New Mexico

SenateD+17.5

U.S. House · projectedD 3 · R 0

GovernorD+7.0

2024 presidentD+6.0

Forecast as of October 28, 2026. U.S. Senate: Ben Ray Luján ahead of Larry Marker by D+17.5, with a 99 in 100 chance to win. Governor: Deb Haaland ahead of Gregg Hull by D+7.0, with an 85 in 100 chance to win. U.S. House: Democrats are favored in 3 of the state's 3 districts and Republicans in 0.

Closest races

NM-02Gabe Vasquez vs. Greg CunninghamLikely DD+5.9 GovernorDeb Haaland vs. Gregg HullLikely DD+7.0 NM-03Teresa Leger Fernández vs. Martin ZamoraSolid DD+15.9 U.S. SenateBen Ray Luján vs. Larry MarkerSolid DD+17.5

Projected delegation: D 3 · R 0

NM-01Melanie Stansbury vs. Didi OkparekeSolid DD+21.3 NM-02Gabe Vasquez vs. Greg CunninghamLikely DD+5.9 NM-03Teresa Leger Fernández vs. Martin ZamoraSolid DD+15.9