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FORECAST26 DAYS OUT
Race polling · SEN-IL

Illinois Senate polls

Juliana Stratton (D) vs Don Tracy (R). The polls in the forecast's poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.

Poll averageD+13.0the average the forecast uses · same figure as the race page
Polls11 recorded poll · 1 in the poll average
Latest field dateOct 1Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-10-01 (7 days old)
EditionOct 8the poll average and its weights as of this edition

The polls and the poll average

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last 30 daysR+5EVEND+5D+10D+15Oct ’26
  • poll in the average · area is its weight in it
  • not in the average · shown, not counted
  • poll average, day by day · each day from the polls fielded by then, ending on today's figure
  • 30 days before this edition

The line is the poll average as it stood on each day: the forecast's own rule applied to the polls fielded by then, each weighted as of that day. It starts at the first poll it counts, steps on a poll's own field date and not before, and ends on today's figure. Hover for each day's figure.

Every poll on file · 1

newest first

1 in the poll average · 17 primary polls on file, not listed here

PollsterFieldedSampleResultAddedWeightSource
●Public Policy PollingGeneral · Senate · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan569 LVD+13.0Juliana Stratton 49Don Tracy 36+1 other release2d ago0.60Poll release

Archive source date 2026-10-08. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.