Idaho Governor polls 2026
Terri Pickens (D) vs Brad Little (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
How the forecast reads these polls
the same figures as the race pageThe forecast reads this race two ways and publishes a figure halfway between the two: a weighted average of the 2 polls below that named every candidate puts Little ahead by 22.4 points, its usual method puts Little ahead by 23.2 points, which gives Little ahead by 22.8 points.
In those polls John Stegner averages 11.4%.
The poll average
3 polls countedThe poll average, R+16.7, is of three polls, which run from R+10.0 to R+21.0. That is too few to draw a trend through, so they are listed below, each with its weight.
In governor races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which leaves the average it reads the same for this race.
Every poll on file · 3
newest added first3 in the poll average
| Pollster | Fielded | Sample | Result | Added | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●VoteNexusGeneral · IND sponsor · IND partisan · for Knock Every Door PAC | from Oct 21 | 700 LV | R+19.0Brad Little 49Terri Pickens 30John Stegner 10Don't know 7Paul Sand 4every candidate namedBrad Little 52.7Terri Pickens 32.3John Stegner 10.8 | 5d ago | 0.67 | Poll document |
| ●Advanced Targeting ResearchGeneral | 700 RV | R+10.0Brad Little 37Terri Pickens 27 | 0.44 | Poll document | ||
| ●Change ResearchGeneral · IND sponsor · IND partisan | from Jul 28 | 1,213 LV | R+21.0Brad Little 53Generic Democrat 32Don't know 13Would not vote 2+3 other releasesevery candidate namedBrad Little 55.8Terri Pickens 31.4John Stegner 12.8 | 0.34 | Poll document |
Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.