Senate
Chance of D control>99 in 100
Democrats are favored to hold control. Democrats hold 35 of 40 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 34.9 of 40 · 80% range 33–38
See all 40 districts →One state, every federal race and the provisional balance of power in its capitol.
Counties colored by the projected margin — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast above. Hover a county for its numbers.
| Middlesex | 396,550 (67.4%) | 176,261 (29.9%) | D+37.4 | 588,706 |
| Worcester | 159,017 (52.2%) | 137,289 (45.1%) | D+7.1 | 304,528 |
| Essex | 166,525 (57.3%) | 116,316 (40.0%) | D+17.3 | 290,690 |
| Norfolk | 171,878 (61.7%) | 99,316 (35.6%) | D+26.0 | 278,719 |
| Plymouth | 111,974 (51.6%) | 99,373 (45.7%) | D+5.8 | 217,212 |
| Suffolk | 159,063 (73.6%) | 51,123 (23.7%) | D+50.0 | 216,019 |
| Bristol | 95,834 (47.6%) | 100,108 (49.7%) | R+2.1 | 201,379 |
| Hampden | 77,898 (51.6%) | 69,104 (45.7%) | D+5.8 | 151,081 |
| Barnstable | 62,333 (58.0%) | 42,284 (39.3%) | D+18.6 | 107,520 |
| Hampshire | 42,219 (68.8%) | 17,464 (28.5%) | D+40.4 | 61,339 |
| Berkshire | 33,480 (67.4%) | 14,878 (29.9%) | D+37.4 | 49,700 |
| Franklin | 20,349 (66.5%) | 9,408 (30.8%) | D+35.8 | 30,583 |
| Dukes | 6,554 (74.2%) | 2,042 (23.1%) | D+51.1 | 8,835 |
| Nantucket | 3,379 (65.6%) | 1,632 (31.7%) | D+33.9 | 5,150 |
Model benchmark — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast.
Counties colored by the projected margin — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast above. Hover a county for its numbers.
Both chambers carry the Call the Map state legislature forecast — the same model the Chamber Board publishes.
Democrats are favored to hold control. Democrats hold 35 of 40 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 34.9 of 40 · 80% range 33–38
See all 40 districts →Democrats are favored to hold control. Democrats hold 134 of 159 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 134.6 of 160 · 80% range 128–144
See all 160 districts →Chamber-by-chamber detail for every state lives on the full Chamber Board. Control today: NCSL · 2026 State & Legislative Partisan Composition · Jan. 27, 2026
Counties colored by the actual 2024 presidential result — counted votes, not a projection. Hover a county for its numbers.
The county tables and shift arrows across this site measure against these baselines. No president is on the 2026 ballot; this is the reference line every other race here is measured against.
Ballot measures — coming with the Ballotpedia layer.
Trifecta nowDemocratic trifecta
| Chamber | Now | Projected |
|---|---|---|
| Senate | D | D |
| House | D | D |