Senate
Chance of D control80 in 100
Democrats are favored to hold control. Democrats hold 16 of 29 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 21.4 of 30 · 80% range 25–29
See all 16 districts →One state, every federal race and the provisional balance of power in its capitol.
No U.S. Senate seat in Vermontis on the 2026 ballot — both of the state's seats are mid-cycle. Senate control still runs through the 35 races on the national Senate map.
Counties colored by the projected margin — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast above. Hover a county for its numbers.
| Chittenden | 41,754 (54.4%) | 32,531 (42.3%) | D+12.0 | 76,820 |
| Washington | 12,198 (43.7%) | 14,816 (53.0%) | R+9.4 | 27,936 |
| Windsor | 10,128 (37.4%) | 16,084 (59.3%) | R+22.0 | 27,107 |
| Rutland | 5,298 (19.6%) | 20,810 (77.1%) | R+57.5 | 26,999 |
| Franklin | 3,536 (16.7%) | 16,924 (80.0%) | R+63.3 | 21,158 |
| Windham | 7,989 (39.0%) | 11,828 (57.7%) | R+18.7 | 20,493 |
| Addison | 6,593 (36.9%) | 10,664 (59.8%) | R+22.8 | 17,846 |
| Bennington | 4,478 (27.3%) | 11,359 (69.4%) | R+42.0 | 16,377 |
| Orange | 4,010 (28.7%) | 9,502 (68.0%) | R+39.3 | 13,973 |
| Caledonia | 3,660 (27.9%) | 9,041 (68.8%) | R+41.0 | 13,134 |
| Lamoille | 3,970 (33.8%) | 7,401 (62.9%) | R+29.2 | 11,759 |
| Orleans | 1,787 (15.3%) | 9,506 (81.4%) | R+66.1 | 11,678 |
| Grand Isle | 1,365 (34.5%) | 2,462 (62.2%) | R+27.7 | 3,958 |
| Essex | 344 (12.7%) | 2,283 (84.0%) | R+71.3 | 2,717 |
Model benchmark — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast.
Senate carries the Call the Map state legislature forecast; House carries no published control probability in this edition.
Democrats are favored to hold control. Democrats hold 16 of 29 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 21.4 of 30 · 80% range 25–29
See all 16 districts →The district-by-district results for this chamber don't yet roll up into a chamber-wide total the model will stand behind, so no control probability is published. The seat estimate below is still the model's.
Expected Democratic seats 87.0 of 150 · 80% range 73–101
See all 109 districts →Chamber-by-chamber detail for every state lives on the full Chamber Board. Control today: NCSL · 2026 State & Legislative Partisan Composition · Jan. 27, 2026
Counties colored by the actual 2024 presidential result — counted votes, not a projection. Hover a county for its numbers.
The county tables and shift arrows across this site measure against these baselines. No president is on the 2026 ballot; this is the reference line every other race here is measured against.
Ballot measures — coming with the Ballotpedia layer.
Trifecta nowSplit control
| Chamber | Now | Projected |
|---|---|---|
| Senate | D | D |
| House | D | D |