286 |
| Coos | 12,067 (40.0%) | 17,124 (56.7%) | R+16.8 | 30,187 |
| Columbia | 11,601 (43.5%) | 14,210 (53.2%) | R+9.8 | 26,692 |
| Umatilla | 8,386 (31.7%) | 17,208 (65.0%) | R+33.3 | 26,467 |
| Lincoln | 14,978 (58.8%) | 9,651 (37.9%) | D+20.9 | 25,470 |
| Clatsop | 10,977 (55.6%) | 8,106 (41.1%) | D+14.6 | 19,734 |
| Tillamook | 6,823 (49.3%) | 6,566 (47.4%) | D+1.9 | 13,846 |
| Crook | 3,370 (24.7%) | 9,822 (72.0%) | R+47.3 | 13,642 |
| Union | 3,637 (29.5%) | 8,286 (67.2%) | R+37.7 | 12,330 |
| Curry | 5,046 (41.9%) | 6,590 (54.8%) | R+12.8 | 12,033 |
| Wasco | 5,374 (47.5%) | 5,571 (49.2%) | R+1.7 | 11,318 |
| Hood River | 7,333 (67.7%) | 3,143 (29.0%) | D+38.7 | 10,833 |
| Jefferson | 3,571 (35.7%) | 6,102 (61.0%) | R+25.3 | 10,003 |
| Malheur | 2,570 (27.9%) | 6,344 (68.8%) | R+40.9 | 9,218 |
| Baker | 2,047 (25.0%) | 5,858 (71.7%) | R+46.6 | 8,175 |
| Wallowa | 1,411 (32.3%) | 2,808 (64.4%) | R+32.0 | 4,363 |
| Morrow | 1,049 (26.0%) | 2,847 (70.7%) | R+44.6 | 4,029 |
| Grant | 749 (19.7%) | 2,921 (77.0%) | R+57.2 | 3,795 |
| Harney | 727 (20.0%) | 2,782 (76.7%) | R+56.7 | 3,629 |
| Lake | 618 (17.4%) | 2,810 (79.3%) | R+61.9 | 3,545 |
| Sherman | 209 (21.4%) | 736 (75.3%) | R+53.9 | 977 |
| Gilliam | 265 (27.3%) | 673 (69.4%) | R+42.1 | 970 |
| Wheeler | 188 (25.4%) | 529 (71.4%) | R+46.0 | 741 |
Model benchmark — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast.
Counties colored by the projected margin — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast above. Hover a county for its numbers.
Both chambers carry the Call the Map state legislature forecast — the same model the Chamber Board publishes.
Democrats are favored to hold control. Democrats hold 18 of 30 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 18.5 of 30 · 80% range 18–20
See all 30 districts →Democrats are favored to hold control. Democrats hold 36 of 60 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 38.4 of 60 · 80% range 36–41
See all 60 districts →Chamber-by-chamber detail for every state lives on the full Chamber Board. Control today: NCSL · 2026 State & Legislative Partisan Composition · Jan. 27, 2026
Counties colored by the actual 2024 presidential result — counted votes, not a projection. Hover a county for its numbers.
The county tables and shift arrows across this site measure against these baselines. No president is on the 2026 ballot; this is the reference line every other race here is measured against.
Ballot measures — coming with the Ballotpedia layer.
Trifecta nowDemocratic trifecta
| Chamber | Now | Projected |
|---|---|---|
| Senate | D | D |
| House | D | D |