Race polling · GOV-OR

Oregon Governor polls 2026

Tina Kotek (D) vs Christine Drazan (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.

Poll averageD+1.1the polls’ average, each as published · same figure as the race page

Polls88 on file · 6 in the poll average · 2 not counted

Latest field dateOct 4Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-10-04 (24 days old)

EditionOct 28the poll average and its weights as of this edition

The polls and the poll average

drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its poll

Oct 28, 2026D+1.1today's poll average of 6 polls

poll in the average · area is its weight
not counted · shown, never moves the line
trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average
left of the break: 1 earlier poll, not on the time axis

The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.

Data table

The poll average as the edition published it for each stretch of days, and the trend line drawn over the same days.
Days	Average as it stood	Trend line
Oct 28, 2026	D+1.1	D+1.1
Oct 4–Oct 27, 2026	D+1.1	D+1.1
Oct 1–Oct 3, 2026	R+0.9	D+0.9 to D+1.1
Sep 27–Sep 30, 2026	R+1.7	D+0.2 to D+0.8
Sep 9–Sep 26, 2026	R+2.2	R+2.2 to R+0.1
Jun 24–Sep 8, 2026	R+2.5	R+2.5 to R+2.2
May 12–Jun 23, 2026	Even	Even to R+2.5

In governor races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at D+0.6.

Every poll on file · 8

newest added first

6 in the poll average · 2 shown, not counted

Pollster	Fielded	Sample	Result	Added	Weight	Source
●DHM ResearchGeneral	Oct 1, 2026	549 LV	D+2.0Tina Kotek 46Christine Drazan 44Don't know 7Brett Smith 3+1 other release	Oct 15	0.47	Poll release
DHM ResearchGeneral · Governor	Sep 11, 2026	600 LV	R+2.0Christine Drazan 45Tina Kotek 43	Oct 15	source not read by the model	Poll release
●GBAOGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan	Oct 4, 2026	800 LV	D+4.0Tina Kotek 46Christine Drazan 42Don't know 6Brett Smith 6	Oct 9	0.58	Poll release
●DHM ResearchGeneral	Sep 27, 2026	915 LV	R+1.0Christine Drazan 47Tina Kotek 46Don't know 5Brett Smith 3	Sep 30	0.58	Poll release
●DHM ResearchGeneral	Sep 9, 2026	600 LV	R+2.0Christine Drazan 45Tina Kotek 43Don't know 8Brett Smith 4	Sep 16	0.38	Poll release
FM3 ResearchGeneral · Governor · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan	Feb 4, 2026	1,065 LV	D+5.0Tina Kotek 45Christine Drazan 40+3 other releases	Jul 20	tests a different matchup	Poll release
●Public Opinion StrategiesGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan	Jun 24, 2026	600 RV	R+4.0Christine Drazan 48Tina Kotek 44	Jul 9	0.16	Poll release
●Hoffman Research GroupGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan	May 12, 2026	603 LV	Chris Dudley 48Tina Kotek 44+1 other release	May 15	0.09	Poll release

Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.

Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.