New Mexico Senate polls
Ben Ray Luján (D) vs Larry Marker (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
Poll averageD+16.6the polls’ average, each as published · same figure as the race page
Polls33 on file · 3 in the poll average
Latest field dateOct 9Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-10-09 (15 days old)
EditionOct 23the poll average and its weights as of this edition
The poll average
3 polls countedThe poll average, D+16.6, is of three polls, which run from D+15.0 to D+18.0. That is too few to draw a trend through, so they are listed below, each with its weight.
The forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at a quarter of its weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which leaves the average it reads the same for this race.
Every poll on file · 3
newest first3 in the poll average
| Pollster | Fielded | Sample | Result | Added | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●Research & Polling Inc.General | 1,125 LV | D+16.0Ben Ray Luján 53Larry Marker 37Don't know 10 | 0.78 | Poll release | ||
| ●SurveyUSAGeneral | 567 LV | D+18.0Ben Ray Luján 54Larry Marker 36Don't know 10 | 0.50 | Poll release | ||
| ●Research & Polling Inc.General | 516 LV | D+15.0Ben Ray Luján 53Larry Marker 38Don't know 9 | 0.32 | Poll release |
Archive source date 2026-10-24. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.