Senate
Chance of D control>99 in 100
Democrats are favored to hold control. Democrats hold 40 of 59 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 41.4 of 59 · 80% range 40–45
See all 59 districts →One state, every federal race and the provisional balance of power in its capitol.
Counties colored by the projected margin — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast above. Hover a county for its numbers.
| Cook | 1,034,319 (69.4%) | 398,405 (26.8%) | D+42.7 | 1,489,318 |
| DuPage | 180,469 (55.4%) | 132,755 (40.8%) | D+14.7 | 325,597 |
| Will | 117,251 (49.8%) | 109,117 (46.4%) | D+3.5 | 235,310 |
| Lake | 131,999 (58.9%) | 83,469 (37.3%) | D+21.7 | 223,979 |
| Kane | 86,150 (53.5%) | 68,745 (42.7%) | D+10.8 | 161,013 |
| McHenry | 54,112 (46.2%) | 58,524 (50.0%) | R+3.8 | 117,085 |
| Madison | 40,459 (42.1%) | 51,906 (54.1%) | R+11.9 | 96,014 |
| Winnebago | 42,974 (49.0%) | 41,345 (47.2%) | D+1.9 | 87,650 |
| St. Clair | 45,518 (52.5%) | 37,832 (43.7%) | D+8.9 | 86,642 |
| Sangamon | 33,093 (46.2%) | 35,760 (50.0%) | R+3.7 | 71,573 |
| Champaign | 38,733 (60.4%) | 23,002 (35.8%) | D+24.5 | 64,174 |
| McLean | 31,838 (51.0%) | 28,185 (45.2%) | D+5.9 | 62,394 |
| Peoria | 29,084 (51.0%) | 25,759 (45.2%) | D+5.8 | 57,009 |
| Tazewell | 17,506 (35.6%) | 29,838 (60.6%) | R+25.1 | 49,214 |
| Kendall | 23,712 (49.6%) | 22,242 (46.6%) | D+3.1 | 47,769 |
| Rock Island | 24,497 (53.5%) | 19,573 (42.7%) | D+10.7 | 45,811 |
| LaSalle | 15,130 (39.9%) | 21,393 (56.3%) | R+16.5 | 37,966 |
| Kankakee | 13,304 (38.7%) | 19,794 (57.5%) | R+18.9 | 34,405 |
| DeKalb | 17,027 (49.8%) | 15,842 (46.4%) | D+3.5 | 34,167 |
| Macon | 12,916 (39.4%) | 18,586 (56.8%) | R+17.3 | 32,746 |
| Williamson | 7,092 (29.7%) | 15,894 (66.5%) | R+36.8 | 23,894 |
| Adams | 5,824 (25.3%) | 16,289 (70.9%) | R+45.5 | 22,986 |
| Vermilion | 6,679 (31.3%) | 13,876 (64.9%) | R+33.7 | 21,367 |
| Grundy | 6,597 (34.3%) | 11,890 (61.9%) | R+27.5 | 19,217 |
| Whiteside | 7,998 (41.8%) | 10,412 (54.4%) | R+12.6 | 19,137 |
| Ogle | 6,413 (34.4%) | 11,523 (61.8%) | R+27.4 | 18,645 |
| Henry | 6,672 (36.8%) | 10,785 (59.4%) | R+22.7 | 18,147 |
| Boone | 7,293 (41.6%) | 9,576 (54.6%) | R+13.0 | 17,535 |
| Macoupin | 4,989 (29.4%) | 11,313 (66.8%) | R+37.3 | 16,946 |
| Jackson | 8,141 (50.3%) | 7,415 (45.9%) | D+4.5 | 16,170 |
| Knox | 7,107 (44.3%) | 8,340 (51.9%) | R+7.7 | 16,057 |
| Coles | 5,403 (34.8%) | 9,552 (61.4%) | R+26.7 | 15,546 |
| Woodford | 4,286 (28.0%) | 10,421 (68.2%) | R+40.1 | 15,288 |
| Stephenson | 5,971 (39.3%) | 8,633 (56.9%) | R+17.5 | 15,181 |
| Monroe | 4,656 (30.8%) | 9,895 (65.4%) | R+34.6 | 15,126 |
| Clinton | 3,205 (23.0%) | 10,179 (73.2%) | R+50.1 | 13,913 |
| Effingham | 2,602 (18.9%) | 10,676 (77.3%) | R+58.5 | 13,803 |
| Franklin | 3,068 (24.0%) | 9,251 (72.2%) | R+48.3 | 12,806 |
| Marion | 2,967 (24.5%) | 8,705 (71.7%) | R+47.3 | 12,133 |
| Jefferson | 3,049 (25.3%) | 8,541 (70.9%) | R+45.6 | 12,048 |
| Livingston | 3,106 (25.9%) | 8,414 (70.3%) | R+44.3 | 11,975 |
| Fulton | 4,336 (37.1%) | 6,905 (59.1%) | R+22.0 | 11,685 |
| Lee | 4,410 (37.9%) | 6,798 (58.3%) | R+20.5 | 11,651 |
| Bureau | 4,267 (36.8%) | 6,873 (59.4%) | R+22.5 | 11,580 |
| Christian | 2,899 (25.8%) | 7,922 (70.4%) | R+44.7 | 11,248 |
| Morgan | 3,473 (32.7%) | 6,731 (63.5%) | R+30.7 | 10,607 |
| Randolph | 2,488 (24.0%) | 7,496 (72.2%) | R+48.3 | 10,378 |
| Iroquois | 1,967 (20.4%) | 7,303 (75.8%) | R+55.4 | 9,636 |
| Montgomery | 2,586 (27.1%) | 6,600 (69.1%) | R+42.0 | 9,549 |
| Logan | 2,563 (28.2%) | 6,183 (68.0%) | R+39.8 | 9,091 |
| Jo Daviess | 3,623 (40.4%) | 5,004 (55.8%) | R+15.4 | 8,968 |
| McDonough | 3,416 (39.5%) | 4,901 (56.7%) | R+17.2 | 8,646 |
| Jersey | 2,030 (24.0%) | 6,113 (72.2%) | R+48.2 | 8,465 |
| Shelby | 1,616 (19.1%) | 6,509 (77.1%) | R+57.9 | 8,446 |
| Saline | 1,888 (24.6%) | 5,497 (71.6%) | R+47.0 | 7,677 |
| Fayette | 1,174 (16.9%) | 5,514 (79.3%) | R+62.4 | 6,952 |
| Piatt | 2,311 (33.6%) | 4,304 (62.6%) | R+29.0 | 6,876 |
| Perry | 1,561 (23.3%) | 4,876 (72.9%) | R+49.5 | 6,691 |
| Hancock | 1,575 (24.0%) | 4,735 (72.2%) | R+48.2 | 6,559 |
| Crawford | 1,474 (22.8%) | 4,744 (73.4%) | R+50.6 | 6,464 |
| Douglas | 1,582 (26.0%) | 4,272 (70.2%) | R+44.2 | 6,085 |
| Mercer | 2,140 (35.4%) | 3,673 (60.8%) | R+25.4 | 6,043 |
| Wayne | 821 (13.7%) | 4,938 (82.5%) | R+68.8 | 5,986 |
| Union | 1,644 (27.6%) | 4,085 (68.6%) | R+41.0 | 5,955 |
| Clark | 1,387 (23.4%) | 4,327 (72.8%) | R+49.5 | 5,940 |
| Bond | 1,541 (26.7%) | 4,018 (69.5%) | R+42.9 | 5,779 |
| Edgar | 1,305 (22.8%) | 4,202 (73.4%) | R+50.6 | 5,725 |
| Carroll | 1,881 (33.2%) | 3,577 (63.0%) | R+29.9 | 5,674 |
| Richland | 1,252 (22.3%) | 4,142 (73.9%) | R+51.5 | 5,607 |
| De Witt | 1,488 (26.6%) | 3,901 (69.6%) | R+43.1 | 5,602 |
| Washington | 1,120 (20.5%) | 4,147 (75.7%) | R+55.3 | 5,475 |
| Pike | 940 (17.3%) | 4,288 (78.9%) | R+61.6 | 5,435 |
| Warren | 1,968 (36.6%) | 3,209 (59.6%) | R+23.1 | 5,381 |
| White | 998 (19.5%) | 3,923 (76.7%) | R+57.2 | 5,115 |
| Clay | 758 (15.5%) | 3,955 (80.7%) | R+65.3 | 4,899 |
| Massac | 1,200 (24.8%) | 3,450 (71.4%) | R+46.6 | 4,834 |
| Ford | 1,184 (25.0%) | 3,377 (71.2%) | R+46.2 | 4,741 |
| Moultrie | 1,157 (24.5%) | 3,387 (71.7%) | R+47.2 | 4,723 |
| Menard | 1,319 (28.4%) | 3,155 (67.8%) | R+39.5 | 4,651 |
| Mason | 1,287 (27.9%) | 3,151 (68.3%) | R+40.4 | 4,613 |
| Marshall | 1,376 (31.0%) | 2,892 (65.2%) | R+34.2 | 4,437 |
| Johnson | 885 (20.0%) | 3,366 (76.2%) | R+56.1 | 4,419 |
| Lawrence | 927 (21.0%) | 3,324 (75.2%) | R+54.2 | 4,419 |
| Greene | 885 (20.2%) | 3,332 (76.0%) | R+55.8 | 4,384 |
| Cumberland | 763 (18.3%) | 3,255 (77.9%) | R+59.6 | 4,177 |
| Jasper | 655 (16.7%) | 3,121 (79.5%) | R+62.8 | 3,925 |
| Wabash | 861 (22.1%) | 2,884 (74.1%) | R+52.0 | 3,893 |
| Cass | 1,047 (27.6%) | 2,604 (68.6%) | R+41.0 | 3,795 |
| Hamilton | 533 (17.6%) | 2,379 (78.6%) | R+61.0 | 3,027 |
| Schuyler | 698 (25.7%) | 1,919 (70.6%) | R+44.9 | 2,720 |
| Henderson | 748 (29.8%) | 1,664 (66.4%) | R+36.5 | 2,507 |
| Putnam | 907 (37.6%) | 1,413 (58.6%) | R+21.0 | 2,412 |
| Edwards | 326 (13.7%) | 1,965 (82.5%) | R+68.8 | 2,381 |
| Stark | 527 (26.4%) | 1,396 (69.8%) | R+43.5 | 1,999 |
| Calhoun | 413 (21.3%) | 1,454 (74.9%) | R+53.7 | 1,941 |
| Scott | 353 (18.8%) | 1,449 (77.4%) | R+58.5 | 1,873 |
| Gallatin | 405 (22.1%) | 1,356 (74.1%) | R+51.9 | 1,831 |
| Brown | 338 (19.0%) | 1,372 (77.2%) | R+58.2 | 1,778 |
| Pulaski | 552 (32.1%) | 1,104 (64.1%) | R+32.0 | 1,721 |
| Alexander | 650 (39.5%) | 932 (56.7%) | R+17.1 | 1,644 |
| Pope | 297 (19.2%) | 1,188 (76.9%) | R+57.8 | 1,544 |
| Hardin | 258 (18.5%) | 1,083 (77.7%) | R+59.1 | 1,394 |
Model benchmark — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast.
Counties colored by the projected margin — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast above. Hover a county for its numbers.
Both chambers carry the Call the Map state legislature forecast — the same model the Chamber Board publishes.
Democrats are favored to hold control. Democrats hold 40 of 59 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 41.4 of 59 · 80% range 40–45
See all 59 districts →Democrats are favored to hold control. Democrats hold 78 of 118 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 79.6 of 118 · 80% range 74–85
See all 118 districts →Chamber-by-chamber detail for every state lives on the full Chamber Board. Control today: NCSL · 2026 State & Legislative Partisan Composition · Jan. 27, 2026
Counties colored by the actual 2024 presidential result — counted votes, not a projection. Hover a county for its numbers.
The county tables and shift arrows across this site measure against these baselines. No president is on the 2026 ballot; this is the reference line every other race here is measured against.
Ballot measures — coming with the Ballotpedia layer.
Trifecta nowDemocratic trifecta
| Chamber | Now | Projected |
|---|---|---|
| Senate | D | D |
| House | D | D |