Senate
Chance of R control>99 in 100
Republicans are favored to hold control. Republicans hold 40 of 48 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 8.0 of 48 · 80% range 4–12
See all 48 districts →One state, every federal race and the provisional balance of power in its capitol.
Counties colored by the projected margin — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast above. Hover a county for its numbers.
| Oklahoma | 102,679 (48.6%) | 103,291 (48.8%) | R+0.3 | 211,468 |
| Tulsa | 78,509 (41.7%) | 104,659 (55.7%) | R+13.9 | 188,058 |
| Cleveland | 36,636 (42.0%) | 48,407 (55.4%) | R+13.5 | 87,313 |
| Canadian | 15,525 (29.0%) | 36,568 (68.4%) | R+39.3 | 53,484 |
| Rogers | 7,515 (21.9%) | 25,920 (75.5%) | R+53.6 | 34,328 |
| Wagoner | 6,904 (24.5%) | 20,543 (72.9%) | R+48.4 | 28,180 |
| Comanche | 9,508 (37.9%) | 14,933 (59.5%) | R+21.6 | 25,093 |
| Creek | 4,935 (21.5%) | 17,387 (75.9%) | R+54.3 | 22,918 |
| Payne | 7,880 (36.8%) | 12,993 (60.6%) | R+23.9 | 21,430 |
| Pottawatomie | 5,408 (25.7%) | 15,104 (71.7%) | R+46.0 | 21,060 |
| Grady | 3,355 (18.1%) | 14,669 (79.3%) | R+61.1 | 18,505 |
| Muskogee | 5,495 (30.8%) | 11,868 (66.6%) | R+35.7 | 17,827 |
| Logan | 4,399 (24.9%) | 12,816 (72.5%) | R+47.6 | 17,675 |
| Washington | 4,310 (25.4%) | 12,210 (72.0%) | R+46.6 | 16,961 |
| Garfield | 3,593 (22.5%) | 11,979 (74.9%) | R+52.4 | 15,988 |
| McClain | 2,984 (19.1%) | 12,270 (78.3%) | R+59.3 | 15,661 |
| Osage | 4,351 (28.8%) | 10,354 (68.6%) | R+39.8 | 15,098 |
| Carter | 3,170 (22.2%) | 10,723 (75.2%) | R+52.9 | 14,264 |
| Le Flore | 2,358 (17.2%) | 11,011 (80.2%) | R+63.0 | 13,726 |
| Stephens | 2,385 (17.5%) | 10,889 (79.9%) | R+62.4 | 13,628 |
| Delaware | 2,575 (19.4%) | 10,334 (78.0%) | R+58.5 | 13,254 |
| Cherokee | 4,335 (33.2%) | 8,371 (64.2%) | R+30.9 | 13,045 |
| Bryan | 2,646 (20.3%) | 10,052 (77.1%) | R+56.8 | 13,037 |
| Pittsburg | 2,582 (20.1%) | 9,945 (77.3%) | R+57.2 | 12,861 |
| Mayes | 2,634 (20.7%) | 9,751 (76.7%) | R+56.0 | 12,716 |
| Kay | 3,051 (24.6%) | 9,006 (72.8%) | R+48.1 | 12,379 |
| Sequoyah | 2,155 (18.9%) | 8,953 (78.5%) | R+59.6 | 11,405 |
| Lincoln | 2,010 (17.8%) | 9,015 (79.6%) | R+61.9 | 11,319 |
| Pontotoc | 2,906 (26.2%) | 7,911 (71.2%) | R+45.1 | 11,106 |
| Okmulgee | 2,974 (28.3%) | 7,255 (69.1%) | R+40.8 | 10,502 |
| McCurtain | 1,260 (15.2%) | 6,802 (82.2%) | R+67.0 | 8,277 |
| Ottawa | 1,865 (22.8%) | 6,103 (74.6%) | R+51.8 | 8,181 |
| Garvin | 1,334 (16.6%) | 6,502 (80.8%) | R+64.2 | 8,045 |
| Custer | 1,690 (22.7%) | 5,559 (74.7%) | R+52.0 | 7,442 |
| Caddo | 1,803 (25.9%) | 4,966 (71.5%) | R+45.5 | 6,950 |
| McIntosh | 1,438 (23.3%) | 4,578 (74.1%) | R+50.9 | 6,177 |
| Jackson | 1,191 (20.2%) | 4,550 (77.2%) | R+57.0 | 5,894 |
| Seminole | 1,454 (24.7%) | 4,281 (72.7%) | R+48.0 | 5,888 |
| Beckham | 803 (14.3%) | 4,671 (83.1%) | R+68.8 | 5,620 |
| Woodward | 715 (13.4%) | 4,498 (84.0%) | R+70.7 | 5,352 |
| Adair | 962 (18.1%) | 4,211 (79.3%) | R+61.2 | 5,311 |
| Pawnee | 1,007 (20.0%) | 3,898 (77.4%) | R+57.4 | 5,036 |
| Kingfisher | 680 (13.8%) | 4,134 (83.6%) | R+69.9 | 4,943 |
| Marshall | 863 (17.9%) | 3,835 (79.5%) | R+61.6 | 4,823 |
| Craig | 899 (20.3%) | 3,418 (77.1%) | R+56.8 | 4,432 |
| Murray | 808 (18.8%) | 3,387 (78.6%) | R+59.9 | 4,307 |
| Atoka | 575 (13.9%) | 3,461 (83.5%) | R+69.6 | 4,144 |
| Choctaw | 702 (17.0%) | 3,318 (80.4%) | R+63.4 | 4,127 |
| Texas | 592 (15.5%) | 3,119 (81.9%) | R+66.3 | 3,810 |
| Noble | 749 (20.6%) | 2,785 (76.8%) | R+56.1 | 3,628 |
| Haskell | 534 (14.8%) | 2,985 (82.6%) | R+67.9 | 3,613 |
| Pushmataha | 458 (13.3%) | 2,894 (84.1%) | R+70.8 | 3,441 |
| Hughes | 620 (18.2%) | 2,701 (79.2%) | R+61.1 | 3,410 |
| Washita | 410 (12.0%) | 2,906 (85.3%) | R+73.3 | 3,405 |
| Nowata | 534 (16.0%) | 2,717 (81.4%) | R+65.4 | 3,338 |
| Love | 513 (16.5%) | 2,524 (80.9%) | R+64.5 | 3,118 |
| Johnston | 512 (16.5%) | 2,504 (80.9%) | R+64.3 | 3,096 |
| Latimer | 505 (16.9%) | 2,402 (80.5%) | R+63.6 | 2,985 |
| Okfuskee | 633 (21.7%) | 2,210 (75.7%) | R+54.0 | 2,919 |
| Blaine | 497 (17.9%) | 2,202 (79.5%) | R+61.5 | 2,771 |
| Woods | 454 (17.0%) | 2,140 (80.4%) | R+63.3 | 2,663 |
| Major | 243 (9.5%) | 2,237 (87.9%) | R+78.3 | 2,546 |
| Kiowa | 487 (20.3%) | 1,850 (77.1%) | R+56.8 | 2,399 |
| Coal | 258 (13.9%) | 1,552 (83.5%) | R+69.7 | 1,858 |
| Tillman | 372 (20.1%) | 1,434 (77.3%) | R+57.3 | 1,854 |
| Cotton | 291 (15.9%) | 1,495 (81.5%) | R+65.7 | 1,834 |
| Jefferson | 236 (13.6%) | 1,457 (83.8%) | R+70.2 | 1,738 |
| Dewey | 153 (9.4%) | 1,426 (88.0%) | R+78.5 | 1,621 |
| Alfalfa | 174 (11.0%) | 1,366 (86.4%) | R+75.4 | 1,581 |
| Beaver | 119 (7.7%) | 1,396 (89.8%) | R+82.1 | 1,555 |
| Grant | 217 (14.0%) | 1,298 (83.5%) | R+69.5 | 1,555 |
| Greer | 224 (16.7%) | 1,085 (80.7%) | R+64.0 | 1,344 |
| Ellis | 143 (10.8%) | 1,149 (86.7%) | R+75.8 | 1,326 |
| Roger Mills | 118 (9.3%) | 1,117 (88.1%) | R+78.7 | 1,268 |
| Harper | 108 (10.2%) | 926 (87.2%) | R+77.1 | 1,062 |
| Cimarron | 48 (7.0%) | 618 (90.4%) | R+83.3 | 684 |
| Harmon | 122 (18.9%) | 507 (78.5%) | R+59.8 | 646 |
Model benchmark — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast.
Counties colored by the projected margin — the 2024 result shifted by the state's projected swing, summing exactly to the forecast above. Hover a county for its numbers.
Both chambers carry the Call the Map state legislature forecast — the same model the Chamber Board publishes.
Republicans are favored to hold control. Republicans hold 40 of 48 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 8.0 of 48 · 80% range 4–12
See all 48 districts →Republicans are favored to hold control. Republicans hold 81 of 101 seats today.
Expected Democratic seats 18.7 of 101 · 80% range 16–22
See all 101 districts →Chamber-by-chamber detail for every state lives on the full Chamber Board. Control today: NCSL · 2026 State & Legislative Partisan Composition · Jan. 27, 2026
Counties colored by the actual 2024 presidential result — counted votes, not a projection. Hover a county for its numbers.
The county tables and shift arrows across this site measure against these baselines. No president is on the 2026 ballot; this is the reference line every other race here is measured against.
Ballot measures — coming with the Ballotpedia layer.
Trifecta nowRepublican trifecta
| Chamber | Now | Projected |
|---|---|---|
| Senate | R | R |
| House | R | R |