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FORECAST51 DAYS OUT
Race polling · GOV-CT

Connecticut Governor polls

Ned Lamont (D) vs Ryan Fazio (R). The polls the model aggregates, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.

Adjusted aggregateD+14.2same figure as the race page
Polls44 recorded polls · 4 eligible for the aggregate · 4 with positive weight
Latest field dateSep 8Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-09-08 (5 days old)
EditionSep 13weights and corrections as of this edition

The polls the model reads

hover, tap or Tab to any poll
last 30 daysR+5EVEND+5D+10D+15D+20D+25Jul ’26AugSep
  • counted poll · area is its model weight
  • weight exactly zero · shown, not counted
  • poll trend · smoothed across nearby polls, larger and non-partisan ones count more · the recent end firms up as polls arrive
  • published average
  • 30 days before this edition

Every poll on file · 5

newest first

4 in the aggregate · 1 shown, not counted · 7 primary polls on file, not listed here

PollsterFieldedAddedSampleResultWeightSource
GreatBlue ResearchGeneral1,000 RVNed Lamont 52.2Ryan Fazio 36.5Don't know 11.42d ago0.602Poll document
University of New Hampshire Survey CenterGeneral803 LVNed Lamont 52Ryan Fazio 37Don't know 9Someone else 3+1 other release0.292Poll release
GreatBlue ResearchGeneral LVJosh Elliott 48.8Ryan Fazio 34.3+4 other releases0.141Poll release
University of New Hampshire Survey CenterGeneral821 LVNed Lamont 49Ryan Fazio 36Don't know 12Someone else 2+1 other release0.038Poll release
OnMessage Inc.General · REP sponsor · REP partisan600 LVNed Lamont 50Erin Stewart 42Don't know 8not in the aggregatePoll release

Archive source date 2026-09-13. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.