Senate
Chance of D control98 in 100
Democrats are favored to hold control. Democrats hold 25 of 36 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 28.2 of 36 · 80% range 25–32
See all 36 districts →One state, every federal race and the provisional balance of power in its capitol.
No U.S. Senate seat in Connecticutis on the 2026 ballot — both of the state's seats are mid-cycle. Senate control still runs through the 35 races on the national Senate map.
Counties colored by the projected margin — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast above. Hover a county for its numbers.
| Capitol | 187,408 (55.1%) | 142,246 (41.8%) | D+13.3 | 340,200 |
| Western Connecticut | 116,590 (52.7%) | 97,703 (44.2%) | D+8.5 | 221,149 |
| South Central Connecticut | 102,606 (54.0%) | 81,488 (42.9%) | D+11.1 | 189,984 |
| Naugatuck Valley | 63,418 (40.6%) | 87,776 (56.3%) | R+15.6 | 156,031 |
| Greater Bridgeport | 53,530 (54.5%) | 41,706 (42.4%) | D+12.0 | 98,283 |
| Southeastern Connecticut | 49,991 (50.9%) | 45,203 (46.0%) | D+4.9 | 98,239 |
| Lower Connecticut River Valley | 38,482 (51.3%) | 34,140 (45.6%) | D+5.8 | 74,945 |
| Northwest Hills | 20,530 (44.7%) | 24,008 (52.2%) | R+7.6 | 45,963 |
| Northeastern Connecticut | 13,448 (36.8%) | 21,975 (60.1%) | R+23.3 | 36,556 |
Model benchmark — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast.
Both chambers carry the Call the Map state legislature forecast — the same model the Chamber Board publishes.
Democrats are favored to hold control. Democrats hold 25 of 36 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 28.2 of 36 · 80% range 25–32
See all 36 districts →Democrats are favored to hold control. Democrats hold 102 of 151 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 115.2 of 151 · 80% range 106–125
See all 151 districts →Chamber-by-chamber detail for every state lives on the full Chamber Board. Control today: NCSL · 2026 State & Legislative Partisan Composition · Jan. 27, 2026
Counties colored by the actual 2024 presidential result — counted votes, not a projection. Hover a county for its numbers.
The county tables and shift arrows across this site measure against these baselines. No president is on the 2026 ballot; this is the reference line every other race here is measured against.
Ballot measures — coming with the Ballotpedia layer.
Trifecta nowDemocratic trifecta
| Chamber | Now | Projected |
|---|---|---|
| Senate | D | D |
| House | D | D |