The Governor · Connecticut
Projected turnout: 1,261,351 votes · model estimate, not counted votes.
Displayed shares include the model's Other-vote allowance and therefore add to 100%. Interval endpoints are the model's 10th and 90th percentiles, not a polling margin of error.
SURE 39 · thin evidence
How reliable is the evidence behind this race's number — not who wins. A safe seat with no polls can score low while its forecast is easy.
| Effective poll evidence | 0.46 |
|---|---|
| Race-specific error SD | 6.1 points |
| Historically calibrated 80% half-range | ±7.5 |
| Model treatment | provisional widen-only chamber fallback |
| ✓ Fundamentals✓ Environment◐ Polls✗ Money (FEC)✓ Roster settled | |
SURE v3 — historically calibrated evidence-conditioned uncertainty · generated 2026-07-27. SURE rates the EVIDENCE behind a race's number, not the outcome: a safe seat with no polls can score low while its forecast is easy. Never a second win probability. It changes only idiosyncratic uncertainty, never the center. Senate marginal intervals are historically calibrated under the stated 0-120 day assumptions; House/Governor conditioning is provisional and widen-only until chamber-specific history passes the same gates.
County by county
Counties colored by the projected margin — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast above. Hover a county for its numbers.
| County | Margin | Ned Lamont | Ryan Fazio | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capitol | D+13.3 | 187,408 | 142,246 | 340,200 |
| Western Connecticut | D+8.5 | 116,590 | 97,703 | 221,149 |
| South Central Connecticut | D+11.1 | 102,606 | 81,488 | 189,984 |
| Naugatuck Valley | R+15.6 | 63,418 | 87,776 | 156,031 |
| Greater Bridgeport | D+12.0 | 53,530 | 41,706 | 98,283 |
| Southeastern Connecticut | D+4.9 | 49,991 | 45,203 | 98,239 |
| Lower Connecticut River Valley | D+5.8 | 38,482 | 34,140 | 74,945 |
| Northwest Hills | R+7.6 | 20,530 | 24,008 | 45,963 |
| Northeastern Connecticut | R+23.3 | 13,448 | 21,975 | 36,556 |
All 9 counties, largest projected vote pool first. Projected: the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast above. Model estimate, not counted votes.
State of the race
Call the Map currently has Lamont ahead of Fazio by D+5.5, with an 85 in 100 chance to win. The seat is currently held by a Democrat. That result would keep the seat with Democrats. The current 1-poll average is D+13.0.
Not competitive.
- CTM forecast
- Likely D hold · 85 in 100
- Seat
- Dem.-held · projected hold
- Forecast range
- R+1.2 to D+12.3
- Polling
- D+13.0 · 1 poll
How the race is moving
85%D win probability today
Since the Jul 21 edition: margin 10.0 pts toward R · win probability -13 pts D
Tracked editions only. The pale segment marks the time remaining to Election Day; it is not fabricated future data. Hover, tap, or focus a chart and use the arrow keys for each edition's exact values.
How the margin was built
Five contributions, summing to the forecast D+5.5. Every model adjustment is published here — including candidate-quality shifts. Read how the whole margin is built →
TWIN neighbours
TWIN means Typology-Weighted Inference from Neighbors, Call the Map’s comparable-unit matching engine for any kind of race. It borrows poll residuals only—never centers, terrain, or outcomes. Similarity is demographic and behavioural, not geographic, and each contribution decays with similarity distance. Borrowed evidence always has lower precision than a race’s own polling.
Signals at a glance
- 2024 presidential
- D+14.5
- Cook PVI
- D+8.0
- Ratings consensus
- Cook: Solid D · Sabato: Safe D · Inside Elections: Solid D
Recent polling
1 poll · weighted average D+13 · Full polling for this race →