Senate
Chance of R control>99 in 100
Republicans are favored to hold control. Republicans hold 31 of 38 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 6.8 of 38 · 80% range 6–7
See all 38 districts →One state, every federal race and the provisional balance of power in its capitol.
Counties colored by the projected margin — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast above. Hover a county for its numbers.
| Jefferson | 147,417 (59.1%) | 97,680 (39.1%) | D+19.9 | 249,590 |
| Fayette | 60,643 (59.8%) | 39,003 (38.4%) | D+21.3 | 101,473 |
| Kenton | 22,695 (39.8%) | 33,362 (58.4%) | R+18.7 | 57,085 |
| Boone | 15,124 (31.8%) | 31,581 (66.4%) | R+34.6 | 47,561 |
| Warren | 15,693 (39.1%) | 23,719 (59.1%) | R+20.0 | 40,134 |
| Campbell | 13,859 (40.7%) | 19,620 (57.5%) | R+16.9 | 34,093 |
| Hardin | 12,301 (36.3%) | 21,011 (61.9%) | R+25.7 | 33,923 |
| Daviess | 11,565 (34.8%) | 21,059 (63.4%) | R+28.6 | 33,222 |
| Madison | 11,249 (35.3%) | 20,055 (62.9%) | R+27.6 | 31,878 |
| Bullitt | 7,597 (24.9%) | 22,337 (73.3%) | R+48.4 | 30,483 |
| Oldham | 10,557 (39.2%) | 15,912 (59.0%) | R+19.9 | 26,954 |
| McCracken | 7,491 (33.2%) | 14,645 (65.0%) | R+31.7 | 22,542 |
| Pulaski | 3,938 (17.6%) | 18,052 (80.6%) | R+63.0 | 22,393 |
| Scott | 7,728 (36.8%) | 12,900 (61.4%) | R+24.6 | 21,006 |
| Laurel | 2,991 (15.2%) | 16,337 (83.0%) | R+67.8 | 19,682 |
| Jessamine | 6,144 (32.7%) | 12,323 (65.5%) | R+32.9 | 18,806 |
| Franklin | 8,808 (48.5%) | 9,040 (49.7%) | R+1.3 | 18,175 |
| Shelby | 5,818 (33.5%) | 11,238 (64.7%) | R+31.2 | 17,369 |
| Pike | 3,009 (17.8%) | 13,589 (80.4%) | R+62.6 | 16,902 |
| Nelson | 4,832 (30.0%) | 10,998 (68.2%) | R+38.2 | 16,120 |
| Christian | 5,219 (34.1%) | 9,802 (64.1%) | R+30.0 | 15,296 |
| Boyd | 4,675 (31.6%) | 9,847 (66.6%) | R+35.0 | 14,788 |
| Hopkins | 3,626 (25.0%) | 10,605 (73.2%) | R+48.2 | 14,492 |
| Barren | 3,402 (24.3%) | 10,321 (73.9%) | R+49.5 | 13,975 |
| Henderson | 5,042 (36.3%) | 8,602 (61.9%) | R+25.6 | 13,894 |
| Clark | 4,160 (33.0%) | 8,225 (65.2%) | R+32.2 | 12,612 |
| Marshall | 2,755 (22.2%) | 9,443 (76.0%) | R+53.8 | 12,422 |
| Greenup | 3,125 (25.5%) | 8,916 (72.7%) | R+47.2 | 12,262 |
| Calloway | 3,820 (32.0%) | 7,919 (66.2%) | R+34.3 | 11,954 |
| Graves | 2,321 (19.7%) | 9,239 (78.5%) | R+58.8 | 11,772 |
| Floyd | 2,344 (21.2%) | 8,503 (77.0%) | R+55.8 | 11,046 |
| Whitley | 1,664 (15.6%) | 8,784 (82.6%) | R+66.9 | 10,640 |
| Woodford | 4,603 (43.5%) | 5,783 (54.7%) | R+11.1 | 10,576 |
| Boyle | 3,684 (36.3%) | 6,277 (61.9%) | R+25.6 | 10,144 |
| Meade | 2,456 (24.6%) | 7,331 (73.6%) | R+48.9 | 9,966 |
| Muhlenberg | 2,277 (23.6%) | 7,213 (74.6%) | R+51.1 | 9,664 |
| Knox | 1,363 (14.7%) | 7,756 (83.5%) | R+68.9 | 9,286 |
| Anderson | 2,372 (25.7%) | 6,701 (72.5%) | R+46.9 | 9,239 |
| Montgomery | 2,479 (27.4%) | 6,406 (70.8%) | R+43.4 | 9,048 |
| Logan | 2,057 (23.3%) | 6,611 (74.9%) | R+51.6 | 8,827 |
| Taylor | 1,930 (22.3%) | 6,565 (75.9%) | R+53.6 | 8,651 |
| Grayson | 1,655 (19.4%) | 6,728 (78.8%) | R+59.4 | 8,537 |
| Mercer | 2,109 (25.2%) | 6,099 (73.0%) | R+47.7 | 8,358 |
| Spencer | 1,778 (21.9%) | 6,178 (76.3%) | R+54.3 | 8,102 |
| Grant | 1,469 (18.2%) | 6,478 (80.0%) | R+61.9 | 8,093 |
| Carter | 1,727 (21.4%) | 6,189 (76.8%) | R+55.4 | 8,061 |
| Lincoln | 1,545 (19.8%) | 6,103 (78.4%) | R+58.5 | 7,788 |
| Ohio | 1,570 (20.3%) | 6,009 (77.9%) | R+57.5 | 7,718 |
| Harlan | 895 (12.2%) | 6,302 (86.0%) | R+73.8 | 7,329 |
| Breckinridge | 1,530 (21.6%) | 5,433 (76.6%) | R+55.1 | 7,091 |
| Perry | 1,471 (20.9%) | 5,455 (77.3%) | R+56.5 | 7,053 |
| Rowan | 2,595 (37.2%) | 4,248 (61.0%) | R+23.7 | 6,968 |
| Johnson | 1,006 (14.8%) | 5,664 (83.4%) | R+68.6 | 6,792 |
| Bourbon | 2,283 (33.9%) | 4,326 (64.3%) | R+30.4 | 6,730 |
| Allen | 1,115 (16.8%) | 5,413 (81.4%) | R+64.7 | 6,648 |
| Bell | 1,067 (16.2%) | 5,404 (82.0%) | R+65.8 | 6,590 |
| Marion | 1,871 (29.1%) | 4,436 (69.1%) | R+39.9 | 6,423 |
| Harrison | 1,679 (26.4%) | 4,571 (71.8%) | R+45.4 | 6,365 |
| Adair | 934 (14.8%) | 5,284 (83.4%) | R+68.7 | 6,332 |
| Garrard | 1,277 (20.3%) | 4,904 (77.9%) | R+57.6 | 6,294 |
| Russell | 885 (14.1%) | 5,279 (84.1%) | R+70.0 | 6,277 |
| Simpson | 1,802 (29.1%) | 4,281 (69.1%) | R+40.0 | 6,194 |
| Wayne | 1,073 (17.4%) | 4,980 (80.8%) | R+63.4 | 6,164 |
| Letcher | 1,094 (18.4%) | 4,749 (79.8%) | R+61.4 | 5,950 |
| Hart | 1,237 (20.8%) | 4,591 (77.4%) | R+56.5 | 5,935 |
| Henry | 1,402 (24.6%) | 4,194 (73.6%) | R+49.0 | 5,699 |
| Mason | 1,610 (28.9%) | 3,865 (69.3%) | R+40.4 | 5,575 |
| Rockcastle | 735 (13.5%) | 4,619 (84.7%) | R+71.2 | 5,452 |
| Clay | 516 (9.7%) | 4,694 (88.5%) | R+78.7 | 5,306 |
| Larue | 1,029 (20.1%) | 4,002 (78.1%) | R+58.0 | 5,123 |
| Trigg | 1,227 (24.2%) | 3,761 (74.1%) | R+49.9 | 5,079 |
| Casey | 594 (11.9%) | 4,313 (86.3%) | R+74.4 | 4,997 |
| Fleming | 990 (20.0%) | 3,862 (78.2%) | R+58.1 | 4,941 |
| Pendleton | 898 (18.4%) | 3,884 (79.8%) | R+61.3 | 4,870 |
| Lawrence | 777 (16.7%) | 3,778 (81.4%) | R+64.7 | 4,639 |
| Washington | 1,141 (25.5%) | 3,252 (72.7%) | R+47.2 | 4,474 |
| Estill | 842 (19.0%) | 3,517 (79.2%) | R+60.3 | 4,439 |
| Edmonson | 835 (18.9%) | 3,495 (79.3%) | R+60.3 | 4,409 |
| McCreary | 467 (10.7%) | 3,838 (87.5%) | R+76.9 | 4,384 |
| Caldwell | 934 (21.4%) | 3,355 (76.8%) | R+55.4 | 4,368 |
| Union | 922 (21.6%) | 3,277 (76.6%) | R+55.1 | 4,276 |
| Knott | 889 (21.0%) | 3,272 (77.2%) | R+56.2 | 4,237 |
| Butler | 714 (17.0%) | 3,405 (81.2%) | R+64.1 | 4,194 |
| Jackson | 373 (8.9%) | 3,740 (89.3%) | R+80.4 | 4,188 |
| Green | 587 (14.2%) | 3,473 (84.0%) | R+69.8 | 4,134 |
| Lewis | 501 (12.4%) | 3,464 (85.8%) | R+73.4 | 4,038 |
| Webster | 864 (22.0%) | 2,987 (76.2%) | R+54.1 | 3,922 |
| Owen | 738 (19.0%) | 3,070 (79.2%) | R+60.1 | 3,878 |
| Bath | 969 (25.5%) | 2,767 (72.7%) | R+47.3 | 3,804 |
| Morgan | 717 (18.9%) | 3,007 (79.3%) | R+60.4 | 3,792 |
| Powell | 885 (23.4%) | 2,830 (74.8%) | R+51.4 | 3,783 |
| Monroe | 426 (11.4%) | 3,254 (86.8%) | R+75.5 | 3,747 |
| Magoffin | 706 (19.0%) | 2,950 (79.2%) | R+60.3 | 3,723 |
| Metcalfe | 659 (18.2%) | 2,893 (80.0%) | R+61.7 | 3,617 |
| Breathitt | 760 (21.1%) | 2,784 (77.1%) | R+56.1 | 3,609 |
| Todd | 781 (21.6%) | 2,762 (76.6%) | R+54.9 | 3,608 |
| Livingston | 652 (18.6%) | 2,794 (79.6%) | R+61.1 | 3,509 |
| Clinton | 402 (11.7%) | 2,980 (86.5%) | R+74.8 | 3,444 |
| Hancock | 891 (27.2%) | 2,320 (70.9%) | R+43.7 | 3,270 |
| McLean | 730 (22.3%) | 2,481 (75.9%) | R+53.6 | 3,270 |
| Leslie | 276 (9.0%) | 2,744 (89.2%) | R+80.2 | 3,075 |
| Trimble | 684 (22.8%) | 2,261 (75.4%) | R+52.6 | 2,999 |
| Lyon | 712 (24.1%) | 2,190 (74.1%) | R+50.0 | 2,955 |
| Bracken | 522 (17.8%) | 2,351 (80.3%) | R+62.5 | 2,926 |
| Ballard | 524 (18.2%) | 2,309 (80.0%) | R+61.9 | 2,885 |
| Carroll | 722 (25.4%) | 2,068 (72.8%) | R+47.4 | 2,841 |
| Crittenden | 455 (16.1%) | 2,323 (82.1%) | R+66.0 | 2,829 |
| Gallatin | 567 (20.5%) | 2,148 (77.7%) | R+57.2 | 2,765 |
| Martin | 217 (8.4%) | 2,317 (89.8%) | R+81.4 | 2,580 |
| Cumberland | 356 (14.7%) | 2,027 (83.5%) | R+68.9 | 2,427 |
| Nicholas | 618 (26.4%) | 1,683 (71.8%) | R+45.4 | 2,343 |
| Menifee | 508 (21.9%) | 1,774 (76.3%) | R+54.5 | 2,324 |
| Wolfe | 528 (25.7%) | 1,493 (72.5%) | R+46.9 | 2,058 |
| Elliott | 413 (20.1%) | 1,605 (78.1%) | R+58.0 | 2,055 |
| Lee | 306 (16.1%) | 1,559 (82.1%) | R+66.0 | 1,899 |
| Carlisle | 303 (16.4%) | 1,506 (81.8%) | R+65.3 | 1,842 |
| Fulton | 472 (31.2%) | 1,015 (67.0%) | R+35.9 | 1,514 |
| Hickman | 292 (20.0%) | 1,142 (78.2%) | R+58.2 | 1,460 |
| Owsley | 146 (11.2%) | 1,129 (87.0%) | R+75.7 | 1,298 |
| Robertson | 162 (20.1%) | 630 (78.1%) | R+58.0 | 807 |
Model benchmark — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast.
Both chambers carry the Call the Map state legislature forecast — the same model the Chamber Board publishes.
Republicans are favored to hold control. Republicans hold 31 of 38 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 6.8 of 38 · 80% range 6–7
See all 38 districts →Republicans are favored to hold control. Republicans hold 80 of 100 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 20.5 of 100 · 80% range 16–22
See all 100 districts →Chamber-by-chamber detail for every state lives on the full Chamber Board. Control today: NCSL · 2026 State & Legislative Partisan Composition · Jan. 27, 2026
Counties colored by the actual 2024 presidential result — counted votes, not a projection. Hover a county for its numbers.
The county tables and shift arrows across this site measure against these baselines. No president is on the 2026 ballot; this is the reference line every other race here is measured against.
Ballot measures — coming with the Ballotpedia layer.
Trifecta nowSplit control
| Chamber | Now | Projected |
|---|---|---|
| Senate | R | R |
| House | R | R |