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Forecast6 days out
Race polling · GOV-CT

Connecticut Governor polls 2026

Ned Lamont (D) vs Ryan Fazio (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.

Poll averageD+17.2the polls’ average, each as published · same figure as the race page
Polls1414 on file · 12 in the poll average · 2 not counted
Latest field dateOct 12Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-10-12 (16 days old)
EditionOct 28the poll average and its weights as of this edition

The polls and the poll average

drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its poll

Oct 28, 2026D+17.2today's poll average of 12 polls

R+5EvenD+5D+10D+15D+20D+25Jul ’26AugSepOct
  • poll in the average · area is its weight
  • trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average

The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.

Data table
DaysAverage as it stoodTrend line
Oct 28, 2026D+17.2D+17.2
Oct 12–Oct 27, 2026D+17.2D+17.2
Oct 7–Oct 11, 2026D+15.8D+16.8 to D+17.2
Sep 21–Oct 6, 2026D+14.2D+14.2 to D+16.7
Sep 17–Sep 20, 2026D+13.9D+14.1
Sep 14–Sep 16, 2026D+16.5D+14.3 to D+14.1
Sep 8–Sep 13, 2026D+16.1D+15.4 to D+14.5
Aug 24–Sep 7, 2026D+16.9D+16.9 to D+15.6
Jul 26–Aug 23, 2026D+17.4D+17.4 to D+17.0
Jun 23–Jul 25, 2026D+13.0D+13.0 to D+17.4

In governor races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which leaves the average it reads the same for this race.

Every poll on file · 14

newest added first

12 in the poll average · 2 shown, not counted · 7 primary polls on file, not listed here

PollsterFieldedSampleResultAddedWeightSource
●GreatBlue ResearchGeneral— LVD+27.2Ned Lamont 61.5Ryan Fazio 34.3Don't know 4.2+1 other release0.72Poll release
●Wesleyan University/YouGovGeneral1,000 RVD+21.0Ned Lamont 53Ryan Fazio 320.72Poll document
Wesleyan University Survey Lab/YouGovGeneral · Governor— LVD+23.0Ned Lamont 57Ryan Fazio 34no sample size publishedPoll release
●YouGovGeneral1,000 RVD+20.9Ned Lamont 52.6Ryan Fazio 31.7Don't know 11.1Would not vote 4.4Someone else 0.40.68Poll release
●Emerson CollegeGeneral800 LVD+13.6Ned Lamont 51.39Ryan Fazio 37.79Don't know 10.830.64Poll release
●Quinnipiac UniversityGeneral1,225 LVD+20.0Ned Lamont 58Ryan Fazio 38Don't know 3Would not vote 0Someone else 00.79Poll release
●University of New Hampshire Survey CenterGeneral540 LVD+17.0Ned Lamont 55Ryan Fazio 38Don't know 6Someone else 10.41Poll release
●co/efficientGeneral979 LVD+7.0Ned Lamont 48Ryan Fazio 41Don't know 110.53Poll release
●Quinnipiac UniversityGeneral1,288 LVD+17.0Ned Lamont 55Ryan Fazio 38Don't know 70.59Poll release
●GreatBlue ResearchGeneral1,000 RVD+15.7Ned Lamont 52.2Ryan Fazio 36.5Don't know 11.40.48Poll document
●University of New Hampshire Survey CenterGeneral803 LVD+15.0Ned Lamont 52Ryan Fazio 37Don't know 9Someone else 30.36Poll release
●GreatBlue ResearchGeneral— LVJosh Elliott 48.8Ryan Fazio 34.3+3 other releases0.29Poll release

Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.

Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.