Senate
Chance of R control>99 in 100
Republicans are favored to hold control. Republicans hold 29 of 35 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 5.1 of 35 · 80% range 4–6
See all 35 districts →One state, every federal race and the provisional balance of power in its capitol.
Counties colored by the projected margin — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast above. Hover a county for its numbers.
| Ada | 76,772 (44.5%) | 87,047 (50.5%) | R+6.0 | 172,441 |
| Canyon | 17,255 (26.5%) | 44,636 (68.5%) | R+42.0 | 65,148 |
| Kootenai | 15,015 (24.2%) | 44,020 (70.8%) | R+46.7 | 62,142 |
| Bonneville | 9,558 (26.3%) | 25,014 (68.7%) | R+42.5 | 36,392 |
| Bannock | 9,467 (36.7%) | 15,026 (58.3%) | R+21.6 | 25,782 |
| Twin Falls | 6,001 (24.9%) | 16,901 (70.1%) | R+45.2 | 24,107 |
| Bonner | 5,194 (27.1%) | 13,004 (67.9%) | R+40.8 | 19,156 |
| Bingham | 2,582 (19.4%) | 10,067 (75.6%) | R+56.2 | 13,315 |
| Latah | 6,105 (46.3%) | 6,420 (48.7%) | R+2.4 | 13,184 |
| Nez Perce | 3,935 (30.3%) | 8,402 (64.7%) | R+34.4 | 12,986 |
| Madison | 1,805 (16.1%) | 8,831 (78.9%) | R+62.7 | 11,196 |
| Jefferson | 1,207 (11.8%) | 8,487 (83.2%) | R+71.4 | 10,204 |
| Blaine | 5,458 (64.7%) | 2,561 (30.3%) | D+34.3 | 8,441 |
| Payette | 1,360 (17.9%) | 5,847 (77.1%) | R+59.2 | 7,586 |
| Elmore | 1,719 (25.0%) | 4,821 (70.0%) | R+45.0 | 6,884 |
| Gem | 1,127 (16.5%) | 5,381 (78.6%) | R+62.1 | 6,850 |
| Idaho | 962 (15.1%) | 5,079 (79.9%) | R+64.7 | 6,359 |
| Cassia | 889 (14.4%) | 4,968 (80.6%) | R+66.2 | 6,165 |
| Minidoka | 912 (17.8%) | 3,958 (77.2%) | R+59.4 | 5,126 |
| Jerome | 1,160 (22.6%) | 3,709 (72.4%) | R+49.7 | 5,125 |
| Valley | 1,882 (40.3%) | 2,555 (54.7%) | R+14.4 | 4,670 |
| Franklin | 445 (9.6%) | 3,957 (85.4%) | R+75.8 | 4,634 |
| Boundary | 776 (16.9%) | 3,581 (78.1%) | R+61.2 | 4,586 |
| Fremont | 624 (14.2%) | 3,545 (80.8%) | R+66.5 | 4,388 |
| Teton | 2,253 (52.2%) | 1,851 (42.8%) | D+9.3 | 4,320 |
| Shoshone | 997 (25.2%) | 2,759 (69.8%) | R+44.6 | 3,954 |
| Gooding | 732 (19.2%) | 2,894 (75.8%) | R+56.6 | 3,817 |
| Washington | 668 (18.6%) | 2,735 (76.4%) | R+57.7 | 3,582 |
| Benewah | 616 (18.6%) | 2,536 (76.4%) | R+57.9 | 3,318 |
| Owyhee | 500 (15.7%) | 2,533 (79.3%) | R+63.7 | 3,193 |
| Boise | 718 (22.7%) | 2,291 (72.3%) | R+49.7 | 3,167 |
| Lemhi | 677 (21.5%) | 2,309 (73.5%) | R+51.9 | 3,143 |
| Clearwater | 515 (18.1%) | 2,193 (76.9%) | R+58.8 | 2,850 |
| Caribou | 286 (12.8%) | 1,832 (82.2%) | R+69.4 | 2,229 |
| Bear Lake | 219 (10.2%) | 1,819 (84.8%) | R+74.6 | 2,145 |
| Power | 523 (26.9%) | 1,327 (68.2%) | R+41.3 | 1,947 |
| Adams | 380 (22.0%) | 1,262 (73.0%) | R+51.1 | 1,728 |
| Custer | 380 (22.2%) | 1,244 (72.8%) | R+50.6 | 1,709 |
| Oneida | 161 (10.2%) | 1,345 (84.9%) | R+74.7 | 1,585 |
| Lincoln | 259 (20.9%) | 916 (74.1%) | R+53.2 | 1,237 |
| Lewis | 202 (17.0%) | 928 (78.0%) | R+61.0 | 1,189 |
| Butte | 120 (12.4%) | 796 (82.6%) | R+70.0 | 964 |
| Camas | 102 (21.7%) | 345 (73.4%) | R+51.7 | 470 |
| Clark | 32 (14.9%) | 172 (80.0%) | R+65.6 | 215 |
Model benchmark — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast.
Counties colored by the projected margin — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast above. Hover a county for its numbers.
Both chambers carry the Call the Map state legislature forecast — the same model the Chamber Board publishes.
Republicans are favored to hold control. Republicans hold 29 of 35 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 5.1 of 35 · 80% range 4–6
See all 35 districts →Republicans are favored to hold control. Republicans hold 61 of 70 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 10.3 of 70 · 80% range 8–11
See all 35 districts →Chamber-by-chamber detail for every state lives on the full Chamber Board. Control today: NCSL · 2026 State & Legislative Partisan Composition · Jan. 27, 2026
Counties colored by the actual 2024 presidential result — counted votes, not a projection. Hover a county for its numbers.
The county tables and shift arrows across this site measure against these baselines. No president is on the 2026 ballot; this is the reference line every other race here is measured against.
Ballot measures — coming with the Ballotpedia layer.
Trifecta nowRepublican trifecta
| Chamber | Now | Projected |
|---|---|---|
| Senate | R | R |
| House | R | R |