Louisiana

SenateR+16.6

U.S. House · projectedD 1 · R 5

GovernorNo 2026 race

2024 presidentR+22.0

Forecast as of October 28, 2026. U.S. Senate: Julia Letlow ahead of Jamie Davis by R+16.6, with a 96 in 100 chance to win. U.S. House: Democrats are favored in 1 of the state's 6 districts and Republicans in 5.

Closest races

U.S. SenateJamie Davis vs. Julia LetlowLikely RR+16.6 LA-06FlipA Republican vs. Chauna Banks, Patrick Forbes or Lindsay GarciaSolid RR+22.7 LA-05A Republican vs. Dan McKay, Patricia Moore or Antonio WilsonSolid RR+24.5 LA-04Mike Johnson vs. Conrad Cable or Matt GromlichSolid RR+27.9

Projected delegation: D 1 · R 5

LA-01Steve Scalise vs. Lauren JewettSolid RR+31.3 LA-02Troy Carter vs. Peter WilliamsSolid DD+50.3 LA-03Clay Higgins vs. John Day, Priscilla Gonzalez or Caleb WalkerSolid RR+29.6 LA-04Mike Johnson vs. Conrad Cable or Matt GromlichSolid RR+27.9 LA-05A Republican vs. Dan McKay, Patricia Moore or Antonio WilsonSolid RR+24.5 LA-06FlipA Republican vs. Chauna Banks, Patrick Forbes or Lindsay GarciaSolid RR+22.7

How Louisiana decides its electionsone exception

U.S. HouseLouisiana — all-party November ballot, December runoff on December 12, 2026Every candidate appears on one November ballot and a majority is needed to finish it. Our forecast simulates the November vote only; it does not model the December runoff, so this is a chance to lead, not a chance ultimately to take office.